Cod Liver Oil

@Spekulatius having no health insurance is not a realistic option either. But having an intermediary which is in direct conflict with both the customer and the provider makes no structural sense. The problem is big enough that Buffett and Bezos tried to tackle it and gave up after a couple of years. As a thought exercise, I invite you, @Gregmal, @Parsad, @Marco Van Basten, @Luke and @MMM20 to help design a schematic which is less bad. It's a glowing red low bar, but I bet we could do better. DM me if you want to try.

It is an epically bad idea to have a profit taking enterprise between consumers and healthcare providers. The incentive structure is totally perverse; both doctors and patients are, of course, miserable. Crappy health outcomes and unrealistic costs erode American morale. Sorry to be Debby Downer but this is a bitch in our system.

More Nintendo every day around 18, like vitamins. Might go unreasonably large around $16.

I own some of this. It is very cheap but has been meh like most downstream "value" entities. I remain willfully deluded with my ultra cheap Bollore, Odet and Exor. Most of the time, the upstream entities do better: BN, UMG, Tencent, FFH etc... There are only about 7 incels in the world interested in this stuff. Buy the principal entity even if it doesn't scream as cheap.

Adding to Nintendo. Legitimate business momentum with a long runway. Some people object to their $12bn in net cash and see it as anal retentive capital allocation but I see a bank attached to Luigi's hondos.

@Parsad We made a bunch of money for foundations to give to worthy causes!!!!!! Risk capital funneled into good works. All invisible!!!!!

I'm inclined to agree with Junior. My friend at Lloyds said the average age of agents is 59 and half of the industry is set to retire in the next 5 years: the brokerages are happy to ease out the expensive paper pushers and replace the hack work with AI so the cost side will benefit. My own experience in non-comodified markets says the intermediary is here to stay. As the world gets more complicated and risky, the intermediate mansplainer becomes an important strategist and soothsayer. RE agents and art dealers play a biblical role in human transactions. Risk of loss is a deep psychological fear; people will over-invest to prevent ruin and sleep well at night.

Sold M. Thank you @Parsad!!!!! I'll plow that back into UMG, ABNB and AJG soonish.

Buying UMG to go with Bollore and Odet. The Vivendi trial will resolve soon. It's a good asset stuck in that weedy area near Giants stadium. Bodies eventually float to the surface. Happy Thanksgiving to all the hilarious characters on here!!!!!

Historic low in consumer sentiment so more AMRZ and EXOR. SOTP rarely works but its comfort food.

Filling out AMRZ and EXOR positions.

Getting a quality compounder vibe from AJG and AMRZ. Insiders adding plus good channel checks. The siren song of AI spend is leaving some solid businesses neglected.

Adding to AJG. My bro at Everest has a lot of respect for them and thinks they are ahead of the competition on AI and automation for claims processing. Feels like GARP to me. I hate falling knives but let's see if $240 is a decent entry.

This company is looking for a board member with expertise in cellular biology:

@Valuebo we own Bollore and Odet 50/50. I like the shrinkage at that pair as well as at Ferrari/Exor.

Bought some AJG. A bro in the industry said they are getting into more complex structures of risk sharing with insurers/captive/syndicates and hedge fund type investors which is high margin business. Does this banker type stuff worry you @dealraker?

More Exor and Bollore. I see them as stores of value, nothing too sexy. Starter in AJG; a bro who works for a competitor said they should do very well over the next few years if they keep executing on the Re side.

Adding to Exor. Its hard to see how the the EV thing effects the allure of the ICE but I like the way Elkann is handing it. 40% of Ferrari buyers are <40 yo and half own more than 5 cars. Regardless, Ferrari is a good business and will be around for a while. I am impressed he had the balls to sell 7mm shares when he did not need the liquidity. He is steering toward health and technology as Stellantis shrinks in importance. He joined the Meta board so he can see what's happening in tech in real time. He is saying and doing the right things at the right time and price. It will be slow, but things are developing nicely here with both Ferrari and Exor retiring stock.

Is anyone short gold/long oil?

I may make Exor a decent size. Elkann is programmed correctly even though he presents lily white. The Ferrari transition to the EV era could actually work out. He understands his mission to upgrade the portfolio from industrial era assets to health and tech. His seat on the Meta board, which is a commitment he certainly doesn't need, gives him a seat at the American tech table. I don’t think he will squander the current liquidity. Let’s see his next moves with the Economist, Philips and the legacy car business.

HA!!!!!! @Marco Van Basten we own Bollore/Odet in equal parts I am happy to own the surviving entity for the long term and will be ok with a squeeze premium, should it happen, on the rest. Are you referring to taxation on a future UMG spin as well? Have owned the bulk of the position since Covid.

More Bollore. It looks like a bond in an appreciating currency with a free call attached.

@tnathan and @Spekulatius the velocity of capital flowing into AI and chips is breathtaking; it creates a vacuum behind it which leaves a bunch of boring insurance, RE and aggregate businesses sucking wind. My bro at Google confirms they cannot get the chips they need to build stuff. Adding to Amrize and Bollore.

Yeah, my phone screen lousy with aggressive ads here. Help!!!!

Have been adding to Amrize. I'm thinking data centers, onshoring, roll-ups, deferred infra maintenance and spin off mechanics will turn the stones into cojones.