Paarslaars

Or any of the tech stocks in 2022... Meta at 10x earnings apparantly wasn't cheap enough for buffet?

Well he is underperforming the S&P over the past 20 years... not to bash the goat or anything.

Well it's not just Blake is it? Buffet seems to be making the same mistake... sitting on >200B in cash for 10 years, now up to 400B.

I think Blake might be making up new ones here. Yeah the book has lots of fillers, you could just as easily ask AI for a summary. I enjoy reading fillers though, nothing better than enjoy a quite afternoon in sunny weather with an easy to read book that makes me self-reflect.

That in my opinion is the difference between a bubble and a boom.

The Big Print: interesting history on monetary policy for someone not old enough to have actively experienced those times. How Not To Invest: unbelievable how many of these things I slowly find myself doing more... really have to get back to investing long term and not looking at market prices every day.

Well that is why I agree with the first two... money & data center capacity are the bottlenecks to AI progress. It's not like we are reaching physical or technological limits. There is no wall to hit on that front.

1 & 2 are valid points. Not concerned with 3, this is scaling exponentially...

Yeah but this time there are earnings though...

Gold run up is due to China buying and retail follow-up. Will rotate to BTC as it always does.

That is because the US debt jumped from 5.7T to 38T during that period.

Alright, people are screaming semi or memory is a bubble but MU, largest western memory company, is trading at 6-8x forward PE. It's not a bubble when earnings are exploding... provided these estimations are realistic and sustainable.

Basically he is claiming that a shitload of the current forward earnings are based on upscaling datacenters, but if these are substantially behind schedule then all of these expected orders will be postponed. And the current rally in semi is mainly based on forward earnings..

Interesting read on the AI supply chain bottlenecks.

Bought some NOW yesterday, just in time it seems for Trump to start pumping my bags.

There is bubble like behavior in the AI valuestream, lots of stocks ging vertical, especially photonics/CPO stocks. Don't think memory is in a bubble. Remember not to mistake overvaluation with a bubble.

Added 50% to my nintendo position today. Hurts a bit to say but had to sell FFH for it...

Bought small positions in WOLF, 4092, and 6315 over de past days. All plays on potential AI bottlenecks.

I think we're more in '97/'98, this thing still has some runway. Big difference between dotcom & AI is that a lot of these companies in AI value chain actually have the revenue to back up the valuation.

AI is the main driver now, doesn't seem to be stopping anytime soon if you see the capex that is being thrown at it. I believe memory, energy and potentially photonics will benefit from this. I chose MU because: I cannot buy the Korean stocks it seems DRAM ETF is ideal but due to a lack op EID, I cannot buy that either in my country. For some reason though, I can buy calls on DRAM MU is one of the cheapest options right now, trading at 6x forward earnings. Must say that forward earnings estimation has gone up a lot last months, we are now entering a phase where execution on this is key.

Joined the AI crowd with a position in MU and some calls in DRAM. Also started a position in Amazon.

When you buy index funds yes. Individual stock charts look a bit different.

Quite often there will be a better time than after a rally to pick up these stocks. Then again that is what many said about Nvidia, if memory demands and forward earnings are correct, some of these large players are currently trading at like 5x forward earnings... not sure if they're going to get much cheaper unless outlook changes.

Interesting discussion. While I don't have my house paid off, I really don't mind having a 500k loan at 2.42%... However considering the loan, I am aiming for 1M, that would make 5% my living expenses. Without the loan I could indeed live off 0.5M. I don't need much, I like playing sports, good BBQ and the occasional good quality beer/rum. Any more than this brings me little additional joy... That said, no chance I actually fully retire, I will just switch to making (less) money with things I love rather than doing a well paid middle management position. I do intend to leave each of my kids 0.5M. The youngest for a house, the oldest for care (she is mentally disabled amongst other things and will need to live in a suitable facility once her mother and I are gone). Hopefully plenty of time for that though. For me FU money is money where you can buy your way out of most of life's annoyances. No need to work, take public transportation, be anywhere I don't want to be (unless it is for the kids), etc... People often ask me empathically "it must be hard to raise a child with such a serious disability?". I usually tell them it is incredibly hard for people who don't have money, fortunately I am not one of them so it's fine.