Gregmal

Blue Orca, one fo the better activist short sellers I follow put out the follow report this past week. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5a81b554be42d6b09e19fc09/t/5e3b7688fe4a570a61057022/1580955280455/Blue+Orca+is+Short+China+Medical+System+Holdings+Ltd+%28HK+867%29.pdf Something rarely seen, CMS, maybe a half hour after the report hit, requested a trading halt to their stock, which has remained in effect the past couple days. Today, they released this. http://www.cms.net.cn/kangzhe/PicNew/ImgStocks/2020-02-07/80cb3ef1-1f54-4915-bc1a-35c713abc963.pdf Stock should open for trading next week. Last few Blue Orca pieces have been pretty lethal. Hong Kong is still kind of a tricky place for investors, and thus these type of situations seem a little easier to find than here is the states.

sold last of my nvta. thanks akram

Gregmal - thanks for MSGN idea - out at $17.05 Shrinking share count very compelling. Nice idea. Hope to get another shot. Cheers. Good when people make money. Took some off around there yesterday as well. Its a boring company but should grind out some value, especially if ones trades it. $14-$15 is just too cheap.

Ditto. 1.3x book is not a bad price for Berk esp. as it's a partially "defensive" stock with the cash and traditional businesses, and also exposed to market upside thru Apple Indeed, on a relative basis its a lot more exciting to me here at 228 than it was at 21x.xx prior to the market going apeshit. You've probably got some favorable news flow heading into the AGM as well.

Added a little more BRK

shorted some 867.hk at the open

It was actually a very easy judgment call with the market, I am just surprised the masses caught on as soon as they did and aw shucks wouldn't you know it we're back at the highs. But regarding the virus, it was really simple. The virus is more or less contained to China. China will suppress any major issue. The only way this gets out badly, is if there is some really, really, really bad uncontrollable Resident Evil style situation. Super unlikely. And with that contained and nothing of news or material purpose going on anywhere else in the world; back up we go! It was rather predictable.

See what most people dont realize is that the onus falls on you the individual, not the news outlet or "propaganda machine". Example, a major headline front page on CNN's website. "Marco Rubio's mind-blowing explanation of his impeachment vote" So lets look at this here. First, why, out of all the senators and congressmen, is Rubio targeted? (answer, probably because of his party affiliation) Now lets look at the choice of words. mind-blowing, is deliberately used to frame the subsequent info as abnormal, extraordinary, and defying logic. attach mind blowing to impeachment vote, with the above framing, casts a negative and dubious connotation to what his vote was(which was a NO). So now, whats happened here is that an event occurred. But what occurred, Senate voted(or Rubio voted), was not what was reported, but rather, they've slanted the presentation to 1) insinuate that Rubio is crazy, and that 2) his vote is ridiculous They've surrounded everything with a bias, and the intent is to brainwash the reader into thinking that such behavior is so "ridiculous", that they give no thought to the original issue, being that, "the senate voted" and are much less likely to form their own opinion. Further, if I wanted to be extraordinary like CNN, I could easily make the case that CNN and all of its employees deserve to be treated no different than the KKK. After all, both organizations peddle narratives that encroach upon the constitutional rights and the pursuit of happiness with the respect to anyone whom disagrees with them. Both, I am sure can theoretically have "some good people" but the overall message is not one of unity but divisiveness and hatred of those whom are different. In fact, CNN regularly promotes propaganda that undermines and attacks the President of the United States, and regularly roots against American interests in order to further push their agenda. See how easy(and dangerous) all this shit is?

The whole Russian propaganda thing is clear bullshit. It’s no different at all than the Trump “fake news” cries. It’s meant to train people like dogs to immediately write off anything that doesn’t vibe with said parties agenda. Those that scream either, do so arrogantly assuming the recipients are idiots and not capable of reading and deciphering, responsibly and in a manner capable of figuring out the truth, for themselves.

Its not a Zerohedge report. Its in multiple places. https://www.yahoo.com/news/cocktail-flu-hiv-drugs-appears-124753996.html

100% agree. Its funny, everyone looses their shit if politics come up ever because "its an investing board". Here, incidentally, a situation with great investment ramifications? And everyone is indulging in fear mongering and running around like chickens with their heads cut off. The market tanked 600 points Friday in fear of the weekend. This weekend? A whopping total of 1 new case in the US and 1 death outside of China(even though the person dying was Chinese, from Wuhan). Its crazy people still believe much of whats put out there by the media. Personally, I'd expect futures open up a couple hundred points. But based on hysteria maybe we'll get lucky and see more of a sell off. Based on "to date" knee jerks, 1 confirmed US case and that "1 maybe" in NYC probably equates to another -500 day..

Lost amongst the pandemonium Friday after the close PICO announced and expansion of its share repurchase program. PICO is a bad investment and basically a slow liquidation play at best, but they've been remarkably consistent repurchasing their shares at prices averaging mid 10s and even 11s. With firepower authorization equal to basically half of the current market cap and ~$60M remaining plus a lot of bag holders with no interest selling shares around here, buying at/around/under $10 seems like a pretty reasonable and safe trade, even if its only for a few percent back to this mid 10s. This has no correlation to all the current hysteria either, and really only relies on the continuance of the status quo in Vidlers core markets. http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/4575180

I dont buy Cramer's argument. It is valid, but meaningless IMO. Wall Street is filled with money obsessed whores. Add to the list the plethora of underperforming hedge funds and money managers who preach a "value investing" style. If there's money to be made in energy, they'll go there. Just look at the activity on sites like this with the tobacco stocks and lately even stuff like XOM. While its admirable on the surface(but also more a manipulative look at me Im woke or whatever move by the pension funds and such) it won't hold. If its green, buyers will go there. If, over the long run, pension fund managers underperform they'll face pressure and ultimately start letting the things that matter dictate their investments. Its just easy right now when you can buy Tesla and claim to be a socially responsible fund.

This was actually a good read and probably bolstered my belief in what I wrote earlier. Lets see what the confirmed numbers look like in a week or maybe a month. But so far, you have barely 100 total cases outside of China and 0 deaths. You also have a death count that is bolstered by people with other conditions and complications, which is always important to consider as well, even with the common flu.

I was reviewing some information with a couple folks for a portfolio company today, and of distinct notation was a recent corporate action taken. We were trying to pin down where this came from. After a bit of analysis, the read was that the move was made out of weakness rather than strength. This was determined because the CEO is a bit of a character, and a boastful, boisterous cheerleader. It was concluded that his reasoning for action had to be to fill a need that was expected to be filled elsewhere, but didn't materialize. How did we know? Because if it had, he would have announced it a few minutes later.... Same sort of deducing can be used here. I dont doubt all of the ground work details, and I sympathize with those effected, but am of the belief that what we are hearing about and its impacts on us here in the US of A, are entirely blown out of proportion and unwarranted. Yes, China may play games with their news outlets and censor people. But here? Fear sells and these news outlets are propaganda peddlers and this virus is a money maker for them in regards to clicks and page views. Its is and will be drummed up as much as humanly possible. Not to be callous, but I'll be concerned when I can no longer count on one hand the number of deaths in one specific state. Or maybe collectively hear about a few dozen total deaths in America.

There will certainly be no shortage of Chinesepeoplephobia in America now....

got a little more pcyo

Its actually quite funny. Multiple days ago now, I accidentally started a thread on Simon Property Group in the General Discussion section. It still hasn't been moved to the correct place. Put up a thread with even a mouse fart sized hint of politics, Sanjeev will be here to move it in like 27.3333 minutes flat. And fwiw, ILMN had earnings which is why it was down.

Indeed all true. One interesting theory Ive heard is the wealth gap explanation. The same premise regarding how the top 1% keep getting richer at the expense of the middle class while the poor stay stuck....in business terms, the wealth gap involves a select few companies basically controlling the avenues to resources the rest of business world depends upon, and just slowly erodes middle and lower class companies. I dont think theres a correct answer, but its just odd seeing so many once respected companies looking like shit and thinking, what does the market do to these companies if we see things turn south?

MSGN a hair under 15 and DD at 52.7

Ive been chatting with a lot of folks and most of the time the lens of investment is one of a value investor. I continue to be amazed by the abundance of traditional businesses that are "cheap" but troubled. Look at some of the threads here for example. DD, AMC, XOM, GHC, certain types of real estate...dont get hung up on the specific examples. The contrast between these businesses and the ones RuleNumberOne likes to talk about is incredible. But beyond that, it got me thinking. All the classic value investors and books about such things talk about cycles and buying when things are out of favor and then achieving these heroic returns from being a contrarian. The TBTF trade was really the last classic example of this that worked. But otherwise, everything now, for at least the last half decade if not a bit longer, IMO has just stayed out of favor and continued its decline. Almost as if cycles dont exist and just transitioned to permanent secular declines. Commodity names have sucked forever now. Miners too. Many different types of real estate. Financials, Insurance, media, healthcare, energy, auto....quite a lot here. In a market many describe as in a bubble, and a few percent off all time highs, the list of traditional businesses at shitty valuations and often described by rational investors as having "too much hair" is incredible. So I guess the million dollar question is, do these ever become cyclical again(IE as in trade at premium valuations), or have we for some reason, maybe Fed induced, caused there to be a hitch in the way investments and businesses are valued? More or less rendering these things permanently challenged and essentially just part of some which ice cube can melt the slowest contest?

Sold all(but a minor tracking position) the remainder of my BX.

The only thing that can justify the price movements is perhaps concluding that the market is now starting to realize rates will be forever low and thus rerating equities accordingly. Of course, this still kind of begs the question, do equities need to be expensive just because bonds are astronomically priced? The answer is probably yes, and its a powerful thing having pretty much all governments being buyers of debt to infinity. I guess as investors, we can only hope they never stop.

Did some repositioning. Finished exiting GM stock and transferred into slightly larger share equivalent $30 calls. Closed my GM puts as well. Its either gonna go or its not. My stop loss built in with the strike, and after about a half decade, if it doesnt perk up Im fine having been wrong and calling it a day here. Exited 30% of BX and replaced it with BRK.B and SPG. Reduced some margin in the process.

I've leased maybe a half dozen offices in varying locations from NYC to the suburbs of it, over the past decade. Never have I shared space and cant imagine how for some businesses, this type of layout isn't a complete nonstarter from the get go. But, I do think it is indicative of some companies last ditch efforts to attract the millennial crowd and herd them into an office. But it will likely be short lived. Which leads me to my conclusion, that in the world of RE investment, certain things are safe, and certain ones arent(duh). Residential to me cant be virtualized(again, duh). Retail as we've discussed ad naseum, is being forced to change and can be very much at risk. Industrial, I think is the second safest space after residential. But IMO, what is most at risk, way more so than even retail, is office space. Theres just no need for it on a lot of levels and when you combine this with the future generations and their "lets explore bc I have ADD" mentality, companies will continue to shift out of traditional office. Much like with retail, sure you will still have some big trophy office campuses. But the days of just throwing up cubicles and guiding thousands of employees, like cattle, into an office, is not the way of the future. WeWorks "idea" wasn't revolutionary, it was reactionary.