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DooDiligence

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Everything posted by DooDiligence

  1. Some of my lower cost Altria shares for a small gain. Still believe CEO & BOD are idiots.
  2. And I guess we're not even at the end of the beginning. If you have an interest in the Lloyd's insurance platform and if you have a few minutes to spare: Lloyd's has made progress but has been incredibly slow in integrating new technology. Before dismissing the value of the first video, helpful to remember that the 2019 video already looks and sounds out-dated when AI enters the picture. Resistance to change at Lloyd's may be related to resilience as they sort of defined the risk shedder-taker relationship a while back and would risk affirming that they will continue to be around for the foreseeable future. One thought that came to mind on the 1st vidi was unrelated to insurance. Coffee shops seem to be pretty durable. - Pricing risk must have been extremely difficult back in the day. Did they have usable data or were they just winging it? Seems like a very complicated business with significant barriers to entry.
  3. Reducing the cost of float: https://www.reinsurancene.ws/berkshire-hathaway-guard-partners-with-ai-platform-planck/ https://www.planckdata.com/solutions
  4. My job offshore was similar. 364 days, 23 hours & 57 minutes of total boredom, punctuated by 3 minutes of sheer terror.
  5. shalab, I do not use Book Value much if at all. To me a business is worth some multiple of owners earnings. The multiple is based on how fast and how long owners earnings grow which is a function of its competitive advantage and total addressable market size. If I cannot estimate owner earnings, it is an automatic pass for me. I find it very difficult to wrap by head around valuation without owners earnings. If I use book value, it is mostly as a shortcut once I estimated the IV using the owners earnings x multiple. So if I estimate BRK IV to be $200 and book value is $160, to keep track of it more easily in my head, I use the derived value of 1.25 BV multiple. Vinod Book value becomes an analog?
  6. And here's today's press release. Below are a couple of excerpts: I really like this in principle & we obviously need some altruism in healthcare (hell, everywhere for that matter.) Just to play devils advocate though, how will patients feel about this in our "have it your way" society? I can almost hear the neo-con spin. "They're won't let your Grandma have her meds & are trying to kill her" ---- I do believe that initiatives like this could force players / payers to act on a value based framework. How well it will be received initially (by many) seems obvious too. CVS over the next 2 decades? I understand all the bearish arguments but don't see an existential threat to them.
  7. Did Malone join the BOD @ BRK? ;D
  8. It's almost as if he's switched to my investment process :o
  9. Would someone please move this dumpster fire into the politics section so I can ignore the trolls.
  10. https://www.the-american-interest.com/2019/02/25/bigger-fewer-riskier-the-evolution-of-u-s-banking-since-1950/ Reference suggested by someone who knows nothing and who also feels that the biggest financial innovation is the ATM because i don't mind the heat. It's (almost) always sunny in NW Florida ;D for those who enjoy heat, and I do. I reference the following Tweet to explain my aberrant behavior.
  11. Knee jerk reaction from someone who doesn't know squat about banks but has a fair understanding of what happened in 2008. I'd hate to see world banking further consolidated.
  12. Aha, AZO comes to mind too.
  13. Very nice, thanks.
  14. Outstanding analysis (the parts I'm able to comprehend) & the writing style is off the charts. I think we may also be in tune with regards to musical tastes. Here's to hoping Berkshires equity price falls off a cliff on Monday!
  15. Fingers crossed. I sold ABC & SFTBY & have written "Warren, Chuck, Ted, Todd, Ajit & Greg" on the cash.
  16. Just for fun, http://weeklyworldnews.com/headlines/53230/china-buys-grand-canyon/ ;D
  17. That would be a great way to ensure we never have another civil war :o
  18. I knew you'd bite if I dangled enough bait.
  19. I'm in favor of selling California to Mexico. I'm in favor of spinning off a bunch of states. The US should break into 4. The 2 coasts can each be the liberal leftist socialists paradises that they want to be. The middle can go to the conservatives. And give the libertarians New Hampshire. The notion that 320+ million people spread over most of one of the Earth's continents will all have the same culture and want the same type of government is absurd. It’s Time For The United States To Divorce Before Things Get Dangerous Heyyy, what about Florida?
  20. There is a bunch of minesweeper apps on the apple app store. ;D If there's one that uncovers 7th chords in all positions & qualities, I'd play it. Truly a hazardous minefield.
  21. These depictions are interesting but like the mandated publicity on cigarette packs (black lungs, photos of people on chemo etc), the sensational aspect wears off quite rapidly, especially if you're addicted to nicotine. This is truly a bipartisan problem/issue and here's a graphic link with relevant info also about military spending. It seems to me that a combination of expense reduction and revenue increase is doable. https://www.debtconsolidation.com/us-debt-presidents/ With all the talk about decline (Mr. Munger etc), it's noteworthy to remember that it's not the persistently high military expenditures that broke Pax Romana, it's when the Romans' intrinsic capacity to generate revenue declined and when they had to outsource protection at the borders of the Empire where the Barbarians were waiting at the door. That's a scary scenario.
  22. I'm interested in hearing comments regarding this Twitter accusation about DJCO & poor accounting controls. One poster replied, "You’re making a lot of statements about DJCO. What exactly are you saying? Accounting is not good? There’s something wrong? Or that you just don’t like the people running it?"
  23. Oh, that is such a brilliant comment, and hits at the crux of the problem in America. So many people, (gov workers, etc) - want something for NOTHING. Where did the idea of sacrifice and work ethic go? With government - cutting spending has to happen - I live in Illinois - and there is going to be a tax revolt here one of this days. Real estate taxes are out of control, Chicago city taxes are out of control and city workers don't actually work. Pensions, etc - they all want to retire at 50 with full pension/benefits and get a second job. It's a ticking time bomb - raising taxes will be the route they take, until the public revolts and forces spending down. I hope I am out of here by then...Florida, here I come! You can buy a really nice waterfront home in NWFL for around $500K - 700K. The higher end gets you a property with more elevation & lower flood premiums. Cost of living is low. No state income tax. Beautiful beaches. Tolerable winters.
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