Valuehalla

I agree totally with Dynamic The buyback shall be increased. Its to long already on a level of 1.2 1) cause of tax reform 2) cause time passed by (goodwill effect fe geico)

The quarter in done BRK is extremly cheap, just trading at 1,28 x BV BRK.B price $186.65 -6.4% since end Q1 BV per B app $145.20 1.29 app 3 % up since end Q1 KHC adj BVPS app $146.10 1.28 app 3 % up since end Q1 BRK a big big buy !

Fairfax Financial increased its holding of CenturyLink CTL in Q1 by 29 %. It is now the 7th largest position in the portfolio of FFH with 2,3% of the portfolio. I would like call your attention on the CTL section of the forum, where i publish a lot about CTL: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/ctl-centurylink/200/ Although the price went up already from its low of 13,16 to 19 $ now, i think its still cheap and a great valueinvestment, flanked by a 11,7 % dividend yield. Free Cash Flow of CTL is expected around 3,15 to 3,35 B in 2018 and the marketcap is just 20,5 B today

Could anyone out there provide an estimated figure for the 2018 overall average taxrate for - Railroad Utility and Energy - Other Businesses - Insurance Underwriting - Insurance Investment Income - Investment Derivates & Losses I think it overall in average 26 %... what do you think ?

What do you think about the effective taxrate in 2018 on the following positions: - Railroad Utility and Energy - Other Businesses - Insurance Underwriting - Insurance Investment Income - Investment Derivates & Losses I think it overall in average 26 %... what do you think ? (Gains of the portfolio are subject to 21 % deferred tax) .. so the question is about all the rest in avg

With the new investment in CTL, Prem has done a great decision. But I hope he will increase this very small position after the positive Q4 figures which came out yesterday.

I think fundamentally it looks like that: In an environment of increasing interest rates states like Greece, Italy etc. can not stand higher interest on their bonds. So the ECB is destinated to keep on buying or even extending the buying of gov bonds. In US the interest rates for T-Bills will rise and the widening spread will lead to a stronger USD against EUR.

thats what we like: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/25/trump-says-dollar-to-get-stronger-and-stronger.html

When I started the MELT UP chapter on 27th Sept 2017 BRK.B was at 183 USD, today hitting 215 USD, so we have already 17,5 % MELT UP in 4 month. One aspect which was not mentioned by me is, that the inthronisation of successors for WEB an CM could have a positive impact on the stockprice. I think this is an essential subject, for an equal valuation of the whole company in comparison to other, for example MKL. Here is again the updated text from 27th Sept 2017: +++++++++++ UPDATED ++++++++++ There are aspects which could soon cause a massiv increase in BV or a massiv increase of the operating profit. I think there is a high probability to see a Melt Up concerning the stock price soon: 1) The Tax Reform DONE - reduced deferred taxes will increase the BV app. 34,4 B = app 10 % - in awareness of the repurchase program, an increase of BV shall drive the stock price immediately - FCF will increase, because operative gains will be taxed lower 2) The existing cash pile of more than 110 B - could lead to a mighty acquisition - up to 80 B in standby - maybe plus additional funds from 3G, KHC, BUD, QSR and / or leverage ... the dream of a 250 B elephant could come true .... - depending on the details, this could increase the operating profit of BRK massivly if 80 B are invested for just (!) 5 % this will increase the operating profit from 20 to 24 = 20 % increase! - could lead to an adjustment concerning the stock repurchase program, which will also drive the stockprice 3) Higher interest rates: positive for cash holders ONGOING - 1 % higher interest rates means 1 B or slightly more profit on the 100 B: that s an increase of 5 % concerning a profit of app. 20B now - Competition in insurance business will get more soft, higher prices could be realized 4) Naming successors for WEB and CM DONE In the medium or long term: 5) A broader market set back - maybe caused by TECHs / FANG: BRK could start a big wide range shopping. 1 year after the 1th Feb 2000 when the last bubble busted, BRK nearly doubled and TECHs were defeated. Will we see a DejaVu ? 6) A heavy damage for the broader insurance businesses - after which strong BRK will exit in a better position than other weaker competitors, higher prices could be realized All this factors will provide a more surging stockprice of BRK in 2018

no.. but BRK is surging...

They chose a good time for that: - soon FY 2017 figures will come out and the bookvalue will have increased 26 % in 2017..MASSIV - a bulk of cash is waiting to be invested for an elephant and / or for share buybacks... MASSIV - additional cashflow-improvement by taxreform from 2018 on ... MASSIV - interest environment is clearly improving, which is strong tailwind for BRK Well done!

I had to correct a little bit my figures: see above. But you are right, though now it looks like a happy end is approaching. Avg holding time of the shares are app. 6 years.

Yes, they sold a few, but 14.70 US$ was the avg. buying price. So total avg buying price is 12,27 US$ and total quantity 96,7 m now. BB marketprice today 14,40 US$ = already 206 m unrealized gains

Thats not totally correct, but they paid app. 14,70 US$ per Blackberry share Q Price Total Q3 10 2,0650 $49,39 $101,99 Q2 11 6,3083 $28,82 $181,81 Q3 11 3,4250 $20,33 $69,63 Q4 11 1,0000 $14,49 $14,49 Q1 12 14,0502 $14,68 $206,26 Q3 12 25,0062 $7,52 $188,05 AVG Buy 51,8547 $762,22 $14,70 i AM NOT SURE IF THIS IS CORRECT, i HAVE THE FIGURES FROM DATAROMA

Swedish Compounder , thanks for your post. Very interesting point of view on the future of BRK. Sounds great.

******* UPDATED 30.12..2017******** sorry i made a mistake, now corrected Estimation of Bookvalue for yearend 2017: Bookvalue at end of Q3 was 308,257 B, which is 124,957 $ per B share (not KHC adjusted) Q4 till yearend: Operative gains less tax (conservative estimation) = app. 4,00 B Portfolio gains (Q3 till Yearend) of estimated 12 B less 21 % def. tax = app. 9,48 B KHC adj. MV 25,32B-15,3B=10,02B less 21% def. tax = 7,92 B Taxreform: reduction of app. 86B def. taxliabilities end of Q3 (now 21% instead of 35%) = app. 34,4B leads to a bookvalue estimanted in total: 364,057 B (KHC adjusted) = 147,576 $ per B share leads to a bookvalue estimated in total: 356,137 B (not adjusted) = 144,366 $ per B share So Friday 29th Dec closing price of 198,22 $ is 34,3 % above BV (KHC adjusted).

I totally agree. In generell a good investing is to choose an asset, which has higher buying power in the future than other assets, which you didnt choose. I feel comfortable to have more than 50 % in BRK of my invested assets.

Securities are a good haven for heavy inflation. See the the result in the great depression, most intensive December 2001 in Argentine, with collaps & riots etc." Here is what the MERVAL did than: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/MERVAL#/media/File:MERVAL.png

Scorpioncapital, there is just one word for you to call it, the word is : "AMEN"

While the Omaha Vatican is preparing for the ultimate holy St. Elephants day, we shall not forget to salute the outstanding bitcoin investors with a new x-mas song "Burn Bitcoin Burn" Pope & Potus, our the dreamteam for 2018 MAGA MAGA MAGA

For sure, all mentioned figures are just estimations. The gains of the portfolio as well. We dont know what happened during Q4. Its just an estimation and in my opinion the subject taxreform shall bring us app 10 % increase of bookvalue. Nobody outside BRK is able to calculate it exactly.

We got our taxreform today: On 28th Sept, when i have opened the "Melt Up" statement, BRK was at 182$, now 198 $, so 8 % increase till now. A part of the meltup is done, but just 8 % is a joke, thats not all, we wait for: Bookvalue at end of Q3 was 308,257 B, which is 124,957 $ per B share (not KHC adjusted) Q4 till yearend, taxreform will come true now: Operative gains less tax (conservative estimation) = app. 4,00 B Portfolio gains (till today!) of more than 10 B less 21 % def. tax = app. 8,00 B KHC adj. MV 25,55B-15,3B=10,25B less 21% def. tax = 8,20 B Taxreform: reduction of app. 86B def. taxliabilities end of Q3 = app. 37,00 B leads to a bookvalue estimanted in total: 365,457 B (KHC adjusted) = 148,144 $ per B share leads to a bookvalue estimated in total: 357,257 B (not adjusted) = 144,82 $ per B share Todays 198 $ is a bargain price, just 33 % above BV (KHC adj) ! And we still wait for for the big 150B acquisition and / or the increase of the buyback level. Or maybe a onetime dividend cause of taxreform..? The Melt up just started.

Jurgis, i agree in that way, that BRK intrinsic value will increase app 10 % or a little more during next 10 years in average. Could be 15 % as well. But will not be below 7. But that doesnt mean that we will not get 25 % higher market price during next 6 month. The valuation is cheap now.

Great post Dynamic IMO there are probably two one-time events that will boost the market-price heavily in near future: 1) Tax-reform as calculated above, will drive Bookvalue BV one time 2) Big Elephant acquisition (maybe 150 B?) , which will drive Intrinsic value IV one time, or in other words the percentage the IV is above BV. WEB said that over time the gap between IV and BV will grow. That is because of the simple fact that aquisitions which belongs 100 % to BRK will drive the BRK grows by generating earnings and not by generating higher marketprices for BV. So IMO its also likely that BRK management will increase the factor of x 1.2 over BV for buybacks maybe to x 1.3 soon. The reasons why the preformance of BRK is just little better than S&P 500 in last time, is because there was no elephant and we sit on the cash. I am also more than 50 % in BRK, full invested. The function to keep cash is outsourced to BRK in my case

I voted for undervalued, because: Bookvalue at end of Q3 was 308,257 B, which is 124,957 $ per B share (not KHC adjusted) Q4 till yearend, anticipated taxreform will come true: Operative gains less tax (conservative estimation) = app. 4,00 B Portfolio gains (till today!) of more than 10 B less 20 % def. tax = app. 8,00 B KHC adj. MV 25,55B-15,3B=10,25B less 20% def. tax = 8,20 B Taxreform: reduction of app. 86B def. taxliabilities end of Q3 = app. 37,00 B leads to a bookvalue estimanted in total: 365,457 B (KHC adjusted) = 148,144 $ per B share leads to a bookvalue estimated in total: 357,257 B (not adjusted) = 144,82 $ per B share So this means Friday closing price of 196,44$ is just 32,6 % above BV (KHC adjusted) 197 $ is a bargain price, if taxreform will come true ! (even if not anticipated a big investment of 100B cash in near future it is a bargain)