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xxx1313

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Everything posted by xxx1313

  1. Postponed examinations and surgeries is one factor, but probably not the only one. Increased risk of death from SARS-CoV-2 is not limited to the acute illness: SARS-CoV-2 infection carries a substantially increased mortality in the following 12 months. This is what still shows up in the mortality statistics, even though these cases are not included in official covid death statistics. Long-term mortality following SARS-CoV-2 infection: A national cohort study from Estonia - The Lancet Regional Health – Europe
  2. some more: NSC & CSX UNP & BNSF/BRK_A ORCL & SAP
  3. GE & UTX (narrow-body jet engines) GE & Rolls Royce (wide-body jet engines) Sonova & William Demant Intel & AMD NVIDIA & ATI/AMD
  4. British food retailers, Tesco and Morrison's. And nearly everything mining-related.
  5. Be very careful with Chinese (I mean PRC) companies trading in Singapore. Many of them were/are fraudulent. Among large caps in Sinpagore, Jardine Matheson and Jardine Strategic seem reasonably priced, for example. Unfortunately, I cannot trade stocks in Singapore via my brokers.
  6. Mawson West (the cheapest stock I know), Nevsun Resources, Teranga Gold and Emeco Holdings (mining equipment rental company). Their prices could easily double (or more) without commodity prices moving much.
  7. I bought some shares of Nevsun Resources and Mawson West. Both low-cost producers, but with high political risk (Africa). Never saw stocks so cheap before on an EV/CF or EV/FCF basis!
  8. I did not know that Mayr-Melnhof and Semperit are among the largest holdings of these Royce Funds. These guys seem to know their business. ;-) Last week I also came across Recordati, a rather small Italian pharmaceutical company. Great track record, still growing, Recordati family behind the company, p/e of 10. Its most important drug lost patent protection about two years ago, but sales still hold up very well. Interesting and cheap stock. But some U.S. medical technology companies trade at only slightly higher p/e ratios (ZMH, SYK, STJ, MDT). So I did not pull the trigger yet.
  9. @oddballstocks Which company are you looking at in Austria? Semperit? Mayr-Melnhof? BWT? These are no net-nets, but cheap quality stocks.
  10. Greetings to everybody from Linz, Austria! :D
  11. no, not USG. USG has little chance to survive the next recession. it is still losing 15 cents on every dollar of revenue.
  12. I bought a little bit of Nestle stock in the second half of 2009 when its adjusted PE was about 10, unadjusted it was about 12. Since then, management did a really good job. The stock is a good "hold" in my opinion. You can buy a little bit, but right nowthere are other attractive opporunities out there. Some tech stocks and European energy stocks seem to be very cheap (higher margin of safety, but probably that higher margin of safety, in comparison to Nestle, is required). CHF/USD does not matter in the long run. Nestle is a global player, so curreny movements do not matter much. Moreover, I would feel saver having some CHF than too much USD. Switzerland does not have deficit problems and is a good place for a headquarters.
  13. yeah, exactly. but taking out special items it always traded with a small discount to kft, danone or unilever. i like all those stocks as a store of value (i hold no bonds - these stocks are my proxy for bonds), but their margin of safety is not huge at the moment. if i could buy only one stock for the next 20 years, it would be nestle though. low risk, defendable business, some moat, reasonable price, good management.
  14. Many thanks for your ideas and the discussion! @alwaysinvert: I am very cautious with banks. Banking is necessary, but banks are not. Less than two decades ago, Sweden had to nationalize its banking system, as far as I remember. Svenska Handelsbanken may be good quality, but banks are not really within my circle of competence. Swedish Match looks good. Another Swedish company I already took a look at is SCA (Svenska Cellulosa). Not a bad company. @StubbleJumper, SharperDingaan: The Eurozone has its problems, because Europe did not reach a real political union by now. If we had the "United States of Europe", nobody would care about the deficits of Greece, Portugal or Ireland. In the US, California and probably some other states are basically bankrupt, but the market does not care about it. What really scares me is that the Fed clearly seems to accept future inflation, the ECB does not (at least by now). I still think that the Eurozone may survive and make its way. Norway is a small country, running out of oil soon and its sovereign wealth fund is heavily invested in USD an EUR. Still, it might be a kind of a safe haven. Unfortunately, except Statoil and Seadrill I do not know many Norwegian companies. Investing in stable companies in a petro-currency is worth thinking about, thanks for the idea.
  15. In my home country (Austria) capital gains from stocks bought this year will remain exempted from tax for many years, whereas gains from stocks bought after January 1, 2011 will be taxed. This is an incentive to buy stocks now for a long period and ideally forever - a discipline Warren Buffett would have no problems with. As a European investor, however, I have some problems to identifiy enough growing bellwether stocks with defendable moat. As I expect the USD to stay weak compared to the EUR in the long run, I would prefer European stocks. This is no absolute k.o. for US stocks in my opinion, but a disadvantage. Up to now, the following European stocks came to my mind as possible targets: - Nestle - Unilever (only little growth, however) - Tesco - Siemens - BP (turnaround situation, little long-term growth, but not a bad company in my opinion) - Pargesa (holding company with investments in Lafarge, GDF Suez, Total and Pernod Ricard) - SAP AG - H&M (a bit expensiv now) More ideas would be highly appreciated. Thanks in advance! xxx1313
  16. Hi BeerBaron, thanks for your idea. I am not quite familiar with CSKI, however there are many cheap chinese micro caps out there. For example, beside CSKI, I have SKBI, CADC, CHIO, CSR, AOB and HQS on my watch list or in my portfolio. They all trade with forward P/Es between 4 and 7. Some of them traded at trailing P/Es < 2 a year ago. I think you have to adopt a Graham style approach - buy a broad range of those stocks with small amounts or at least a handful of those that look quite good to you. Many of them will double or triple, but there will be some losers too. xxx1313
  17. The USD carry trade might become the next bubble. But I think we are still in stage 3 now.
  18. Nasdaq OMX looks even cheaper. Lower P/E and below book value but much goodwill.
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