Cod Liver Oil

Adding MSGE to the PE RE bucket.

My long for 2025 is JOE because at $47 everyone knows the overhang problem and no one knows the solution. The curtain will be pulled back in the next few months and there will be less reason not to own it. My short is MSTR at 405. All the btc skeptics have capitulated (myself included) and Saylor needs a lot more fiber in his diet. Not investment advice

Capital gains tax and taxation in general influences my investing behavior significantly. Druk and other great money runners who handle OPM evolve to be pre-tax investors and remain so even after they retire into a family office. Buffett is unique in that way. Pretax returns are what attracts capital even when you have 28% tax friction plus whatever egregious fees you can extract. Alpha becomes delta quickly. Taxes unintentionally make us better investors by moving us toward the punch card.

@Parsad can you list a few legitimate food banks here please?

Mo' Joe; I'm buying Bruce's stock. It's PE at this point.

https://fortune.com/2024/11/24/elon-musk-f35-stealth-fighter-drones-pentagon-weapons-doge-lockheed/ I guess Musk is in charge of the Pentagon now. @dealraker should we sell our defense companies?

Marc Rebillet is comic genius but the gould/liszt/beethoven combination is great to drive the kids to school.

When a bitcoin entrepreneur buys a $6 million banana and eats it. Not sure if this is peak something. https://fortune.com/2024/11/21/justin-sun-tron-comedian-banana-artwork-sothebys-elon-musk-space/

Cautiously buying some Nike <75. Hopefully Trump will not cut off his nose as he shakes down Xi with tariffs. Might suffer from premature accumulation here but I’m pretty sure it’s worth more than 2 times sales.

https://www.blinknow.org/ This woman is doing amazing work with orphans in Nepal. We will be supporting her; local girl (Mendham, NJ) makes good.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-just-harder-europeans-says-104346801.html For people, character may be fate. For companies, it’s regulation.

Sold a bunch of Joe March 50 puts. Joe and FRPH are in the coffee can.

My friend runs this one and it’s great: https://cureblindness.org/ I also like Greg’s idea of random acts of kindness like leaving huge tips or helping strangers in unexpected ways. Being involved in a hands on way in your community is also very fulfilling. I prefer a personal rather than institutional approach but foundations skew towards naming rights and other forms of puffery.

A couple of my clients are foundations with wide charters. Do you guys know of any charities which do good work and most of the money gets to the people who need it? Thank you!!!

Great interview about the music business:

Yes!!!!! RTO is a classic Peter Lynch dirty business involving rodents, insects, poison and waste tied together with a subscription bow. I enjoy owning RTO and Dior together: beauty and the beast. I think the beast will best the beauty over the next year or two because pestilence never goes out of style.

Yes, the EU is a mess. Luxury is also a mess. But I have a soft spot in my heart for dynastic French families so I am adding to Dior at 16 times today. I like what Arnault is doing in real estate with Catterton. National and familial DNA seem to be merging. L’etat, c’est moi kind of thing.

Chesky has a very good approach. In tennis, we would say he has soft hands. IMO he is a creative problem solver who will make it work.

@Sweet I agree and think the stock goes lower from here but has the DNA of a great investment when the stars align. Could make it large below 100 if Chesky lubricates the sticking points.

Many busted growth stocks: LULU, NKE, SBUX, PDD, ABNB. I bought some LULU and ABNB and could see making Chesky large under the right circumstances. He was a competitive bodybuilder and it is well known that CEOs who deadlift have superior returns. I actually think there is greatness lurking beneath the growing pains. Yes, I have worked around the ABNB platform several times myself but they invented and dominate the category. You have to get the timing right with cyclical growth companies but I think we have the right owner/operator running a powerful toll booth type monster.

Starter in OXY. Net margins, already good at 17%, are going up as costs go down: The average time it takes to drill a well dropped from 35 days to 14 in the last two years. The cost has plummeted from $4.5 million to $2.6 million. The average drill cost per foot was lowered from $245 to $143 as tech improves rapidly. (Thank you @DooDiligence). Hollub is solid. Oil may be a good hedge on the macro. Clean energy is dragging its ass and cannot handle Increasing energy demand. Berkshire/Abel have a forensic understanding of the domestic energy picture and find these assets valuable. How Booming Electricity Demand Is Stalling Efforts to Retire Coal and Gas: https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/electricity-demand-coal-gas-retirement-charts-dd07029a?st=475hq4x900m88gc&reflink=article_imessage_share I am making a case for systemic profit expansion but maybe this is just a commodity shitco in shiny Buffet wrapping. Please let me know.

Alo is trying to out-Croc Lulu but, according to my 20-something sources, is an inferior product. The category is growing well enough that even if Alo takes some share, Lulu will continue to do well.

Starting Dior as it drifts sub 600.

Knees Over Toes (Ben Patrick) is 11. Most of his stuff is free on YT. He will get you fit, strong and mobile with no injuries.

UMG to go with Bollore, Odet, Sony, Nintendo, MSG complex in the music/entertainment space. I like focused clumping.