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nwoodman

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Everything posted by nwoodman

  1. Julia Gillard - Prime Minister Wayne Swan - Deputy Gillard won unopposed, so Rudd chose not to contest. An incredible turn around for a prime minister that had one of the highest approval ratings of all time. Now we get to see whether Gillard will pull the Resource Super Profits Tax. Interesting times indeed.
  2. Caucus is currently voting (9am AEST) but it sounds like Julia Gillard has well and truly got the numbers and will trounce Kevin Rudd.
  3. Great links above, many thanks Some of the ones I read Macro China Pettis http://mpettis.com/ Andy Xie (need to search) http://english.caijing.com.cn/finance_features/ Debt Deflation Australian Economist Steve Keen http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/ Hoisington http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/hoisington_economic_overview.html Companies Berkshire Chucks Angels http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/chucks_angels/
  4. I wish I had more to add, but thanks for passing this on, very interesting read Cheers
  5. Hi Viking, I tend to use Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) as an overlay to my US stock purchases. Our currency here in Australia has certainly been manic over the last few years. In order to keep this in perpsective I divide my fair value of BRK, FFH and ORH currently by 0.80/0.69 (PPP) to get a currency adjusted valuation. On this basis I figure that I have approximately 16% more purchasing power so my maths work something like this based on what I figure is IV BRK IV = US120000 est from JKish's intrinsivalutor, BRK Price = US82500 (based on 30 b's) -> 82500/(120000*1.16) So my currency adjusted IV is 59% FFH IV =1.4 x 255 = US357 FFH price = US242 ->242/(357*1.16) = 58% ORH IV = 1.4 x 43.8 = US61.32 ORH price = 42.3 -> 42.3/(61.32 * 1.16) = 59.5% PPP is a very course metric but ultimately seems to at least be a long run anchor point on currency movements. The usual caveats apply in that you need to be mindful of "printing presses" and the shortcomings of using basic IV measures such as multliples of book value and the intrinsivaluator. Cheers nwoodman
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