Myth465

Most other items are flat. I am up pretty decently, but all a large chuck of the gains from Jan and Feb are gone. It still sucks just as much.

I agree with you with regard to the board but whats your take on the LVLT issue.

6 weeks down will do that to you. I went all in early this week, plan on just taking a vacation. This too shall pass, though I am not sure how. ATSG is my favorite investment current, ROICW is the speculation of the month.

I have felt this way for a while. Thanks for posting. I feel like LVLT posts should stay in teh LVLT thread, I dont understand the need to make every thread on the board about level 3. Perhaps its a great investment, but one of 10,000 plus securities. Also its just 2-3 posters......

I think people are a bit off. A PC / laptop should hit $150 sooner or later. Why remove a 250 gig hard drive when it costs nothing? Its just not making any sense. I think everything will coexist. I can see companies using cloud for software management, but people (or at least I, will always want mass local storage) and access to files while offline. I see this working like dropbox, and not much else. All of this dumb terminal stuff is overblown.

I see where you are coming from, but I also think its a waste of time. You realistically have only 4 real moats. Patents High Switching Costs I am too lazy to name or find the other two. Bruce had a book about this, and so did Pat Dorsey. I recommend buying either if you really want to know. Alternatively you can read this. http://www.thesimpledollar.com/2008/03/21/review-the-little-book-that-builds-wealth/ I would instead focus on trying to kill a business and buying at a discount to IV. If there is a moat there just buy twice as much ;D. ATSG doesnt have a moat, but its a small business that I like thats pretty tough to kill inmo, without investing loads of capital. --- Plan A is always to buy the Coke and Moody's of the world at 50% off. If you buy these type of businesses at that discount and it takes 2-3 years to trade at intrinsic value, you'll do very well. Intrinsic value will be much higher in 2 to 3 years. So 50 cents may be worth $1.30 or $1.40. This is always Plan A. But plan A is virtually impossible to execute across the entire portfolio because they are so very very rare. (Work Horse Positions) When plan A fails, we go to plan B. Plan B is to buy at half off, regardless of business quality (as long as you're pretty sure intrinsic value is very unlikely to decline). Most of Pabrai Funds investments over the years have been Plan B. ---- I find that most people perform Plan B, but lie to themselves and come up with some BS moat that isnt worth anything. I have done it in the past. Its a waste of time, if you do plan B, do so knowingly. Lets avoid the bed of procrustes. Damn. I linked to that review and then decided to auctually read it. I havent read the book, but we pretty much agree. Also the 4 moats are listed here. I may have to pick this one up. Dont invent a moat for your write up. It will just cost you money. Trust me I am speaking form experience. This is what my typical write up looks like now with regard to the 4 filters. Filter #2 – Does the business have a durable competitive advantage? Not really. But its cheap, cheap enough to buy without a moat. Hopefully it works out... Chapter Two – Mistaken Moats - From that explanation, it’s easy to visualize moats for almost any company. Any company with any size is doing something right, and it’s easy to confuse immediate success with competitive advantage. However, quick success usually has very little to do with true competitive advantage. Take Tommy Hilfiger, for example. Once, it seemed they were building a globally competitive brand – but now you can find Tommy clothes on discount racks. The dot-com busts like Pets.com are in the same boat – they seemed to have a competitive advantage because of the internet, but it was a mistaken advantage. There are really only four sources of true competitive advantage: intangible assets (like patents or licenses), customer switching costs (meaning it’s hard for a customer to give up that specific product – think Microsoft), network economics (like an ingrained shipping network), and cost advantages (control over some method of making the product cheaper than competitors are able to). A company with at least one of these and a nice return on capital is a good one to invest in.

/thread Post of the day, at least thus far.

http://online.wsj.com/video/rogers-only-a-crisis-can-fix-us-debt-problem/7B14FAAB-F745-4ECA-ADB4-F8D5BD0A2C96.html?mod=WSJ_Article_Videocarousel_3 Nice long interview.

Ya its a cop out. People will pay an accountant millions to save hundreds of thousands in taxes so ...... I think taxes should be viewed as part of the costs to receive a return. It would have been wise to take a 10%-30% tax hit to buy stock with the remaining proceeds at a severe discount to IV but what do I know....

Honestly some of you guys are acting like this is the only game in town. There are probably 20,000 other securities. My advice get to rebutting the report or move on. Its a gamble for sure, but is it mispriced? Charlie Munger - We look for a horse with one chance in two of winning and which pays you three to one. Charlie Munger - You’re looking for a mispriced gamble. That’s what investing is. And you have to know enough to know whether the gamble is mispriced. That’s value investing.

Another gem of a post.

You're probably wrong. Personal experience is an overweight contributor when making predictions. ;D Both of these are quite funny. Lol.

Bloomberg has some aweful writers. What the hell is up with that piece - 1990s hiphop......

BTX is shaping up nicely as well ;D I trust you'll be back with a humble frowny face if one of the stocks on your list is up 10% at some point in time. Lol

I have taken a position in RDI. There are plenty of good writeups on seeking Alpha. What has changed in my opinion is Management is communicating more and is in my opinion working on unlocking the value embedded in the NYC and Melbourne assets. My theory is if you subtract out a conservative value for the realty, you get the cinema business for free or cheap. Thanks Packer.

Welcome back Harry, always a good conversation / debate when you are around. I would like to understand your short thesis on MSFT and GOOG. I have no stake. I do however own TAT and would be curious to know why you are short. For the most part for me its a play on Management which could work out well or end badly. What do you see.

Humm not a bad idea.

My mornings are free, gave up Cable News and Sunday morning shows about 2 years ago. Huge time wasters for much of the same reasons you laid out. Thanks again for the gem though. I plan to watch the interview today and will pickup the book when I have a some downtime. Interesting stuff, probably very useful for investing. Perhaps this explains why I always clue in when Prem Watsa speaks - He seems very fox like. Buffett is interesting too, but is too much of a Perma Optimist for me. Krugman did give Obama a pass for a year or so. Now he is back to hammering away, but you do have a point.

Not for me but I wish you luck. Seed capital is scarce and shouldnt be squandered. I have realized that I dont know much, and know nothing about China. Buying a small or midcap holding hoping to stick it big just doesnt work for me. It worked in Korea for Buffett, but Korea wasnt riddled with fraud. I think its hard to make money off a basket with a few total losses. Add HOGS to the list. Nice story not sure why its down 15% today. Some major fund guy owns it and the Chinese love pork.

INMO Rose is much better than a Sunday show. I have been watching for 2 years and inmo its the best news and information show on TV. http://longnow.org/seminars/02007/jan/26/why-foxes-are-better-forecasters-than-hedgehogs/ Had to Google Tetlock's Hedgehog lol. There is nothing wrong with Ideology inmo. This issue is when bad ideas arent scrapped or when it isnt adjusted to fit reality. Both sides of Economics and Politics are filled with Ideological hacks. Just the ones on the left appear more fact base and rationale. If you watch the Krugman interview you will find that he was pretty prescient. The US inmo feels more and more like Argentina..... Dismiss the man due to his Ideology, but him, Stiglitz, Roubini, and a few others were pretty on point thus far (though perhaps a bit extreme here or there). The other side isnt bating too high inmo. ---- Interesting read, thanks for the comment. Now I have another video to watch lol. I aim to be a fox. Hopefully we continue to muddle through. It’s a matter of judgement style, first expressed by the ancient Greek warrior poet Archilochus: “The fox knows many things; the hedgehog one great thing.” The idea was later expanded by essayist Isaiah Berlin. In Tetlock’s interpretation, Hedgehogs have one grand theory (Marxist, Libertarian, whatever) which they are happy to extend into many domains, relishing its parsimony, and expressing their views with great confidence. Foxes, on the other hand are skeptical about grand theories, diffident in their forecasts, and ready to adjust their ideas based on actual events. The aggregate success rate of Foxes is significantly greater, Tetlock found, especially in short-term forecasts. And Hedgehogs routinely fare worse than Foxes, especially in long-term forecasts. They even fare worse than normal attention-paying dilletantes — apparently blinded by their extensive expertise and beautiful theory. Furthermore, Foxes win not only in the accuracy of their predictions but also the accuracy of the likelihood they assign to their predictions— in this they are closer to the admirable discipline of weather forecasters. Hedgehogs annoy only their political opposition, while Foxes annoy across the political spectrum, in part because the smartest Foxes cherry-pick idea fragments from the whole array of Hedgehogs.

Thanks for this long interview. I have watched about 5 interviews with this guy and am a big Fan. He is like a plan speaking better performing Bill Gross. I feel he is also much more nimble, I dont know how Gross can manage that much money. All roads point to range bound markets and 7 lean years. I am going to update all my holdings and head off for the summer, watching the market these days is like watching paint dry. I wonder what will cause the next uptick.

Thanks for the link. Krugman also was on Rose on Friday which will come up on Monday online. I am a big Krugman fan, he is probably my 3rd favorite economist with Stiglitz being first. I can understand the problems people have with Keynesian economics, but we have not been practicing Keynesian economic policies. During the good times we cut taxes and waste money, and during bad times we cut taxes and spend money. This isnt Keynesian, this is just run away spending and reduced revenues. Keynesian is counter cyclical and requires savings during good times.... I hate to come off as a political hack, but the economists on the left appear to be rationale and fact base and the ones of the right appear to be dogmatic and theory oriented.

I wouldnt fight Muddy Waters though I have no dog in this fight. Either they know what they are doing and plan on being the next Jim Chanos, or they are a small time deal who have built up a positive loop and are now cashing in on their prior wins. Personally inmo there is more money to be made by being the next Chanos (the short seller all the business channels have on call). This is a game of do you know your holdings. I own 14 stocks. 4 were bought on metrics or as a trade of some sorts, and the rest are longer term holdings. If a report came out on one of my holdings I would hold 5, sell 5, and buy 4 hand over fist. I dont know TRE or EBIX and its moments like these that make it hard to double down. If you hold you are now in the game show - Do you know your stock. Door A - Big money if you double down and know your stock. Door B - Recover if you know your stock and hold. Door C - Big loss / growing loss if you double down or hold and you dont know your stock. Pick your door, your prize awaits. I can only buy something in this situation when I have been watching for years and have a deep understanding of the business and full confidence in Management. If you knew and trusted Prem you won big, if you stuck to your bias and quoted the PE of some bus company in China that you read about on VIC then ........... In the interest of full disclosure I lost money on Irish Banks and CHCG. I still speculate and hangout in bars, but I know what I own and why I own it. If its simple metrics I would sell. If you been listening to calls for years and know the Management team by voice, name, and can just about quote them (because you have been involved for years and have heard the spill over and over) then I would hold or buy. Im like that with 8 companies. That list keeps growing every year. I cant wait for my fat pitch. Also there is a huge difference between an Auditor, Forensic Accountant, and Analyst. Some people think all three jobs entail the same. Just because you know accounting doesn't mean you know how to spot fraud .....

I think some of you guys are being a bit rough. This isnt a hot dog stand business where 5-8x earnings makes sense. It is probably the most dominate tech company on the planet. I dont like to pay up for anything but they have a virtual monopoly which will grow with the computing industry. Thats worth at least 10x - 12x earnings after cash deductions. Windows 8 makes a good catalyst for 2013 leaps. MBI down a few more to go.

How do you think it would work now with Asian countries and everyone looking to devalue to prop up exports. I think at some point they would be priced out and would have a hard time printing money due to historical issues and culture.