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HalfMeasure

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  1. Agree with this line of thinking. Building on this, if a REIT's underlying assets have supply constraints and demographics on their side (hypothetical for now), and thus likely has inflation protection built in, isn't it more comparable to a TIPS-type security vs. a nominal bond? Further, if the REIT has a well termed out cap structure with reasonable leverage, they're effectively short nominal bonds while their underlying that they are long behave more like inflation-protected bonds. It's a very attractive structure with the right assets, cap structure, and management.
  2. No position here, but doesn't it seem like a 5-10% rent decline across the portfolio is already priced in at today's levels? Does anyone have a good sense for what kind of cap rate these assets would transact at in normal times on a stable rent base?
  3. What pushed you to sell DIS? Hi HM - I still like DIS in the long term, but prefer ALX and WFC for now. I bought DIS between $85 and $80 and would likely start buying again under $90. Also, added to WFC and started a new position in DOW. Thanks Lance Got it, that makes sense. WFC has been left for dead.
  4. What's your view here? Looks interesting.
  5. I also added GD and TRV and restarted CMCSA and ORI. Strange disconnect in the Market, some stocks go to the moon, others into the doghouse. It seems there is no tolerance for owning things that "aren't working" (e.g. anything going down is broken), and no tolerance for not owning things that "are working" (e.g. FOMO). Everything feels very momentum driven, whether business/fundamental momentum (businesses doing well must certainly keep doing well) or merely price/sentiment momentum (stocks going up must certainly continue to go up).
  6. Stocks are great replacement for low-yield bonds, as long as they don't go down :-X Packer, i agree theoretically with what you are saying. I think one of the drivers of the increase in stock prices the past few weeks is money starting to shift from bonds to equities. Institutions holding bonds are saying why would i hold a bond paying less than 1% interest? Blackrock talked about this shift happening on its quarterly conference call. The problem with this strategy is stocks are not bond substitutes (even utility type stocks). If we get a severe recession/deflation lots of pension funds/insurance companies could be in deep shit. Yes, this is low probability. I wonder if asset managers will be communicating this risk to their members?
  7. Anyone seeing any interesting opportunities in the REIT space they're willing to share?
  8. What's your view on how the big banks perform amidst the current and prospective rate environment?
  9. What are your thoughts here? Basically the same thing as set forth here: http://yetanothervalueblog.com/ (including concerns about controlling shareholder...) But I like the funnel in for content with Simon and Shuster and the "selling of the picks and shovels to the miners" kind of strategy for streaming wars (maybe even the cost-plus producing shows they don't own isn't anathema...it works ok for defense contractors); also the single product licensing function for the company seems like a great move; they have historically totally blown it with Star Trek (as compared with Wars) imop. It's obviously cheap AF, even before any "synergies" (assuming they are soon to be destroyed). Seems like there's maybe a catalyst with Bakish talking about re-upping their buyback authorization. I also kind of like Bakish (having watched maybe ten interviews with him) he doesn't seem like a smooth bullshitter, Hollywood ceo. Thanks, you bring up good points - I was surprised John Malone was so negative on both the "arms dealer" strategy with content (which has worked well for the record labels when it comes to streaming) and the cost-plus arrangements (especially where rights revert back after an initial period), as well your point on product licensing is an interesting one that I haven't seen discussed much elsewhere.
  10. Great point - my cash balance is high however the primary drivers aren't necessarily a call on market valuation but rather i) the fact a large portion of the money was saved recently and ii) some is earmarked in case we want to buy a property at some point in the next few years. Earlier in your investing life cycle, a large % also isn't a large absolute $ amount. >50% cash at a <$25,000 net worth would seem to me to be responsible, but >50% cash at a $10M+ net worth might not be unless there was a specific reason.
  11. Maybe Im just drinking the kool aid but Ill let everyone else worry too. I dont think at this point the worry should be whether or not this all goes through but on ultimate return at these prices. Second on my list of worries is just how long it will take to ultimately realize the final upside return and that is only because crazy or not Im contemplating buying more on margin. My biggest prfd holding is trading at 47% of par. In bedded in final return could be a sweetener conversion to common, dividend turn on? (unlikely). At a 7% margin rate borrowing at these prices and holding for a year you would break even on a 50% of par final pay out. So what is coming up? 1. Treasury plan by end of June to end conservatorship? 2. FNMA proposed capital rules by July-Augustish? 3. Amendment by Calabria by fall with treasury to stop sweep by end of year? 4. IPO/recap starting in winter spring of 2020. So 1 year from now you need 50% of par to break even buying on margin at 7% with FNMAH. Ill take that bet all day this point. :) As many has mentioned Calabraia has diarrhea of the mouth and mentioned conversion to common and do prfd holders get par. He also mentions he is very confident he can get to an agreement with Mnuchin. Well of course like Otting said everyone has signed off remember? He speaks and I listen. I would think the NWS needs to end and capital rules need to be established first before ending conservatorship.
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