Myth465

Germany would be screwed without the Euro. A sky high currency for a nation with high exports..... They would have to debase the currency to make it all work, and I am not sure if Germany is willing to do that. This problem seems to offer no good solutions. Its in the too hard pile, but I have some popcorn and am enjoying / fearing the next chapter in the show.

Humm Peak oil or peak cheap energy like most things has a lot of sects. I dont believe in the doom and gloom variety . Its not that we dont have the capacity to move beyond the problem or issue. Its more that there is no leadership to do so in a smart efficient none painful way. I think as in most things in life, we will muddle through. Though in my opinion there will be pain and profits along the way. As with most crisis / events - my goal is to avoid the pain and enjoy the profits. Ray is an interesting guy, I recommend Transcendent Man if you have some time. Its thought provoking.

I have no direct exposure to Europe. Its in the too hard pile and it appears they dont have the will to finally solve the problem. No economy or people will suffer through 25 years of austerity so lenders can avoid having egg on their face. With that said extend and pretend is working very well here in commercial re.

I think asset prices wouldnt be as high as they are now. This is partially why I am raising cash. People do feel wealthier and happier, hell I do. Just getting 401ks back to par did alot inmo.

I agree with you. I invest as if we wont be rational, until we have no choice. This quote describes me well - "Behind every cynic is a disappointed idealist" This quote inmo describes America best - Winston Churchill You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else.

This is what I have been wanting for quite a while. The problem is few things are competitive at $60 oil and oil tends to cause rolling price spikes. Its quite interesting. I think the Government should make oil $105 regardless of the market price. Anything more goes to oil companies, anything less and the government gets the difference. That difference should go to a Manhattan project on finding the next big thing. The project would have to find a renewable energy source that is cheaper then $105 oil. I dont see any holes inmo.

Horrible title but very good read thanks for the link. Humm, inmo we see things playing out quite similarly I just predict a nice windfall for current low price producers as this plays out.

Lol so true.

I just relistened to the audio book. I read it or listened to it at 21 and now get so much more out of it. Interesting...

LOL, I think you would be among the group which would benefit the most. Aw where is Bronco, I would like to see the dividend vs. buyback debate again.

Thanks alot for the MP3. Saved me a bunch of reading.

Thanks alot for the video.

Damn. But funny. Interesting debate between you two. Learning quite a bit. I know who to piggyback in Tech you guys have so much history with it.

Thats true. Hurricane season is right around the corner.

LOL I think people are too rough on Steve antics aside. His real crime is taking over with a noise bleed stock price. With Gates approving and discussing major capital allocation I dont know how you can not like Steve but trust Gates.

oddballstocks I can only speak for myself, but I think you are fine and also believe whatever error may have been committed has been correct. I would PM Parsad or create a new post because this is an interesting and new thing which as far as I know hasnt been discussed. Thanks for posting the free links.

I have to admit after watching a few videos of Ballmer 2 weeks ago. I havent thought about MSFT as much. The guy is passionate though, crazy passionate ::)

With options the stock only has to move a bit over the next 1.5 years, and 2.5 years if you wait for the 2014s. The stock would have to move up a good 15% - 30% for a shareholder to win. An option holder wins big on a 15% - 20% move. The calls have very little premium in them because the stock hasnt moved in 13 years. It hasnt moved because it was overpriced. They have grown through that and are now ready to run. It lacks a catalyst, but you can roll over a 3% option position pretty easily....

Lol interesting story. Ya this is getting old, I cant wait for a calm 8% return year in the market primary based on earnings growth.....

Thats been my game plan, but its not working with FFH or LRE. LRE due to people becoming more comfortable with them and FFH due to the delisting inmo. May have to just buy up and ride the wave. I think summer will be very interesting with Europe and then an interesting Hurricane season. Its been a few years since we have had a big one. Global warming seems to be doing a number on the insurance sector.

I had 7/8 of my paper net worth evaporate (employee options). It was over a half million in losses... I was 28. I thought I had a few bad days. Damn havent been there yet. Did it change the way you look at losses, gains, and investing. Thats nuts, not sure what I would do. I was wondering why you had the Judges name on recall.

Lampert has everyone grasping for straws. First he was going to merge all companies under Sears. Now he wants to merge Gap into Sears. I go with occam's razor. This is just another vanilla equity position.....

I think its pretty smart. Bruce could buy additional shares using FAIRX, taking ownership up to 60%-75%. That gives Joe the capital to acquire quite a bit. Look at what Klarman does, Bruce cant do alot of those style transactions. With Joe he can. I also think he really enjoyed the work he did on General Growth, Joe will give him additional flexibility. I dont think its material to FAIRX, but his smaller focus fund could be heavily into Joe. I think Joe started off as passive. Einhorn pointed out it sucked, he stepped in, and after sleeping on it he has new ideas for it. Its probably a bit of lipstick on a pig, but its a good idea inmo.

So when they get crushed they will move into MSFT. Long MSFT and GOOG, short CRM? Not bad if you think the crushing is around the corner. What was the catalyst for the 2000 tech crash, what caused the run for the doors?

If there is a fender bender in Maine, C&F will have a combined ratio of 110. Lol, that was pretty funny.