Castanza

https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/197/11/ An interesting ruling which I'm sure we will begin to see (if not already mentioned) in the news.

Great show so far. I'd also recommend ZeroZeroZero (Prime)... similar feel to the movie Sicario. Also, recently added to Netflix: WACO and The Last Dance. I'll check it out, thanks Traveling Salesman (2012) is also decent. - about P vs NP and potential implications - Has a very "indie" feel and can be found on YT for free.

SC - Santander Consumer USA Maybe?

"The direct use of physical force is so poor a solution to the problem of limited resources that it is commonly employed only by small children and great nations" --David Friedman, "The Machinery of Freedom". Not only do we need to spend trillions to secure these resources, but we also need to prevent investment in renewables because that’s #socialism. Trump bailout for oil workers incoming in 3...2... Subsidies are prevalent on both sides of the energy aisle (GND comes to mind albeit a different flavor). I'm all for clean energy, and I think without all this lobbying, special interests, government intervention, etc. We could have been there a long time ago. Anyways I don't want to derail the thread, but certainly interesting to see considering 100 years of wars have been fought over oil. Always drawing keep the posts coming. Certainly entertaining!

I wish Ray Hudson would read the commentary between rb and alwaysdrawing ;D Took a small short position for entertainment as well. Thanks for the idea!

Devs - Alex Garland on Hulu was really well done and worth a watch. - A blend of tech and philosophy

Yes, I watched this a while ago. I am a bit of a WW1 nerd. Got fascinated with it when my dad showed me a pic of my great grandfather in front of a huge artillery piece in a desolate landscape somewhere in France. If you want a literal description of a soldiers view of WW1, read Ernst Jüngers book “ In Stahlgewittern” (Storm of steel), which you can download as freeware if look around. I will give it a read for sure. Also a few good resources for reading letter directly. https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/education/resources/letters-first-world-war-1915/ There was one I read (not sure if it's from this site) where a soldier documented a patrol and how he tripped and fell on a dead body. He said his hand went through the body as if it were made of soft cheese when he went to catch himself. Absolutely gruesome and unimaginable.

Amazing to think we've been at war for 30+ years over oil. And here we are in an environment where you can't pay people to take it.

What's this say about other commodities? If you have an old beater you could try this.

A sorry excuse for a leader. So is the Governor of Virginia. You know, the guy who can't follow the Constitution, likes to dress up in blackface, and would kill babies after birth. Is he a great leader in your opinion? I want to hold my tongue here, so instead of saying that's a pretty ignorant thing to say, I will say hmmm... you think so. That is an interesting opinion. To paraphrase the late Daniel Moynihan you are entitled to your own opinions, but not your own facts. To wit, I don't think anything you said about the gov Northam is really true. re Northam: One could argue rightfully that he doesn't have the same interpretation of the constitution that you do. As to the black face, there is constitutional statute of limitation for one's college stupidities, (Eighth Amendment if memory serves) ;) (sortof fact) And the baby killing statement is a willful misinterpretation. For the record he was talking about non-viable fetuses. Look, he's a doctor and the nuance on his statements on this was lost in the brouhaha. So no he is not a 'baby-killer'. Trump, on the other hand, is never nuanced. He seems to be quite challenged by the constitution. He is a paragon nothing save narcissistic socio-pathy. He is a mentally ill man with no morals who is utterly out of his depth generally and this crisis is telling. Back to the prez and coronavirus: Sadly, people have (and will) die because of Trump, plain and simple. I didn't say Trump was a good leader. In fact his track record with 2A is worse than Obama. I have been plenty critical of him on this forum. I find it amusing that you are able to use mental gymnastics to look past his blackface era. "College shenanigans" 2A rights don't come from the BofR. They are affirmed by it, meaning those rights exist with or without it. It's merely a declaration that the govt supports the natural rights of its citizens. So interpretation is moot.

A sorry excuse for a leader. So is the Governor of Virginia. You know, the guy who can't follow the Constitution, likes to dress up in blackface, and would kill babies after birth. Is he a great leader in your opinion?

This seems to be a play on endless QE obviously. Silver traded way up in 2010-2011 after QE2. Tempting for gamble. I hope it was nothing but congressional members ;D

More pork and more violations of individual liberties and rights. This has become a massive power grab. https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/5717

Relying on habit is a slippery slope since it only takes 21 days to 1 year to break or rather change a habit into something else. For most people, it's already 30 days since the lockdown. People have been changed imho. And they can't change back? Not the point. I didn't say spending will end, I said it may be a possibility for it to dry up for the mid-to-long term. If that's the case, it will have tangible effects. EDIT: So even if they can change back, it does not invalidate my argument. Some things never change on a longterm context. 1.) People want to own homes 2.) People want families 3.) People want to be rich 4.) People want nice things Those four things will never change. Why? Because humanity is hardwired to overcome, innovate, and push forward. Those 4 things have survived hundreds of wars, natural disasters, diseases, and thousands of years. Covid-19 isn’t going to change that. If anything on a historical scale humanity has learned to recover and adapt faster and faster from “events”.

Relying on habit is a slippery slope since it only takes 21 days to 1 year to break or rather change a habit into something else. For most people, it's already 30 days since the lockdown. People have been changed imho. And they can't change back?

If you liked 1917 I would highly recommend watching Peter Jackson’s “And They Shall Not Grow Old”

Any good? Making a beer run tomorrow

On what budget? Once this pandemic is over I wonder how much money any city/state in the US will have to do anything new and non-essential.

I cut about 15% off of my “accumulation pile” and added it to my cash pile. Rally does seem emotionally driven but either way there are some good companies trading at great multiples. Definitely certain sectors in staying away from but telecoms seem like a solid bet along with some banks.

Have you read the book The Economic Consequences of Debt-financed Peace? I would be surprised 'cause the book has been written but is still not published. A good synopsis https://mises.org/wire/economic-consequences-peace-100-years-later

Regarding microdroplets transmission in enclosed environments, the Chinese turned off all air circulation systems during the quarantine in buildings. Likely due to experiences with SARS. Do that during warm weather and your sure to end up with millions of dollars tied up in mold damage. My hometown built a new HS and to save costs they turned off the HVAC systems over the summer because the building wasn’t in use. Well when school came around they weren’t to happy to see their brand new building filled with mold costing hundreds of thousands of dollars to treat while also pretty much guaranteeing more issues down the line. Investment angle? Idk perhaps a lot of these commercial office space companies will likewise implement similar measures to cut costs unwillingly knowing what they’re doing.

Lmfao at some of you who don’t understand a metaphor and then simultaneously prove my point. “Shout him down!” Burry was a fucking genius to most of you leading up to 2008. Now because he has a differing opinion on a topic he’s a goddamn degenerate ;D I’m not sure what his GameStop investment has to do with his covid19 opinion. If that’s your logic then perhaps you should part with your beloved BRK.b because ol daddy WB messed up his airline play. Idk if he’s right or wrong. But he’s smart enough and respectable enough for me to listen to what he has to say and give it thought.

A form of what Dr Burry is suggesting is likely what we see as we move to the next stage in the battle. Is the church of “scientific consensus” going to change their view? Will the epidemiological popes allow Galileo to give his opinion or will he be burned at the stake for heresy? My guess is the latter...

Yeah, it's the federal government that is in charge of the CDC, HHS, DHS, FDA, the national stockpile, army corps of engineers, etc.. They're the ones who are supposed to protect the country from what's happening right now as a first line of defense, and then coordinate resources and do clear national messaging/planning during the crisis, as well as coordinate with international allies and suppliers. Why are taxpayers paying for all that if not for times like these? The failure of the federal government is what is leading to individual governors having to pick up the slack as best as they can. Meanwhile, the president's failed-developer son-in-law is running point on a pandemic... It's amazing that people can see the blatant failures of government in the current yet continue to advocate for more. All while the innovations and solutions come directly from private industry and people thinking on their feet. ;D FWIW: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/false-claim-about-cdcs-global-anti-pandemic-work/ "Those hypothetical cuts were avoided, however, because Congress later provided more funding for the CDC’s global health programs, the CDC told us in a statement. " “CDC did not have to cut back its work from 49 to 10 countries,” said Maureen Bartee, CDC’s associate director for Global Health Security, in a statement to FactCheck.org. “In the FY18-FY20 annual appropriations, CDC received base appropriations for global health security from Congress. This was used to continue the essential public health capacity development in the four core areas that was started in 2014 with the one-time supplemental funds.” "Those amounts went up again in fiscal year 2020, when the CDC was awarded $183 million for global public health protection, overall, and $125 million specifically for its global health security efforts. For fiscal year 2021, President Donald Trump has requested that CDC funding for global disease detection and other programs be increased further — to $225 million total, with $175 million going directly to global health security. With its current funding, Bartee said, the CDC is actually working in “more than 60 countries” — not 10 — to address the threat of global infectious diseases and outbreaks."

Perhaps after restructuring - have you looked at their balance sheet and cash flow statement? E-commerce is hard enough to begin with, let alone when you are trying to sell heavy, difficult to ship products at 20-25% gross margins. Also consider that a company that enjoys a negative working capital cycle when sales are expanding (and finances growth from that) will see that unwind, with declining sales causing a cash drain. Good point. That could come back to really bite all the SAAS darlings as well. Dig into their wonderful FCF generation and it's mostly D&A, stock compensation (which will likely decline either due to lower headcount, which kills the growth narratives, or employees demanding more comp in the form of cash), and upfront cash payments on multi-year contracts. In the furniture retail world, many brick-and-mortar stores have embraced the negative working capital model and now the negative aspects related to cash flow generation are starting to show. Isn't Wayfair the 'champion' of the negative working capital model? Won't slowing (or heaven forbid negative) growth mean losing even more money for a while? https://finbox.com/NYSE:W/explorer/nwc I see Wayfair as a company coming back to earth. What am I missing to explain the potential rebound? Edit: Apologies as I realize that the link submitted may require subscription. The graph in the link basically shows a pattern similar to what Dell accomplished at some point but in an exponential (negative) way. Dell was profitable though. All fair points, and I realize it's not a risk free name, but that's why it's even in the discussion, because if it was not down something like 85% we wouldn't be talking about it. On the other hand, I don't think it's unrealistic to think that if they can survive relatively unscathed and that this crisis impacts their competitors much more than them. Of course, I could be wrong on all of this. W up 42% today...