Saluki

Added a little to STNG and KMI. Started small positions in MU and ATEX while I do more research.

These are the two fangs I own. Here are my thoughts for what it's worth. FB: Facebook, Instagram and Whatsapp are all companies that benefit from network effects, which are hard to disrupt when they get big enough (like now). It's like why everyone hated Microsoft but everyone already used it, so everyone else had to use it. Assume it's better to drive on the left side of the road, how do you get everyone to do it unless everyone is already doing it? FB can sell ads at a premium because they know so much about you and unlike a traditional ad spend, the ads (like on Google) are auction driven so the ad platform keeps more of the value created. It's trading at not a lot more than the P/E of the market for a company that has way better prospects than the rest of the market. GooG: Google and YouTube are the number 1 and 2 search engines in the world. 15% of all internet traffic is YouTube. If you sell ads on the best search engines, you are getting an override on the growth of internet traffic and e-commerce. Also, most of the moonshots are not that impressive but self-driving is. Everyone looooves tesla because of the self driving potential, but based on two important metrics (miles driven, and avg miles driven before you need to grab the streering wheel) GM is number two and number one is....Google. And again, the P/E is not outrageous compared to the market I think Amzn and Netflix are great products, just could never get comfortable with the price. Apple: I looked at it before Buffett and (wrongly) concluded that it was a bad idea because (at the time) 65% of the revenue was from iphones and I'm old enough to remember when everyone had a motorola razr, and then a blackberry, and then a nokia. I will say that (last time I checked) I was impressed with their cash situation. They move product so quickly and get paid so fast, but pay others so slow, that the metric you use for that (i forget what it's called) was negative 40 days. I've never seen that before. But...I didn't buy it. I'm chickensh1t.

Well, as Bernard Baruch said "no one ever lost money taking a profit." I remember once buying calls on Lear Corp and there was some positive news the next day. I was up over 40% in ONE DAY! Rather than sell, I held on and they eventually expired worthless. I'd rather have Bernard Baruch's problems than Gil Gunderson's any day. Gil Gunderson from the Simpsons:

been picking up a little kinder morgan (KMI) whenever it dips below 15. Still a small position, but I think I'll have some time to build on it as I sell off other things i own that get fully priced.

This is a fun read by the same author of Barbarians at the Gate. Given the popularity of Barbarians, I'm surprised almost no one I know has read it. I read it a few years ago when I was learning as much as possible about oil. This book is about the richest four oil families in Texas. By following the history of these trashy weirdos you'll learn why there is no land zoning in houston, how the Oilers and Cowboys football teams ended up in Texas and why batsh1t religious conservative politicians are so well funded. You'll also see a lot of corruption. Not to give away much of the book, but one person in the book literally shot his ex wife in front of witnesses and got away with it. If you want a good historical book about oil, Daniel Yergin's "The Prize" is a book for you. If you want something that feels like Michael Lewis (or Maury Povich) had a hand in writing, this is one you'll like.

I'd be very interested in reading it after you give your review. Although I read voraciously, I have an OCD thing about finishing books that I start, but at 800+ pages I want to make sure it's worth the time :)

Added a little SRG (close to the price Buffett bought at during the SHLD spinoff, but the company looks much better than it did 3 years ago), and a little FB and BRK and STNG. Nothing to write home about but just deployed the rest of my cash (about 1%).

Lots of good stuff streaming nowadays, but I'm currently very into a show that was recommended to me by a friend who used to work at NASA: The Expanse. (snap shot: The Earth is run by the U.N., Mars is independent and Militarized and their is was brewing over control of the settlements in the outer asteroid belt). It's very dark, like Battlestar Galactica (also a favorite).

I own some STNG too, it's a decent position along with a small basket of of other shipping stocks based on the IMO2020 thesis. My pick is my 3rd biggest position: SSW. I started buy in the 6s and gained more confidence in it after meeting sokol at the fairfax meeting a couple of years ago. I think every company with newer ships will win big this year because of the new fuel requirements. The price discrepancy should create some major price spikes the way they did when double hull ships replaced single hull ships, or the way steam ships were bankrupted by internal combustion ships in the 1980s (only LNG ships, i believe, still use steam engines...long story). SSW should benefit from that tailwind, the new capital structure with the revolving credit, the investment from fairfax, and opportunistic investments in energy that SSW is looking at.

Silly question but does anyone have a good software tool or plugin to calculate this? I add to my account throughout the year, so it's not a straightforward calculation. I know IBKR has a tool for calculating your return vs SP500 over time, but my brokerage account does not (and I can't switch to IBKR because of a work conflict).

Sorry for the late reply, I just got back into town... yes, The healthcare is technically free, but most people with money buy private insurance (like the uk and canada) to supplement it, but still cheaper than the US (except for some medicines, which cost more than in the US for no good reason and is one of the reasons that people are upset with the healthcare system there and are joining the protests. Yes, most of the other stuff is cheaper but electricity is expensive compared to neighboring countries. Food looked reasonable (especially beef, lamb and seafood, which was inexpenive). In the south the heating is with wood burning stoves and it's practically free if you live in the country. The roads are well taken care off (even in off the beaten path area) but there are a lot of toll roads, which people complain about too. Still, in my city in the US we are heavilly taxed and our roads are something out of Mad Max in some parts of the city, so I don't think they should be complaining.

Curious, does this also comes with mineral rights? I'll be traveling down there for work most likely in June and also will be visiting a sister in-law. Any recommendations of "non-touristy" things to do in Santiago? Is it definitely in June? I think they voting on a new constitution in March so I hope things calm down after that. I have spent very little time in Santiago so I'm afraid I'm the wrong person to ask about "non-touristy" things there. The Costanera center is touristy, but I would see it if you're down there (highest bldg in south america and really nice views on a good day). I've go to the CN tower every time I visit Toronto so maybe I'm weird but I never get tired of being so high up that you are looking down on the other skyscrapers. If you can get down south, Chiloe is great. One type of penguin goes as far north as peru, but another type only goes as far north as chiloe, so if you go to a little town called Punahuil, you can take a motor boat (about US$15,if I recall) and they will take you to a few little islands where you can see both types of penguins and take pictures. Also in the areas near the volcanos (villarica, osorno) there are lots of places with hot springs where you can soak after a long day hiking. As for the mineral rights, yes, it does come with those, but this is in the south. Santiago is in the middle and the mines are all up north. There is nothing really valuable there besides water and trees.

Intrepid Potash (IPI) has water rights in New Mexico. They sell water to frackers. (I own a small amount of this). Tejon Ranch owns lots of land (and water rights) in California. They rent out the land to vineyard growers and other farmers.

I think if you bought a whole newspaper, the prices were so cheap that you could draw enough value out of the melting ice cube to make it worth your while. Berkshire itself was a terrible business (textiles) but bought so cheaply that you take the cashflows and reinvest them anywhere else and still do okay. I think if someone invested in a newspaper with the idea of management turning it around or (god forbid) reinvesting in the newspaper business and growing it, then it would be a dangerous idea. But is this a worse idea than buying houses in Detroit for $5000 and and renting them for $400 a month? In both cases you are buying something for way below replacement costs, which has almost zero chance of appreciating, but milking it for the cashflows that you can use for bigger, better things.

I didn't see this until today...Looks like Mason Hawkins and the Southeastern guys started a podcast. Here's one that they did with Prem Watsa :) https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/prem-watsa-insights-on-investing-underwriting-importance/id1434613123?i=1000431247358

The difference between antitrust in the US and the EU is that in the EU it is meant to protect competitors, in the US it is meant to protect competition. That's why large mergers in concentrated industries are usually a no-go. The exception is that they will usually allow a merger with a competitor who is going under, since it would disappear anyway.

I'll be there next month. If I were to invest in something down there, it would be water rights (which are privately owned), or land down south in Patagonia. About 40% of the population is in the capital and Valparaiso, but the south has the same geography and climate as the Pacific Northwest. You could live in a place that has the same views as Vancouver at 1/20th the price and without all the traffic. If it keeps growing and the protests die down, I'm sure sure wealthy chinese buyers will figure that out. I own 30 hectares of timberland in Patagonia. It's part of a lot of land that my grandfather left to be split up by his heirs after he passed away. It's not really an investment, but it doesn't cost me much to keep it, so I don't plan on selling it, but I like going down there and walking my land and drinking from the stream (I have water rights!). Plus if you don't want to do something at work, like accept a transfer it's a very credible bluff to say "I have lots of land in patagonia where I could build a house, and enough money to last the rest of my life. So....no."

Sold the half of my PBF shares that were in my ROTH IRA account (no taxes due!). I started buying in the mid 20s, and followed it down. It's up 50% in the past few months from the bottom tick buy my average cost was above that so I'm up 32% on that one. Still holding the other half in my taxable account till the full year is up so that I can get the long term capital gains tax rate if I decide to sell. .

Added to EAF and STNG on the dip today.

I like things that float lately. My 4th biggest position is a Container Shipping company with newer ships which restructured it's debt and balance sheet recently. "There are only three ways to get an advantage over your competitors in this business" What are they? robert asked "[1]Pay less for your ships, [2]pay less to operate them or [3] pay less for your capital." From "The Shipping Man" They should have an advantage on the number 3 and the new chairman has a history (in another business) of buying up assets on the cheap and turning them profitable, which should help with number 1 in a downturn.

Curious if you have looked at Ardmore Shipping ASC at all? Only very briefly. I'm not done with my "deep dive" on shipping yet, so STNG and SALT are not big positions for me yet. IIRC, ASC's product tanker fleet is about 6.5 years old on average and STNG's is about 4.5 years old on average. Since I think newer fuel efficient ships will have a big advantage over the older ships, it's the first thing I zoned in on. I'll take a look at it and if it looks good, maybe do a basket approach. What do you like about it? SSW I started buying about 1.5 years ago. When Sokol became Chairman, I looked at it as a bet on the jockey, not the horse, but I think the way he's fixed the balance sheet and added flexibility in the financing could be a game changer. Basel III made it more unattractive (in required net capital)for banks to lend on ships, so I think a lot of financing is going to move towards private equity and patient money deals like what SSW did with Fairfax. I started looking at STNG when I saw a writeup about it on Adventures in Capitalism. I came across his website when he did a bullish writeup on my 3rd largest position (JOE). It sounded like a smart idea so I started digging. Besides investor presentations, I'm on my 3rd book on shipping (already read Shipping Man, Dynasties of the Sea and now on Viking Raid) and I'm learning a lot as I go. The CEO of STNG (Bugbee) was on a podcast recently. He sums up the bull thesis (IMO 2020 causing a shortage of available ships and driving up pricing) pretty well. It's hard to find anything that floats that is trading above book value now because the sector has been suffering for so long. I don't like the debt that they all have either, but it looks interesting and I hope will get better. Terrible industries with debt that get worse make me sad if I have money in them.

It was a weird experience for me haggling in Bangkok. For something like a T-shirt that was $6-8, it was already cheaper than what I would pay at home, but it's expected that you haggle. So I would ask for a better price and the guy would give me a small discount and I would quickly cave in and we both feel good about it. A thai friend said I should take him with me because he could get better prices on souvenirs, but that extra dollar or two I wouldn't even notice and although it won't matter to me, in a poor country it's a very big deal, so why do it? One of those vendors did math in his head better than me (and definitely works harder than me), so what separates us other than I was lucky enough to have parents that emigrated to a rich country? I bought a couple of handmade monk bowls there, made by brazing pieces of metal together over a flame, in a country where it's 95 degrees outside. They were pricey for souvenirs, but it's hard work in a poor country to do that kind of stuff so I don't get a good feeling when I see tourists trying to beat them up on price about it.

Building a position in STNG (scorpio tankers) and bought a tiny bit in SALT (scorpio bulkers) which owns a big slug of STNG. Added to my large position in SSW (Seaspan) and bought some more JOE on the dip.

Added to some JOE under $17 and EAF again, and to keep it interesting a tiny bit of SALT, TPHS and BHC (just because I'm OCD and like seeing my share counts end in round numbers and looking at things that end in 4, 7 9 etc. has been bugging me for days).

Added to JOE (got super cheap after Hurricane Adrian, which didn't really affect the panhandle), EAF and TPHS again. Bought a little more BHC, which I haven't bought or sold more shares in a while, but noticed Joe Papa the CEO bought a nice slug of shares recently. Story hasn't changed (debt keeps getting more manageable and outlook keeps looking better but stock price hasn't moved).