ubuy2wron

ericopoly of course I am speaking about averages residential real estate is an intensely local mkt. It is for this very reason I believe the RMBS pools will make some INFORMED buyers rich. Go out and get real appraisals on the underlying properties then go out and do real credit checks on the owners make some realistic assumptions about defaul rates combine this with very low cost borrowing because of the govt. partnership and I see literaly billions of dollars of potential profits picking up the right toxic assets at the right price. It was interesting to remember Warren commenting that he would be a buyer of RMBS securities if he could buy them with govt. financing terms I wonder if he will be one of the participants

Actualy what passes for corporate democracy in North America is like communist Russia. If you base corp compensation as the only basis to buy shares ,BRKA and FFH are the only companies that pass the smell test.

You are right the credit boom caused all real estate prices to increase in California and pretty much every other real estate mkt around the globe. The rising tide lifted all boats however the little boats get bounced around more than the large battleshps. Homes that were selling in CA for 1 million plus in 2000 doubled in value on avg trough to peak homes that sold for 200k tripled in value today the price disparity has pretty much disappeared the decline in the lower end of the mkt has eliminated that price differential. Given that the low end of the mkt appears pretty darn healthy all things considered and given it is 1st time buyers who really fuel the entire mkt. I predict the bear mkt in California real estate is pretty much over. I agree with you however that there will be some interesting buys in the trophy property mkt in the next 6 months because the dynamics are different and the motivations of the sellers may be different. Sell a trophy property to raise cash to invest in distressed deal that pays off 10 fold can be a pretty dramatic motivator.

There are lies ,dam lies and then there are statistics. The numbers which get the headlines are the avg home price declined by x%. The lie is in the average, the basket that traded last year was dramatically different than the basket of homes that traded this year. This year the homes that traded were largely below median price homes that were sold on distressed terms ie. subprime foreclosures. If one really starts to mine the data one sees that in every mkt the lower end of the mkt went up a lot more and has fallen a lot more in value since the year 2000. This was almost entirely a result of the freely available credit which was made to borrowers who had not historicaly participated in the housing mkt. The decline in residential real estate values has NOT been as dramatic for those areas of the mkt where the extreme excesses caused by the credit distortions did not take place. The residential real estate mkt is by no means monolithic which leads me to believe that some thoughtfull analysis of the the contenets of the RMBS securities is going to make some players VERY rich. The participants who have the best information are the traditional mortgage issuers.

They are not supposed to lend out the securities if you do not have a debit balance but they do it occurs when the broker on the other side fails to deliver and they do not force a buy in which they seldom do for their large clients, small retail clients ALWAYS get bought in. Horrible games are played in proxy fights and contested take-overs ,corporate democracy is for all intents and purposes a complete sham.

Would like the oppotunity.

CNBC commented this AM that competitiors to AIG were complaining that AIG was currently guilty of aggressive pricing because of its govt. backing. Has the bail-out delayed the hard mkt we hoped for. Some posters here are insurance industry participants any anectodal observations would be appreciated re the pricing trends in the industry

Geitner may be the weakest link in the Obama administration but Blodget makes Cramer look ethical he is nothing but a hedgie wh*re and I appologize to the wh*res out there for the character slam.

I am not so sure as you on ,they are not priced as low as 1981, while the mkt is trading at a higher multiple today than it was in 1981 is it really. I could get 13 percent in 10 year treasuries vs a SP multiple of 8 , I suspect that the mkt historians may be arguing equities were historically underpriced on March 2009 when using this relative valuation metric.

I just checked the NYSE Reg Sho list this am. There was a grand total of one company on the list GM. Talk about closing the barn door AFTER the horse has left the barn. I suspect the game has changed to one of trying to use the media to keep prices down so you can initiate a long position. I noticed that BRKA had a zero declared short position as of mid Feb tally yet it was under a full fledged media assault. Short and distort is dead long live pump and dump!!!!!!

CDS contracts are not evil per se but some of the players are.The futures, options and other derivatives mkts have changed over the years. There was for may years position limits on options and futures which ensured that no single player could corner a market ,for markets to function properly they need to be fair and have many participants none of which singly can affect prices for anything other than a fleeting moment. Unregulated free market capitalism is not a pretty sight we are seeing some of the result of the lack of no adult supervision in the play ground we call the market place today.

I think this puts to rest any question on is BRK subject to a bear raid . I am more than just a little peeved that the usual gang of mobsters are playing their typical games I suspect the players are exactly the same as those who attacked Prem and FFH hopefully they end up with the same results. I watched the Larry Kudlow interview of Doug Kass and just wanted to throw-up.

I have just finished reading Patrick Byrnes latest post in Deep Capture and I think that BRK is under a bear raid however I believe the real target is GE and BRK is just a little side bet. I never liked how GE managed their earnings however I believe that GE at under 4 times trailing earnings is pretty frickin compelling managed earnings or not!!!!

I believe the major difference between Soros and Buffett is Soros thinks he can predict the future and Warren knows he can not.

I also purchased B's today however I am aware that WB has stated that he will be converting a shares to b shares every year for the next 2o years and the b shares may be sold for the foundations funding purposes. This will result in an increase in the A-B spread all things being equal, it will also result in an increase in voting control of the A shares, I have not thought this through however at some point in time control of BRK will come into play I suspect it will reside with Bill Gates who has spent the last 15 years learning about value investing from the master his masterpiece compunding money machine should remain intact for another 30 plus years.

The link talks about 4.6 million not billion but who's counting.