Red Lion

FFH in my retirement account as I continue rebalancing my portfolio there after taking some nice profits.

Closely held stock - 41% Ag property - 13.5% Rental property #1 - 19% Rental property #2 - 13.5% Rental property #3 - 13.5% Rental property #4 - 7% Taxable investment accounts - 10% Tax deferred accounts - 9% Primary Residence - 12% So I'm a total net long of 138.5% with the leverage consisting of deferred tax and mortgages (of 26.5% of my net worth).

What do you plan to reinvest the real estate into? Will there be a big tax drag on this? Are you French? Curious how this works for taxes.

If you're rich enough you can get private security, and assets in other jurisdictions, and fast cars and planes and boats to reach them. Very few people would fall in this category though.

Added some MAA today in my tax deferred account.

You pretty much summed me up in this tip of the iceberg stock scenario. But what you’re discounting is the ability for the private business worth $2 million to outperform the stocks. A private business is an equity investment, and should be held with the intent to outperform a public equity portfolio. I’ve been fortunate to have massively outperformed with some private business investments that are pushing 100 baggers over 10 years. There are no longer amazing opportunities for reinvestment so I’ve been investing into stocks and privately held real estate investments. I’d far rather keep 100% in private business interests and fully leverage my personal residence if I still had a runway on 20-30% ROIC for all of my capital, and would like to leverage that to see even higher ROE. Stocks are an opportunity to maybe compound at 12-15% over the long term after tax if you’re really fantastic at what you do.

Do you have any good ideas in the community bank space? This is not an area I've followed closely, but I'm looking for new sectors to follow.

Momentum trading would be a strategy and value stock would be a stock selling below its fair value. I believe that investors can and have made boatloads of money by momentum trading value stocks. I have recently been dabbling more and more with an approach which has a little hint of momentum bias where one would select a basket of seemingly attractive stocks. Harvest short term losses on the ones that don't work out and reinvest in other seemingly attractive stocks. Don't double down on losers, ever. Consider increasing positions on winners even when it means increasing your cost basis per share and even around all time highs, but only when the business fundamentals are strong and improving, and valuation remains reasonable or even improving. Never Sell? Match gains to tax losses to reinvest in the next best ideas? Sell half the position when a stake doubles, and then let the rest ride for the long term? The selling part is the hard part, and I've certainly left a lot of gains on the table by poor selling discipline or selling too soon. I've significantly improved my returns though by trying to feed the winners and weed the losers. I think very good long term returns will require adding to winners and holding. Sometimes a stock that's beating the market continues to be a great investment. Sometimes a stock will bump against an all time high while the fundamental value keeps increasing. I've seen several of these situations before breakouts with long time compounders.

Are the houses investments and are you counting those as part of your portfolio return? Just curious because I've also been putting a lot of capital into real estate with an acquisition binge in 2023 and a lot of capital improvements in 2024. I'd have a meaningfully larger net worth right now if I'd just stayed in my stock ideas since 2023 and 2024 have been great years in the markets, but I feel like it could have gone the other way as well. I'm pretty comfortable with my large allocation to direct real estate investment right now. I've got about 85% of my net worth at cost invested in private investment real estate, 25% in a closely held business, and 20% investment accounts stocks/tbills. The 30% is all mortgage debt against some of the investment real estate. If we were to see a scenario where mortgage rates decline and I see a lot of opportunities in the public markets (or real estate market) I think I'd still be in a position to take a fair amount of additional leverage to load up on investments, and also refinance my mortgages. Unlike many with real estate investments, I only have some higher rate mortgages taken out recently which can be refinanced accretively (or even paid off)

32.3% for my main account in 2024.

So you don't think the senate should have confirmation hearings? Mitch didn't prevent Obama from appointing anyone, the senate failed to confirm Garland, that's it. Do you really think Schumer wouldn't have done the same thing if the shoe was on the other foot?

$500. That's how much I had when I decided to quit my job and make my own way 15 years ago. I think "fuck you" is more of a mindset than a dollar amount.

I thought rates were close to 6 on most fixed annuities today? Annuities are superior products for a handful of reasons, usually related to great deferred tax treatment for some taxable legal settlements and plaintiff attorney legal fees. If a plaintiff lawyer in a high tax state makes $10 million in a year but elects to roll it tax deferred into a 5.5% annuity that's the equivalent to an 11% low risk ROI which then probably also gets taxed at a lower bracket as the payments are received. Similar concept with a taxable legal settlement. I feel like they could also play a valuable role in a high net worth portfolio in lieu of muni bonds based on how the math works out head to head. Agreed that they're inferior for most other purposes.

I don't want to slander CG, and I need to revisit the idea to give it a fair shake. However, I developed an opinion that CG is something of a perennial underperformer in terms of AUM growth and with a greater component of carried interest than its competitors. This opinion was developed several years back, and I think that proved out to be true over a number of years, but I haven't done a deep dive since 2019 or 2020. I also decided to exit brookfield and focus more on OWL/KKR/APO/BX. I need to revisit Brookfield and CG again, possibly BAM. I just have a feeling we might be seeing some significant equity market volatility next year, and I'd like to use this as a position of strength to jump back into my favorites. I am continuing to hold big positions in OWL and APO, but don't feel like they're at super attractive entry points. Yet I wrote that about APO when I started the topic (that it wasn't a great entry point) and it's over doubled since then. I need to stop trading so much, I'm sure it's hurting my returns.

I don't have a specific valuation, it's more that I feel that this is a fair multiple for the combined CP/KSU business if they're able to execute on their synergies/revenue growth/margin improvement goals set out at the investor day. Management is projecting mid double digit EPS growth through 2028. I'm not backing up the truck yet, but I've sniffed around the railroads for years and always end up missing good entry points waiting for a better valuation. I also think that CP has been selling off on some idea that the Trump Trade is bad for trade with Mexico. I just don't buy that argument at all, I think onshoring will lead to more trade with Mexico and Canada than ever before. Right now I've been recycling some gains inside my tax deferred accounts and dabbling in a few different ideas as I get more comfortable with them. This is usually my strategy, but I'm trying to diversify away from my favorite subsector (the alternative asset managers) since I've seen what happens to them in choppy markets and it's not pretty.

Upgraded my tracking position in CP to a starter position. Thank you @Dinar for bringing this back to my radar. I've been working on the valuation for the last 6 weeks or so, and am comfortable enough here to increase my exposure especially since I've been taking profits on some other positions lately and don't want to be all cash.

I just added to CPT and JOE, and started a new position in MAA. All inside my tax deferred account.

Apparently not CLPR.

I agree with that, at least post 2007, although quite a number of people have experienced an economic environment pre 2007 GFC easy money era. It seems to me that easy money is almost certain to continue, because it's the path of lease resistance to continue funding entitlement spending. I think the rising interest rates and QT of the last couple years are nothing but a hiccup in the long run QE/low interest rates trend. If you think the FED/treasury are going to allow us to go back to a super tight monetary policy system for a long period of time, I just don't see how the math works with some much debt compared to the size of the economy. IT's much easier to sustain low interest rate / QE / financial engineering to manipulate interest rates. Combined with the strongest economy in the world, I think the USA can probably keep chugging along quite a long time on this manipulated loose money high debt formula.

Chat gpt prompt: write a stock recommendation for Berkshire Hathaway in the rhetorical style of Whitney Tilson.

What's more interesting to me is to see what happens after they arrest a suspect. It's fairly obviously a premeditated killing, but if this is some sort of revenge killing after losing a family member due to denied claims for example, would a jury unanimously convict him of murder? Seems like a possible jury nullification type case.

Trimmed more APO and OWL in retirement accounts. Sold PM in retirement account as well.

We were both posting about APO and buying shares over on the APO thread and the what are you buying thread and the banking thread. I wish I had an idea like this now.

I've been trimming some big winners in my 401k and raised 40% cash which is currently parked in very short duration T-bills. I also raised some cash in taxable accounts by doing a cash-out refi on an investment property at 60% LTV (at 6.6% APR on a 30 year mortgage). It's been a good several years, and so far I'm up 36% in 2024 after a great 2022 and 2023. I'm honestly not market timing, but unfortunately my favorite investments are all priced, if not for perfection, at least for an excellent future, and I have a quite concentrated stock portfolio. I'm not a full time investor, although it feels like my most important job these days. I plan to spend time doing more research and deploy most of this capital opportunistically. I'm sure I'll find something more attractive than T-bills in fairly short order. If I don't find something compelling, I'll probably get back to selling short duration puts while I continue looking. Right now my largest publicly traded positions are JOE, APO, OWL, BTI, PM, CPT, OXY/WT, but my stock allocation is the lowest it's been in the last few years. I've taken significant profits from APO, OWL, and PM over the last few weeks, and some less significant profits on a few other smaller positions.

And then the rug got pulled and they all switched to heroin. And then the heroin got contaminated with fentanyl. All over the last 12 years.