Red Lion

Rolled my ATM $112.50 GOOGL puts expiring tomorrow to $110 GOOGL puts expiring next Friday (after earnings) for a $1.20 credit.

I think iBonds are fine, I bought mine, but honestly are they all that much better than other government bonds on the market? For example, you can get 20 year TIPS and get 100 basis points more yield if held to maturity vs. the iBond. I think the iBond is great for holding onto money over a few years as an alternative to a CD or bank account, but not that great long term honestly.

A lot of the TIPS are down this year since the coupons have sky rocketed. So the 20 year tips are up to a 1% yield now started the year negative. So if you were loaded up with those with leverage I can see a 20%+ loss for sure.

Maybe I'm making this too difficult, but I prefer the idea of owning individual bonds to manage my maturity and risk profile. If the numbers on Schwab are correct, all the TIPS cusips that mature on or after October 15 2024 are trading at a positive yield, so one idea I've had is to load up on individual TIPS with close maturities that are still in the positive yield territory, for my purposes I'm thinking maybe the January 2025 TIPS which are about a .25% real yield and shouldn't have much downside if real rates keep spiking.

Anyone looking at TIPS now that the real yields have come up over the last year? I've been maxing out I bond allocations, but I have a lot more money I'd like to put into something like this. Looking at 5 year TIPS, and if I'm understanding right they're paying a 0.5% annual yield adjusted for inflation. When this thread was opened I believe all the TIPS were in the negative yield territory.

Sold GOOGL $112.50 and META $175 puts expiring this Friday. Looking to add to META and start GOOGL positions and round out my portfolio a little bit since I don't have much tech exposure.

Bought back my 7/22 BX and KKR puts for a nice fast profit. Figured no reason to hold these through earnings release on Thursday for bx.

These are some excellent ideas which I will start researching, most of which are new to me. How exciting.

Rolled out my expiring $91 BX PUTS and wrote $87 Strike price puts expiring next Friday, net credit of $0.95

Is anyone looking into this right now. With the euro trading now below parity with the dollar, is anyone finding any special bargains in Euros? It seems like buying real estate might be an interesting play, but this is not something I've researched at all.

Rolled my 7/15 $47 KKR PUTS to the 7/22 $46 strike for the same premium.

Sold KKR $47 puts expiring in 3 days at $0.60.

Bought back my January 2023 KKR $60 PUTS for a loss then wrote $47 puts for July 15 2022. I'm hoping to either get PUT the stock, or at least be able to generate some options income on these super short term puts while the volatility is so high..

Added to KKR.

Sold $91 BX PUTS expiring 7/15/2022 for $0.95 each. If I get put this will be a full position of BX.

Thank you for the advice. I've always shied away from crypto, might consider taking a tiny position in BTC / ETH particularly if the selloff continues or accelerates. Seeing a lot of stocks that I think are a lot more likely not to be a zero though, so that's probably where I will continue to focus.

As an outsider, where would one buy Bitcoin the most safely for an investment? These Crypto companies aren't brokerages, and if your broker goes bankrupt or there's a run on the bank situation, you're SOL / have some claim for pennies on the dollar in a bankruptcy proceeding possibly. So how do you avoid this risk? Keeping BTC on a hard drive or something?

Partially unwound a position I put on against TLT a few months ago. Bought back TLT that I had sold short at about a 6% profit, sold the $123 PUT options I had bought at a profit. I'm still holding onto some $100 and $105 TLT puts that expire in August.

Bought some more KKR.

Sold $90 BX PUTS expiring on 7/08/2022 for $0.50. If these get exercised I'll be up to my full position in BX.

Added a little KKR.

I think you've called the whole housing thing better than anyone else on this board or elsewhere, so I certainly have a lot of respect for your opinion on where housing is going. I tend to agree that we have an insanely strong core housing market. Although, I'm not so sure where things are headed. I don't think it's for a big drop like we had before. I do think there may be some individual markets that are more susceptible to downside, and that's where I might want to be investing. Honestly, I want a damn vacation house, and it pisses me off to no end that they've doubled in price everywhere I want to own one (Tahoe or Hawaii or a sweet ski destination with a major airport). I personally think the most likely outcome for housing is that we have a fairly flat pricing environment for the next few years while rents catch up. Too many tailwinds for prices to drop significantly, but I think 6% interest and the highest house price to household income in memory. I sure wish I had the skillset to build concrete multi family dwellings myself. I love the idea of building 100 year assets at discount that I can depreciate over 27.5 years and change my rents annually. If I could get a 5-6% CAP rate on asset like this I would be in a position to retire. Not that I'm interested in retiring, I'm only 38, and I still want a vacation house in Tahoe, Hawaii, or preferably both, and I have a bunch of kids that I'd like to help out. It's all a moot point since I don't know how to build, and I can't find deals this good probably for all the reasons you cite above. On the other hand, there are a lot of strong businesses trading in the 10-15X FCF range now, and as much as I really want to own real assets directly so I can enjoy huge depreciation benefits along with cash flow resiliency with full control, valuation matters, and some stocks in multiple sectors are starting to look pretty damn attractive in comparison to direct real estate. I do think the homebuilders will do quite well if you're right that housing remains resilient and doesn't crash. I know building costs are coming down finally, volume is down with higher mortgage rates, but as long as house prices stay up it seems like the homebuilders can just print money and are trading at stupid low earnings multiples.

I think there are lots of good deals in the markets right now, but I think we might be quite far from a bottom. I could see the FED raising interest rates until something breaks. I'm not a market expert by any means, but I have not seen signs of forced selling which seem to be the hallmarks of equity bottoms. Maybe this is because people pulled equity out of their homes to invest in the markets rather than using margin loans. I have a large cash position, because I've been hoping for an opportunity to deploy into real estate. Right now I'm seeing a lot more in the public markets that looks interesting, if we see signs of forced selling I'm going to probably consider just putting this money into public markets instead of real estate.

I sold my position a few months ago into the strength for around a 10% long term capital gain and reinvested the money in other areas (that are all underwater right now). I am conflicted, I think the valuation is solid, Juul is a non issue, they've always managed to raise their prices faster than they lose customers, but that certainly seems to be slowing down. If FDA cuts nicotine by 95% in cigarettes, maybe that would be the final nail in the coffin. Are you opposed to tobacco investments generally, or Altria in particular because of its huge exposure to the US regulatory risk?

I've been adding to BX over the last few trading sessions in the low 90s. Would like to build this into a big core position especially if it keeps going down closer in valuation to the other alt managers. Seeing a lot of other companies I've been interested in that I think are buys right now. META/GOOGL/AXP/WMT/LEN.B/MO May be adding to these soon, I've been trying to hold onto more cash for this downturn and add in a more measured pace until we see how far the FED goes with interest rates, and when and where the forced selling starts.