Saluki
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Posts posted by Saluki
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Added some VTS on the dip. A little more TV and CPNG. (still selling a slug of my ATCO every few days and redeploying).
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3 hours ago, John Hjorth said:
Quotes from the MKL topic in "Investment Ideas" forum of posts by Sanjeev [ @Parsad], @dealraker & @Viking, for further discussion separately :
This future break-up scenerio for Berkshire has
poopedpopped up regularly here on CoBF within the last decade - now four or five times during that period, I think.I do not recall ever to have seen anyone taking a serious stab at analyzing such a scenario and trying generate some written reflections - the closest thing has been a piece by Ravi Nagarajan [The Rational Walk] within the last three years or so, based on the share class structure.
- @Viking consider it super interesting to follow. I would say ditto, but like a nightmare, or like seing "Cliffhanger" on a large screen, while you're suffering severely from acrofobia!
Anyone?
If i recall, BNSF was purchased through the National Indemnity Insurance subsidiary instead of directly through the BRK parent.
One commentator (I forget who) speculated that he did it that way to make it harder for any successor to try to break up. It was a better idea than relying on corporate culture.
Since the railroad can produce steady income like a utility, by placing it in an insurance sub, the state insurance regulator may make it harder for you to spin it off without replacing it with some equally large assets on the balance sheet.
Since BRK is so decentralized, it would be tempting to break it apart, since the subs are essentially already independent businesses. I think the hand picked successors and the family members on the board to who were chosen to perpetuate the culture rather than for their business acumen, are another line of defense against that breakup strategy.
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There are a few whales still in private hands but I doubt that Warren is interested.
Mars Candy (and dog food and Banfield Veterniary hospital chain). The founder, Forest Mars died a few years ago. The sons who run it seem competent, but that business gene seems to die out after a while (as in See's Candy) so it may be for sale one day. Each of those seems like moaty businesses.
Cargill. Buffett hates commodity business, but he doesn't seem to mind oligopolies that provide stuff to other companies (Precision castparts, Lubrizol, Paint, Bricks, machining tools).
Koch: Nope.
PC Richard and Son. 66 store white goods/electronics retailer in the Northeast. When I worked there in my 20s they had the second highest percentage of customers with a store card (after Sears), which is a great measure of customer loyalty. They also have a large wholesale division that sells appliances to property developers and mom & pop electronics stores. (He's had terrible luck with retail, except for Nebraska Furniture Mart)
State Farm is right in their wheelhouse, but it's a mutual insurance company, so I don't think they would agree to be sold. But imagine what he could do with all that float (maybe not much, since cash has been coming in faster than Buffett can send it back out, which is a good problem to have).
ALDI is privately held.
IKEA is private and seems like the kind of differentiated business that he would like. But...retail.
Probably a lot more abroad, but those are the biggest ones that I can think of operating in the US.
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A little more CPNG and TV. I also bought a tiny amount of Vista Outdoor. I know they talked about splitting into two companies, so I just wanted a token amount to remind me to check in on that periodically.
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57 minutes ago, Sweet said:
If they are expecting oil to hover around $70 - which I understand is their upper limit for purchase - I think they will be disappointed.They should put a giant bid at $70 and just let it sit.
If they did that, I would quit my job and just sell $69 puts until I'm so rich that I can buy my own penis shaped rocket ship like Elon and Bezos.
A lot of majors have their own trading desks. Shell has Coral Energy trading for instance. Those guys lose money sometimes, and they are the ones drilling it and selling it, and they are talking to people everyday in that business. If they can't predict the price of oil reliably, what edge does some GS14 employee in Washington, who comes into work at 9am and leaves at 5pm have?
The SPR is supposed to be for emergencies, not for smoothing out inflation. They made a mistake selling. And they probably will compound that by buying it back wrong.
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Nice one!
I'm sitting on some VTS that I like. Besides the nice dividend, in their first post-spin conference call they announced a $60mm stock buyback (that's almost 12% of the market cap).
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7 minutes ago, Sweet said:
Thanks. For some reason I thought it was much higher.
I'm on Schwab, will check it out.I thought it was 1 million minimum buy for some reason.
I think that $1 million thing was certain kinds of bonds that people like Salomon would bid for and then break them up into smaller units and sell to their clients. If I recall from Buffett's involvement in the scandal, there were only certain firms that were allowed to bid and Salomon was the biggest.
On treasury direct, retail people can buy them directly in smaller lots. I know that for the inflations bonds (I Bonds) the minimum is $25 and the max is $10k per person per year. I don't know what the min/limit is for other ones.
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Been selling some ATCO every day and redploying it. I don't think it's worth it to wait for the last dividend, but at the same time, I don't want to redeploy it all it once into a position and have it drop on me.
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I sold another slug of ATCO (not going to wait for the last dividend before Prem takes it private) and bought some SWBI in addition to the TV and CPNG I bought earlier.
If my better half bought shoes the way I buy stocks ("I know I have a lot already, but it was on sale!") we would need a bigger house.
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In doing a new video I mentioned this book, which not many people have read but it's very good. McCaw's dad was an early cable pioneer who built a regional cable company with a mountain of debt and lost it all except for a single franchise in a small community in Washington State. It's why I always hated investing in cable companies. Even the best like John Mallone and John Hendricks have almost gone bankrupt many times. We lionized the survivors, but forget about the others that got wiped out. McCaw inherited that, grew the company and made a lot in the hey day of cable and then got into Telecom, invested in Nextel, and did very well for himself. He's not a household name, but it's an interesting part of the history of the industry. Well worth checking out.
I especially liked it because a client (who recently died, with a net worth of almost $4 billion) is mentioned in there in an accurate but unflattering way. Some partners at my old law firm made millions when they invested along side him in a cell company which became the second biggest in the US (Metro Mobile) and was sold to one of the baby bells. It's a reminder to me that you only need one really good idea to get rich.
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Some TV and CPNG
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I'm going again to Woodstock for Capitalists this year. It will be my second year. I was pleased with the number of meetups and side events in Omaha compared with how many there are in Toronto for the Fairfax AGM. Although to be fair, my better half loved visiting Toronto both times and could not be convinced to come to Omaha even once. Last year I could've done a better job of planning things out beforehand, and I found out about a few things from word of mouth by talking to people there. Rather than leave it to chance, if you know of any meetups, brunches, annual meetings, talks, presentations etc, that are going on in Omaha that weekend, please comment below and we can have them all in one place for reference. Cheers!
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Bought a little Fairfax India in my Retirement account, a little VTS and a nice big slug of TV on the dip
I also bought some BABA and NETI on which I have some losses, but plan to sell the earlier shares in 31 days which will help reduce some of my gains on the ATCO I was squeezed out of. I plan on reclycling that capital and doing that again and again with other down positions until the end of the year and hopefully end up not having to write a big check this year to the tax man. I'm making an actual written note to myself to sell, because in the past I've tended to hold on "well I SAID I would sell in 31 days, but it still looks pretty cheap, so maybe I should just hold on longer."
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Sold some of my ATCO (if I don't wait until the freezeout happens, I will only miss one dividend payment) and bought more TV. Put in a limit order for SWBI but I didn't get a fill
(thinking of adding to some of my underwater positions and selling 31 days later to keep my same position but offset some of the gains from the ATCO forced sale. Whenever I try to time things it doesn't usually work out in my favor though).
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I've been listening to several videos by this guy. Very thought provoking. Besides being a performance psychologist for many of the top golfers, he also works for a very well known fund.
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More TV and OXY
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A little more OXY and TV on the dip. I still like SWBI at this price, but I have as much as I'm comfortable owning (it would be higher but gun companies, like tobacco, don't make sympathetic defendants and civil suits are always a looming threat that is not quantifiable).
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32 minutes ago, Eng12345 said:
what is the difference between fih.u and ffxdf? I've been trying to figure out off and on for a bit but the best I can find is the difference in exchanges...fih.u is the toronto exchange and ffxdf is the OTC...
Is there no difference in the underlying other than liquidity, correct?
No difference really, but the FFXDF is less liquid because it's a small cap Canadian company trading on a US exchange. Sometimes I don't see a resting bid/ask at all on FFXDF so make sure you put a limit order, not a market order.
Some US brokerages won't let you trade on the foreign exchanges. At my brokerage I have to buy FFXDF, not FIH but because it's not very liquid it makes me do two-factor authorization and I have to do it as a limit order.
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Just finished Crunk on Earth. It's a mockumentary interview format like Sasha Baron Cohen, but without any physical humor. Very funny!
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Bought a little OXY and Fairfax India on the dip. Added a little more to TV and SWBI.
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2 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
This. I made the mathematical case that is was nearly impossible for Fairfax to make attractive forward returns in 2018 given interest rates and equity markets.
I sold ALL of my Fairfax that I had been accumulating for the prior 7-years at $500-600 because the market seemed to be very optimistic.
Turns out, mathematics was right and Covid changed the narrative to "Fairfax has been dead money for a decade" despite insurance, rates, equities, and repurchases ALL syncing up to make forward looking returns fantastic....and the price of the stock was 1/2 to 3/4 what it had been 2-3 years prior.
Are you suggesting that the market is inefficient? Keep talking like that and you'll get rich, but you'll never get tenure and a key to the faculty lounge.
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On 2/17/2023 at 11:51 AM, dwy000 said:
Thanks! Hope those last two come out in print - I'm not a fan of e-reading. But great recommendations!
Just an FYI, the Seagrams Bronfmanns are the branch with the crazy sisters who were in the NXIUM sex cult in NY. The Brookfield Bronfmanns were the branch of the family that was squeezed out of the liquor business and went into real estate and became Brascan, which became the basis for Brookfield. "The Brass Ring" is a book that has that story and is excellent. It's out of print but I have a copy sitting in my office somewhere. If I go in person anytime soon, I'd be happy to mail it to whoever wants it or bring it to the Omaha for the Woodstock for Capitalists meeting.
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I bought too early (2017 after my first Toronto trip) and those buys have underperformed, but the additions after the pandemic rout in 2020 have made up for that. At this point, the business keeps growing and they are not doing things like making market calls with swaps and instead using that money and brainpower to grow the insurance business and make opportunistic investments, so I don't plan on selling any shares. The only FFH shares I have sold have been this year in my retirement account and I moved that over to Fairfax India, which I also like and is a bargain comparatively, IMHO.
I have no idea how the market doesn't value FF India like it values the companies on the Sensex. During the pandemic, the P/E of the Sensex reached 36, and FFI is still trading below book for some world class assets that are getting more valuable.
FFH has less moving parts than BRK but it's still difficult for me to follow all the pieces. Still, the important stuff (record premiums, record profits, combined ratio under 100, opportunistically buying assets then selling them for multi baggers a few years later) seem to be providing consistent steady growth. Still holding and collecting the dividends
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Added to TV and SWBI using some money from stuff I trimmed yesterday.
Added a small amount to NETI, which was down 6% today on no news (I plan to double it this year on the dips, then sell the half that I bought back when it was Scorpio Bulkers, to harvest the tax loss before year end while keeping the same position size).
South Korea Economy Real Estate and Jeonse Transactions
in General Discussion
Posted
I'm not opining on the South Korean economy, but I've never heard of this Jeonse thing. My question is if you have 70% of the purchase price of the property, why wouldn't you just buy the property? If you don't have it and you have to borrow it, again why not just buy the property? If you have to pay interest on the borrowed money to live "rent free" for two years, then it isn't rent free. You are essentially borrowing money from a solvent lender and lending it to an unsecured borrower with you as the guarantor to the lender.
Fascinating concept though.