ubuy2wron

1- I have been on Wall Street for 30 years. I can assure you I can not name 1 other Institutional AllAmerican Analyst. I also believe her reputation and career as an analyst was also aided by Warrens attention. So much for her fame prior to The Snowball. 2Regarding her wealth I have no inkling however I am guessing only a handfull of people other than Alice are aware of what her net-worth was prior to the Snowball. 3 I have also had the opportunity to listen to Alice speak and she intimated that a great deal of Warrens investment prowress was a result of inside information and that she would reveal all in her next book the great wizard would be revealed to be just a mortal. 4 I only suspect that Warren was more than a little upset of the portrayl of Susie it makes him appear to be a cuckold and her worse. Since then Alice has given him far better reasons to not want to have anything to do with her.

I know nothing about how this impacts capital ratios etc. but my only question is what took them so long. This is exactly how Ireland dealt with their housing collapse. If this catches fire it could be the single biggest thing short term for housing prices. A rent to own program is a huge win for every one involved .

ECRI are still defending their recession call. Hope the link works.http://advisoranalyst.com/glablog/2012/03/16/ecri-why-our-recession-call-stands/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+advisoranalyst+%28AdvisorAnalyst+Views%29

Speaking of slimey, greaseball, scumbuckets ... did you read about Silvercorps lawsuit filed on the blunder from down under - John Hempton? The scuttlebutt is Howard Shapray, acting counsel to Silvercorp is an absolute animal. The biggest ass-kicker, take no prisoners lawyer in Vancouver. Have fun John. I know Howard I sure would want him on my side if I was in a legal dispute.

The consensus view is housing is a train wreck and will continue to be a mess for years... this trade is so one sided right now that I wonder if the opposite view is not a profitable way to go. Viking, Me thinks you have not paid much attention to the homebuilders, the index has pretty much doubled since OCT. 4 the only group that has done better have been the European banks which only the TRUELY BRAVE (or foolishly brave) bought in the fall. I think Warrens little company may be one of the most interesting ways to safely participate if this residential real estate turn around has any legs.

Plus have ya noticed some corporate equities are yielding more than their debt. Also buying stocks and then hedging with the index is basically saying I can pick stocks I can ad alpha. If anyone can make this claim its Watsa Hamblin. As I have said before FFH is a hedge fund masquerading as an insurance company without the 2 and 20 vig and all partners locked in for ever. FFH is the perfect investment for scardy cat bulls right now. If the mkt is turning and about to get a lot harder then Prem will do just fine. Now I am a shareholder again maybe I can make it to the annual meeting

I bought some today after selling my last bit day before dividend announcement. What part of " the returns over the long term will be satisfactory but lumpy is every one having a problem with"

I agree but I'll go even further. I think people are allowing their value investing bias to warp their sense of reality. The "rich spoiled kid that does nothing with his life" is the exception. I'd wager anyone here $100USD that if you took a statistical sample of the children of the very wealthy, they'd blow the accomplishments of the middle-class sample away. And I'd take the same wager on a middle-class sample blowing a poverty-class sample away. Unfortunately, that's life. Sick but true. My fiance and I had a discussion similar to this when talking about school for her children. She went to an elite private high school as did her older brother. She went to Yale undergrad, he went to University of Texas Plan II Honors. She is a very successful lawyer now and he is a very successful doctor. I, however, went to a public high-school and did well for myself. However, we couldn't help but notice the difference in our paths. In their school, kids were extremely bright and going Ivy League was almost expected (I think between a third and a half of her school gets Ivy League placement.) In my school, the top 1 or 2 students out of 1000 went Ivy League. It was so fucking hard and it was a good public school. But the odds were WAY, WAY against going Ivy League. You were more likely to drop out altogether than go Ivy League (statistically.) So, the point of my story is this: the children of the rich aren't spoiled brats. In fact, they probably represent the majority of the top-level professionals in the world. That's a fact. Sorry. The idea that keeping your money or your connections from your children to give them some "independence" or sense of personal achievement is more a nice sentiment than a rational plan (rational being defined as doing what gives your child the greatest chance of success.) I feel that my job as a parent is giving my child the best chance to be successful. If that means sending them to the most elite schools or giving them access to any connections I have, I will do it if I can afford to do so. Statistically speaking, I think it'd be a mistake not to do so. One of the most important books in the last 30 years IMO was the Bell Curve. It dealt with how IQ was creating a world of have and have nots. The trends were pretty much undeniable, a small subsection of the cognative elite were going to run the world. It was after reading this book I determined that I would provide my son with the best education that he could attain. He graduated in Dec with a master degree his live in girl friend will be completing her law degree in a few months. They both got a great education and no debt when they graduated. That is it however I may help in a minor way if a home is purchased in the future and I will likely spoil any grand kids a bit but no trust funds or promises of anything other than my endearing love.

. Don't blame the gun for being shot. Had to laugh when I read that one but...... why hand out a bunch of UZI's to a bunch of sociopaths. Wall street has shown itself to be a den of thieves over and over again. I am certain we would have a better world if this stuff was not institutionalized. Dark Pools, HFT, Synthetic securities, naked shorting ,credit default swaps, the list is endless, would the world be any worse off if they all went away?

I was going to post the link you beat me to the punch Parsad. You know if FFH or OSTK never receives legal satisfaction I will be satisified if at least some of the cock roaches are stepped on and at a few of the bigger players have some sleepless nights.

A+++++. While I was scribing my response to the debate your post appeared. This is the issue I do believe the public is ahead of both parties on this issue most believe that tax increases and enititlement reductions are required. It is only the ideologues who think otherwise.

Gee Tim Buffetts secretary may or may not receive promised government benefits. It is pretty clear that if any of the current Republican contenders have their way in the matter the amount of promised benefits she will receive is pretty much moot. Plus since the pie that is being cut up here is a little larger than individuals share of government benefits do you not think it just a little misleading to focus the debate around the share of govt. benefits. I wonder how much of BRK companies profits are derived directly from govt. expenditures.

David is a master of Spin. Prolly no one is better at it than him right now. Of course he had material non public information the CEO of the company in question should also been fined. In Davids and others case however I am not sure a fine is enough. How many times have agressive hedgies gotten an "edge" and not been charged. For the truely unscrupulous this is just a tax. I am not putting Einhorn in this camp just saying.

I read somewhere that MSFT hires more Waterloo grads than any other N.A. university. As far as Prem sitting on RIMMs board since it is one or FFH's largest investments a board position can not be construed as taking him away from FFH's interest ,more good than bad can flow to FFH and its shareholders because of this IMO.

I was pretty sure that a bubble existed in US housing by the end of 2006 the home builders were in a tail spin which I surmised was a pretty reliable tell. I felt the best way to play it was to purchase puts on the companies selling the worst mortgages hence I purchased puts on Country wide in June of 2007. Shorting country wide did not start to work until almost a year later. I would like to be able to relate how I made a bundle on my country wide bet but the options I purchased actually cost me some money as I got in too soon. The lesson learned is that it is ALWAYS difficult to see which side is winning the war in the thick of the battle.

If Europe has a serious recession which seems to me a reasonable expectation then robust growth in the US is not very likely that said a housing turn around and I mean nothing more than an consistent uptick in housing construction and a continued uptick in auto sales should be enough to keep the American economy above zero for the forseeable future. If the 99% are not buying homes or cars there is no economy in the US. The most interesting change in the markets in the last 3 weeks is the fact that the risk on off trade is no longer corelated to the US Euro cross. We should be back to normal volumes starting next week can the mkts continue to climb their wall of worry?

Eric I suspect that these stats are at least partially a reflection of the of the hollowing out of the middle class through the 30 year trends in taxation and trade. The simple fact is if we have trickle up as opposed to trickle down economic policies going forward we will have a reversal of home ownersip trends and an economy which is rising much faster and lifting ALL boats.

We agree on that one. ZH- such a concentration of nasty misanthropes. I do find myself straying over there when I want to hear what the otherside is thinking and they are the other side.

I think the single best way to lose money in the mkt is to allow fear and greed to rule your investment decisions. The 2nd best method is the non judicious use of credit , the combination of the two is almost a guarantee of a train wreck. I have had personal experience with almost EVERY method that has been documented here and elsewhere to lose money and I am continually discovering new and creative ways to lose dough. I suspect that losing over all is much more difficult than this thread posits how ever. Mr Chanos has not exactly been knocking it out of the park in the last 12 years which has been arguably the best period to lose money in a couple of generations.

This position was confirmed by another biography, I have read pretty much all of them and I can remember a passage where Warren compained of being asset rich and cash poor, according to this biographer he solved this problem by borrowing and investing personaly and the bulk of his non BRK fortune was created through this method. So basically his non BRK fortune which was close to zero in the mid seventies was built through a judicious use of margin. It would be an interesting exercise to calculate wether BRK or his personal portfolio has had the higher rate of return.

I lived through it as well, and it was not so bad, the only thing thats different is now pretty much every one in the developed world is going to have to go through what Canada went through. The downside of that is that it will likely be worse in Canada now than then unless as a nation we decide to live slightly above our means.

I am basically computer illiterate I do not know how to spell check this post I tried to set up an rss news feed today I do not know how. I am definately part of the 90 % >. My son will be home this weekend to help put of the tree he will set up my rss new feed my wife can not send me a text messgae and she has no excuse as she is only 41.

See attached link http://www.zerohedge.com/news/was-seth-klarman-just-exposed-bank-americas-biggest-short-and-covert-mbia-long

Here is my prediction on the next 100 bagger. It will be on the the new low list at the end of the year it will have a mkt cap well under 1 billion. It will have so much hair on it no one here will want to buy it and if any of us do we will sell it long before it reaches multi bagger status. I have owned a few 100 baggers in my career never went along for the the complete ride a prettier girl allways comes along and yo do not make till death do us part pledges to investment s unless you are WB or its your company.

zerohedge is suggesting its some short BAC long MBIA strategy that Klarman is executing. I frankly doubt it ,kudos to Seth if he pulls it off. The only problem I have with all of this other than its my ox he is goring cuz I am long BAC leaps, is the lawsuit does not benefit those who have suffered damages cuz Set prolly bought them super duper cheap and the poor pension fund that took the loss aint gonna benefit and the villains like Mr perma tan are also enjoying their lives pretty much care free. The teachers who have an under funded pension and will have to accept a lower standard of living for the remainder of their days will get bumpkis from all of this. But thats kinda how it works on wall street.