Castanza

Some things I found interesting but doesn't prove anything and could very well just be coincidence. To me this makes more sense than "Putin is crazy therefore he did it." I'm not even sure if he is crazy. He's evil for sure. But there hasn't been a ton of irrational moves strategically speaking (outside of underestimating Ukrainian resistance). Plus saying XYZ Country's leader is crazy is a classic US tactic. Everyone we've faced in the last 75 years has been "Crazy". But like Xerxes said, we don't know for sure and it very well could have been Russia, Poland, or US. 1.) US BaltOps June 22. Goal: Bring underwater demolition and mine hunting capability to the Baltic Sea via US Navy - This takes place in Bornholm. Which is an island located directly between the two pipeline explosions. 2.) US Navy Warfare had amphibious assault ships within 30km from both pipelines prior to demolition (within torpedo range) US Spy planes were also in the area around the same time. 3.) Poland has Naval base just to the to south that holds their Naval Combat Engineer Battalion 4.) Joe Biden has said multiple times that he would shutdown the Nordstream Pipelines 5.) Russia would happily export Gas and Oil (as they have been). They still need funds and getting sanctions lifted is still a goal of theirs. 6.) US has been involved in sabotaging Russia Pipelines in the past via CIA under Reagan. The CIA also warned Germany of a pipeline attack prior to it happening. So it's not outside the playbook. Q: Why would Russia blow up a pipeline that they could simply turn off? Leverage over Germany is now gone. Q: Why would Russia destroy a 20B pipeline that was created so they could avoid transit fees of other lines?

It's already been done in 2020 "Call of Duty: Warzone's Verdansk map is heavily inspired by real-life locations, buildings and regions of Donetsk, Chernobyl and other Ukrainian landmarks."

Four possibilities in my opinion. 1.) Russia 2.) CIA/SEALs 3.) GROM 4.) Greta Thunberg

Do we know for sure who did it yet? Why would the Poland Defense Minister say it was the US? Why would Biden vow to "shut it down"?

Wife and I went out to a local place last week. Waitress told us there was a mandatory 18% gratuity that goes to everyone. Then she said they would appreciate a tip on top. I jokingly asked if there was a discount for mixing your own drinks and got a stone cold look lol...I mean c'mon...40% on top of the already raised prices is nuts.

Yeah their men are certainly demoralized with many asking to leave now that their contracts were up; only to have them indefinitely extended. With winter approaching you would think Russia is looking to entrench, secure and reinforce the lines (similar to Crimea prior to invasion). That would give them some time to "train" new recruits and somewhat organize their Supply Chain. If that's the course of action you can probably expect Ukraine to turn on the jets now to cause as many disruptions as possible and if winter brings a pause I'm sure Ukraine will happily spend the next few months targeting the supply lines Russia tries to rebuild from afar. @XerxesWar on the Rocks is still the best podcast covering this imo. @no_free_lunch Nobody said the US weapons weren't helping. I mean it was pretty clear on day one when tanks were getting destroyed every hour by their SOF teams. You're very emotional on this...take a breath. Nobody here is an expert, nobody here is rooting for Russia. I think oversight does matter because The Constitution does matter to me and it should to others. It shouldn't be thrown out the window because there is a crisis. In fact it's designed for crisis. For the past 15 years Americans have been complaining about getting stuck in wars. Well this is how it happens. We don't need to be involved in another war that drags on for 10+ years while providing billions upon billions. No Congressional approval for attacks (Nord 1 & 2), no/little oversight with funds. You now have hundreds of thousands of Russians being drafted that presumably don't want to be who are going to be like lambs to the slaughter. It seems to me that an offramp is the preferred solution. My brother and sister are both adopted from Russia, I have distant relatives from Poland, Czech and likely Ukraine. I have work collogues who joined Ukrainian Foreign Legion Forces and many who have family affected. There's about two dozen other wars going on around the world too. At the end of the day you have a lot of people on both sides of the conflict who don't want to be there. Your "vibe" is that if someone isn't 100% behind Ukraine and willing to commit whatever to the "cause" without regard or abandon then somehow they are supporting Russia and Hitler 2.0....that's nonsense. So fly your Ukrainian flag. Send some money and get your name written on a mortar round. The US is only interested in supplying Ukraine because we want our cannon fodder buffer zone back between NATO and Russia. If we truly were over there because we cared about "independence" then we would have been in/done more for Hong Kong, Catalonia and the dozen other countries/regions looking for independence from whatever warlord, ruler, dictator and politician that rules over them. https://antiwar.com/ https://archive.ph/p85GD

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2022/09/27/us-blew-up-russian-gas-pipelines-nord-stream-1--2-says-former-polish-defense-minister/ Well if the US did do this it’s foolish. Likely was as Biden said he was going to shut it down multiple times. One it hurts Germany immensely. Two you’ve now committed an act of war without congressional approval and made US infrastructure a target.

Any thoughts on expected divy rate post net debt target? It's interesting and I own a bit along with VET but it's not something I want to hold long term without significant return of capital. Agree with Spek that energy is something you definitely don't marry

Yeah that's certainly a possibility and was my thought when I first sold the shares. Time will tell, but either way If you have a 5+ year time horizon buying now at 14 is not a bad price.

Exactly, it's the same things as Afghanistan. They are wars that cannot be won so it's an automatic loss when the US leaves even though the enemy was getting their teeth pushed in day after day. I mean I don't really agree with either. Afghanistan was justifiable to an extent, but the stay was way past it's expiration date. They were political/cultural wars which were doomed from the beginning. How can anyone define winning or losing at this point? Comparing Russia's involvement to their current onslaught to Afghanistan is like comparing a fish to a deer. Zero similarities. What we are seeing Russia do has not been seen since WWII. Everyone is flying blind on what happens next.

I’m not saying it’s an advantage or disadvantage. Historically it’s been both. Russia is in the process of changing their strategy. They realized that the tank centric 2000 man regiment is not a flexible. Where Ukraine has adopted the US tactics of smaller unit tactics while sending out the SOF teams as purely tank and armored vehicle hunters. It was very effective. My guess is Russia will take on a similar approach moving forward. Also many people fail to differentiate between the type of soldiers Russia has. When They got overrun last week it was because they left their flank exposed and the only troops there (according to experts) likely internal troops that don’t have a primary function of combat.

ATCO....Seems like there is a free $1.50 on the table right?

By no means an expert but this is my elementary view that's probably riddled with holes. - Gold looks attractive if you're holding mostly anything but USD - Price of Gold relative to USD shows demand/scarcity of the dollar - Reserve currency doing its thing. At the end of the day countries owe debt in USD and the US has the most mature bond market out there. - You're right though, if the dollar gets too strong compared to other currencies I guess it's possible we could see write-downs by countries? (Idk I'll leave that to the experts)

So not disproven and the ones disproving it also could have incentive to “disprove it”. We won’t ever know either way. Fact: Anytime there is government funding there is fraud and usually lost if it. We’ve seen it during Katrina, we’ve seen it with other Hurricane aid, we’ve seen it with other foreign disaster relief, we’ve seen it with Covid Stimulus, we’ve seen it in other wars we’ve been involved in. Fact: Ukraine has a history of corruption. And by history I mean within the last 10 years. Ukraine has their Oligarchs too. Fact: There is very little oversight

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-26/biden-team-monitoring-markets-amid-volatility-white-house-says Wonder what they’ve got up their sleeves? Biden Bucks just in time for the mid-terms?

You made this claim yet it never actually happened "More than 50% of the aid provided to Ukraine is in the form of weapons and weapons systems, or money that goes right back to the domestic manufacturer to produce the weapons or weapon systems for Ukraine. It is hard for a lot of this stuff to just go poof." And your source is? ^ Well there were multiple news agencies to report that over the past few months. Ukraine had former soviets sitting at the top of their government what 8 years ago? They have the VP's crackhead son sitting on a board for their largest company. They have a 31/100 rating on the corruption scale. I'd say truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. But I'd day there is a good amount of corruption there. Simple from a historical standpoint regarding wars I think it's naïve to think otherwise. Look at Cheney during the early years in Iraq. If it happens in the US, you can be damn sure it's happening in Ukraine. So yeah, with everyone saying how little oversight there is you can bet a large percentage of it has vanished. I think Zelenskyy seems like a pretty solid guy but who knows. I mean the guy claimed to be under constant threat and claimed to have survived multiple assassination attempts yet he didn't miss his TV time to ask for money every 3 hours. I mean he even made an appearance live for the Grammys lol War is a racket, always has been always will be. The world is more corrupt than most think.

EU in general dropped the ball. Ukraine is the only ground force large enough to actually defend against an attack. Luckily they have been getting us training since the mid 2000's. I'm not a fan of the lack of oversight there is on US funding. So far it's estimated that only 30% of money given to Ukraine by the US has actually been put towards the war effort. The other 70%? Poof My question is, how long can the west afford to fund this? Germany, Poland, France, Spain, Finland, etc. all need to step up. All of these nations have been getting training from the US for the past two decades. Time to put that to work. Again, I'm not against US support. But I don't like the lack of oversight. The US has plenty of problems right here at home and handing out money without any oversight can't go on forever.

Lines are not accepted, they're defended and then tolerated. Ukraine has no more right to exist than Russia. If you want that "right" you secure it. If you don't like your country you leave or rise up and overthrow it. All of history boils down to that. Conquer or be conquered, govern or be governed, enslave or be enslaved. Ukraine gave up it's nukes and Russia is trying to capitalize on that.

Nobody is going to guess the outcome of this war based on single battles. Winter is coming and Russia is drafting. That gives some time for training with new troops even if it's nothing but navigation and simple tactics. Entrenchment seems likely. The first snow has already fallen in Ukraine. Remember, many of our boys in Vietnam got less than their "required" 8 weeks of training. The individuals being drafted may be against the fight but when that first bullet flies past their head their allegiance will be to the man next to them and they will fight. Russia in general doesn’t have the training facilities that we have in the US. It’s typical of their military to be trained once at command. The drafted will likely be divided into prior service etc. everything going on right now is to sure of the lines for winter so that they can attempt to fix their supply issues the . Some say that Putin is grasping at straws and that this is a last ditch effort. Is it? Because if this would have been done sooner it would have been an even bigger mess to try to manage counter attacks while also onboarding a new force. This is unprecedented an nobody has seen anything remotely close since WWII. The experts are in the dark on how this will turn out. But the one certain thing is, Russia is digging in. Giving Ukraine nuclear weapons would be a mistake. It does nothing but escalate the situation. It puts those assets at risk of capture or misuse. It also makes the US a target. Remember, in 2018 Russian Nuclear subs were found just 12 miles off the US coast. How long can support from the West last? If this war drags on for years can we continue to support Ukraine? Nuclear weapons are historically used defensively, not offensively. The likelihood of use goes up if the Russian military gets routed to a point that is unrecoverable. What does Russia have to lose at this point? ... Politicians in the West should be looking for an off-ramp. Otherwise, if you're 35 and under you might want to implement a timed mile, push-up, pull-up, sit-up regiment into your weekly schedule

Immigration needs fixed for sure Also US academia ideologues also need to stop telling younger generations that having more than one child is irresponsible and reprehensible.

Yeah but you wouldn't be holding a mystery box with CCP leadership Different strokes for different folks. I'm probably overly conservative with margin. Only use it on layups that have no muck or mysteries attached. "First you borrow, then you beg" - The Old Man and the Sea

20% margined buying BABA?

Could be on sale permanently

After the infighting is done? Does it ever end? With who as the winner? Xi? He wants a more closed isolated China. His policies speak for themselves.

LOL well at least you’re honest. No there is definitely some stuff I won’t mess with (mostly engine stuff). Vehicles have gotten really complicated and require a lot of special tools. Not worth the hassle anymore. My FIL still changes his oil…in his driveway…during the winter. Lol it’s what? $20 service fee at Jiffy Lube? Haha yeah I’ve seen some of those failed boat launch vids. Understandable