Valuehalla

Here we go ! 8) Where is the elephant?

here we go again 8) :o ;D

To my mind the impact is enormous. The hurdle to sell assets is lower and reinvesting more easy. Its real! Free Cashflow from annual operating profits will be higher. thats real as well!

ValueMaven, how you calculated "almost 30B" ? If there is a taxliability of app 80 B based on 35 % corporate tax, the profit is 228,57 B (80 / 0,35) If the corporate tax goes down to 20 % the taxliability goes down to 228,57B x 0,2 = 45,71 B So the difference is 34,3 B (80-45,71B) and the BV increase by these 34,3 B. Also we have to add the latest developments in the portfolio, which we dont know jet, we just can estimate them. So I think its minimum 35 to 40 B to add to BV. See BRK 3Q 2017 page 4 "Ïncome taxes, principally deferred" is 86,559 B: http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/qtrly/3rdqtr17.pdf

Here is a non-subscriber link of this article, but I think some figures are not correct: https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-tax-reforms-big-winner-1512076594?mod=bol-social-fb The effect of reduced deferred tax is, that we have to add 35 to 40 B to the bookvalue, not just 27B. Anyone has an opinion on it ?

I expect, that the positive effect of the taxreform on the BRK protfolio is immediatly leading to gains in the stockprice: If corporate tax is 20 % instead of 35 % this means app 35 to 40B to add on the bookvalue: End of 2017 Q3 bookvalue was 308,257. So it means app 12 % to add. This week - 27th Nov to 1st Dec - we got already an increase of 6,4 % in stockprice after it came out that taxreform got more likely. Furthermore BRK will get more flexible in investing: the hurdle to sell an "old position" with big deferred taxes inside, is lower now; reinvest in a new project gets more easy. The total effects are enormous in my opinion. Here is an article from Jan 2017 who discussed BRK and taxreform: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4037907-berkshire-hathaway-potential-95-billion-book-value-growth-year-end-2017

I like call attention to an article, published in Jan 2017 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4037907-berkshire-hathaway-potential-95-billion-book-value-growth-year-end-2017 If taxreform pass with 20 % corporate tax, we will get app 35 to 40 B in deffered tax reduction, which will increase the BV (End of Q3 2017 308,257 B) by app 12 %

Our very interesting and here since 9th June bespoken phenomenon that - out of the blue, from one second to another - theTECHs / FANG turn into minus, by 3,4 or 5 % and in same moment BRK goes up happend again yesterday. This happen already on a few days now, without being continued as a sustainable development. Daywatcher-report: Eva ate the apple on: 1st Feb 2000, with sustainable development, the TECH bubble burst, BRK surged And now: 9th June 2017 12th June 2017 25th Sept 2017 29th Nov 2017 The burst is just behind the corner, waiting to show up. Trust in the faithfull clerus, stand behind the Omaha vatican, which is preparing big celebrations for St. Elephants day. Dont be weak, dont bite the apples like Bitcoin FANG etc

Bishop John, I have heard the Omaha-Vatican is preparing for St. Elephants day. Further Washington conclave on Thursday night, is expected to prepare a big present for the faithfull clericus all over the globe. Lets pray on our knees and watch the white smoke rise

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-29/fang-s-60-billion-wipeout-is-most-in-one-day-since-facebook-ipo

Here we go again...

Concerning BRK is the best cash: The argument to keep a part in cash because BRK tanked 50 % in 2008 / 09 is not logical: Because that anticipates, that you know in advance 1) a big crisis is ahead, 2) BRK is tanking in the crisis 3) further you have to know how deep the price will go and 4) on what exat day it is the lowest price. On this day you have to invest the cash. Further lets see the 2 cases: 1) Full invested on 14. Sept 2008 (highest point before Lehmann) in BRK with 1 A share 147.000 $ Today you have 278.700 $ Multiple 1,896 2) You are 75 % in BRK and 25 % in cash on 14. Sept. 2008 This means 110.250$ in BRK and in Cash 36.750 Than you are the goodblessed investment super-star and you are so smart and you find the exact point, the absolute low of BRK, on 1 Mach 2009 with 73.195 $ for a A share, and you invest your cash in it: mutilple to today 3,808 The result is if it turns out 110.250 $ BRK x 1,896 gets 209.025 $ today 36.750 $ x 3,808 gets 139.930 $ today TOTAL 348.955 $ ............. thats a 25 % better result compared to be all time full invested If it does not trun out, because there is no lehman you have today 209.025$ in BRK and still 36.750 $ cash = 245.775 $ ........... thats a 13,3 % gap missing, compared to be all time full invested I would always choose to be full invested, because there is no method / compass to fix the lowest point in a crisis on the exact day. I would never sell my house or a part of it and keep the cash because i think that there is a crisis ahead and I will be able to buy my house back for a cheaper price. think about it

Folks dont forget: someone who is now 100 % in BRK means: app 25 % in cash and app. 75 % in excellent companies. No need to keep cash by yourself, WEB and his team are investors, who will do the right actions. BRK is the best cash you can keep.

Avg price of 1 oz Gold in March 1981 498,76 US$ Today: 1273,50 US$ Price of A share Berkshire Hathaway 1st March 1981 520,00 US$ Today: 278.010,00 US$ Whatever i tried, i could just find a price of gold: Bookvalue (BV) and Intrinsic Value (IV) for gold still missing. Wanted! Dead or alive! If you will find these two, call the Sheriffs office in Omaha immediatly.

+++++++++++ UPDATED ++++++++++ There are aspects which could soon cause a massiv increase in BV or a massiv increase of the operating profit. I think there is a high probability to see a Melt Up concerning the stock price soon: 1) The Tax Reform - reduced deferred taxes will increase the BV app. 10 % - in awareness of the repurchase program, an increase of BV shall drive the stock price immediately - FCF will increase, because operative gains will be taxed lower 2) The existing cash pile of more than 100 B - could lead to a mighty acquisition - up to 80 B in standby - maybe plus additional funds from 3G, KHC, BUD, QSR and / or leverage ... the dream of a 250 B elephant could come true .... - depending on the details, this could increase the operating profit of BRK massivly if 80 B are invested for just (!) 5 % this will increase the operating profit from 20 to 24 = 20 % increase! - could lead to an adjustment concerning the stock repurchase program, which will also drive the stockprice 3) Higher interest rates - 1 % higher interest rates means 1 B or slightly more profit on the 100 B: that s an increase of 5 % concerning a profit of app. 20B now - Competition in insurance business will get more soft, higher prices could be realized In the medium or long term: 4) A broader market set back - maybe caused by TECHs / FANG: BRK could start a big wide range shopping. 1 year after the 1th Feb 2000 when the last bubble busted, BRK nearly doubled and TECHs were defeated. Will we see a DejaVu ? 5) A heavy damage for the broader insurance businesses - after which strong BRK will exit in a better position than other weaker competitors, higher prices could be realized ;D In case of a lucky quarter we can see a melt up of 40 % till end of 2017. (Taxreform + Acquisition) ;D

+++++++++++ UPDATED ++++++++++ There are aspects which could soon cause a massiv increase in BV or a massiv increase of the operating profit. I think there is a high probability to see a Melt Up concerning the stock price soon: 1) The Tax Reform - reduced deferred taxes will increase the BV app. 10 % - FCF will increase, because operative gains will be taxed lower 2) The existing cash pile of more than 100 B - could lead to a mighty acquisition - up to 80 B inside BRK on standby - maybe plus additional funds from 3G, KHC, BUD, QSR and / or leverage ... the dream of a 250 B elephant could come true .... - depending on the details, this could increase the operating profit of BRK massivly: if 80 B are invested for just (!) 5 % this will increase the operating profit from 20 to 24 = 20 % increase! - if not invested, could lead to an adjustment concerning the stock repurchase program, which will also drive the stockprice 3) Higher interest rates - 1 % higher interest rates means 1 B or even slightly more profit, that is a 5 % increase of the profit (now app. 20B) - Competition in insurance business will get more soft In the medium or long term: 4) A broader market set back - maybe caused by TECHs / FANG: BRK could start a big wide range shopping 5) A heavy damage for the broader insurance businesses - after which strong BRK will exit in a better position than other weaker competitors ;D In case of a lucky quarter we can see a melt up of 40 % till end of 2017. (Taxreform + Acquisition) ;D

3rd Quarter is done. 30.6.2017 BV per B-share was 121,877 US$ Price B-share was 169,37 US$ MarketCap app 417,6 B BV 300,659 B 3 month till today 30.9.2017: Estimated Operative Gains: 5 B less tax = app 3,5 B Estimated Gains Portfolio: 3,2 B less deferred tax = app 2,3 B results in: BV =306,46 B BV B-share = 124,23 US$ KHC adjustment: 25,253 B (marketvalue of the KHC position today) - 15,3B (BV KHC) = + 9,953 B results in: BV = 316,413 B BV B-share = 128,265 US$ B-share closing price on Friday 29th Sept. was 183,32 US$, so we are 1,429 above KHC adjusted BV and 1,476 above published BV by BRK (The BAC exercise is included in the figures above) IMO the quarter was a more weaker quarter, cause i expect in avg an increase of BV per B share of 1,00 US$ per month in 2017. But there is huge upside potential, cause of taxreform & cash pile. See further my other post from today above.

There are aspects which could soon cause a massiv increase in BV or a massiv increase of the operating profit. I think there is a high probability to see a Melt Up concerning the stock price soon: 1) The Tax Reform - reduced deferred taxes will increase the BV app. 10 % - FCF will increase, because operative gains will be taxed lower 2) The existing cash pile of more than 100 B - could lead to a mighty acquisition - up to 80 B in standby - maybe plus additional funds from 3G, KHC, BUD, QSR and / or leverage ... the dream of a 250 B elephant could come true .... - depending on the details, this could increase the operating profit of BRK massivly if 80 B are invested for just (!) 5 % this will increase the operating profit from 20 to 24 = 20 % increase! - could lead to an adjustment concerning the stock repurchase program, which will also drive the stockprice In the medium or long term: 3) A broader market set back - maybe caused by TECHs / FANG: BRK could start a big wide range shopping 4) A heavy damage for the broader insurance businesses - after which strong BRK will exit in a better position than other weaker competitors ;D In case of a lucky quarter we can see a melt up of 40 % till end of 2017. (Taxreform + Acquisition) ;D

I think its an interesting phenomenon that - out of the blue, from one second to another - theTECHs / FANG turn into minus, by 3,4 or 5 % and in same moment BRK goes up. This happen already on a few days now, without being continued as a sustainable development. Daywatcher-report: Eva ate the apple on: 1st Feb 2000, with sustainable development, the TECH bubble burst, BRK surged And now: 9th June 2017 12th June 2017 25th Sept 2017 The burst is just behind the corner, waiting to show up.

KHC

IMO there are aspects which could soon cause a heavy Melt Up for Berkshire: 1) The Tax Reform - reduced deferred taxes will increase the BV app. 10 % - FCF will increase, because operative gains will be taxed lower 2) The existing cash pile of more than 100 B - could lead to a mighty acquisition - up to 80 B - maybe plus additional funds from 3G, KHC, BUD, QSR - depending on the details, this could increase the operating profit of BRK if 80 B are invested for just (!) 5 % this will increase the operating profit from 20 to 24 = 20 % increase! - could lead to an adjustment concerning the stock repurchase program 3) A broader market set back - maybe caused by TECHs / FANG: BRK could start a big wide range shopping 4) A heavy damage for the broader insurance businesses - after which strong BRK will exit in a better position than other weaker competitors In case of a lucky quarter we can see a melt up of 40 % till end of 2017. (Taxreform + Acquisition)

Here we try to go again.. Mr. Market take the hammer pls

Cameron i downloaded you latest updated file. Could you maybe post a keypoint-list with your main conclusions which result in your opinion from your statistic.

THX for the great work Cameron. To my mind its just important what are the future expectations concerning earnings & FCF of these companies. Than you can think about the relations to the current stockprice/marketcap and than make a decision, if a buy is a good investment in your individual situation or not. One will love 5 % return, another wants to see minimum 15 % etc.. The past is not relevant. In total, as I remember, WEB said in the latest interviews, that pricevaluations in avg of the S&P 500 are now mediocre in historic comparisons. I have the following historical figures to contribute as mosaic pieces: - The average PE ratio of S&P 500 from 1936 to 2015 is 16.9 - From 1965 to 2016 the S&P 500 gained in avg 9.7 % incl. dividends - Buying power of 0.13 US$ in 1965 is like 1 US$ in 2015, which is an inflation of 4,4 % p.a. avg 50 years If one of my figures is not correct, let me know.

Thanks for remembering me.. in the US$ i trust. He was, he is, he will be. The Dollar will rock, the Euro will suck. Check out traget2 figures.