Ice77

Buena suerte. Lots of air still in this bubble. And that’s how we make the market. Gracias amigo

First the early adopters/punters got in, then the uber rich (Thiel, Winklevii, Chamath), then the corporations (Apple, Tesla...) and next will be the central banks and then it goes mainstream with 4th generation cryptos. Don't own any but it's not hard to envisage BTC going to $500K-1m. Not enough around for everyone (88% odd have been mined already IIRC)

PTON - starting a position here in mid 90s after the steep fall. $4b fw revenue run rate, 40% margin profile, $28b MCap so not as bad a multiple now. Demand >> Supply, able to sell everything they make. Lots of optionality around accessories, apparel and subscriptions (as the blades) with the bike/tread just like a razor (and they make margins on the razor too). Global product and not specific to just the US. It's becoming part of culture now - people falling in love with their digital avatar instructor (some articles around that), AirBnBs and Hotels put them as a perk on their premises. Pay later business models making them affordable for mass consumers (Affirm is the largest source of biz). People using them for 20+ days a month shows the stickiness. Like the risk/reward.

For cash equivalents, I don’t mind that risk/return profile at all even now. That money would otherwise be just cash and earn nothing. And as I said, treat it like you would cash. If you find something else by all means fund it with this quasi cash. This strategy would not suit someone who is always fully invested as against someone who keeps a cash cushion.

Pretty much. Instead of holding 25% cash, I'd rather hold 25% of SPACs that I like close to their NAV. My quasi cash doesn't sit idle as the deal optionality through a good jockey works behind the scenes (and i get a pop on some). Meanwhile, if there's blood everywhere (today was a prime example), it can swiftly fund a compelling buy. People invest in jockeys all the time. Heck this forum is a jockey worship of sorts (a quasi SPAC). SPACs close to NAVs are jockey cash. It's got more power than ordinary cash given the jockey's pedigree and connections.

The main problem with traditional value investing now is that many (if not most) of the cheap stuff is in the non-internet economy and losing market share every year. It's a melting ice cube even if it's a well run one. You can be right on the valuation part but lose your shirt as the business struggles harder and harder even to just stay where it is. The problem has become a meta one.

At $10-$10.5 some of the quality jockey SPACs are priced as quasi cash with embedded optionality. Seems like the thing to own in this overheated market since they are unlikely to fall more than 5-10% even if NASDAQ dives 30% (though never say never!)

Looks like one of these three has fallen. HZON (10.12) is getting Sportsradar as per Bloomberg. This is a highly sought after asset (40% market share of the burgeoning sports betting data market). It's essentially an oligopoly business with high revenue visibility (60-70% of revenues are typically tied to long term contracts and the rest is volume based kicker). Margins at maturity are going to be excellent (40-50%) as it's a picks and shovel play on sports data/betting. There are a lot of tailwinds this year and next as most states legalize betting. Expect the stock to open 50%+ tomorrow, if not higher.

Their operating cash flow run-rate is ~$100m while interest paid on LT debt is a third of that. Not too bad. The leverage covenant is at 6.75 so they are within that for now and with the leverage expected to fall to 4s it should be fine. Their term facility doesn't mature until end 2023. They also have a pretty large shareholder who might be a saviour potentially if things require it. They can always pare down some less interesting parts of the library to manage liquidity issues if any.

As a connoisseur of children's programming, I was shocked to learn how many brands and titles these guys own. I'm in WLDBF too, was gonna see if there was a thread and if not start one when I get time. They own 80% of Peanuts among others and have a really interesting vertical integration from content development through consumer products sales. Yep .. a really compelling monetisation story backed by strong execution (former Marvel executive), solid cash flows, really attractive multiple and lots of great kids content that is in demand by Netflix, DreamWorks and AppleTV+ besides one of the largest presence on YT. And a tight float to boot.

Wildbrain h/t to valueventures ..below for flagging this writeup on Wildbrain that I wasn't aware of. https://5d31a235-c572-46b5-a039-5967f80e8189.filesusr.com/ugd/718a37_d433d06abf354a039039af0d4933c5f8.pdf

Timber didn't have a single losing year during the last period of stagflation in 70s. The returns in most years were double digits. Here's an excerpt from a resource investing book i read awhile back, "First of all, trees grow year in and year out. Trees in good growing regions in the U.S. grow at 6%-8% per year. They grow through recessions. They grow through wars. They grow through stock and real estate crashes. They grow through everything. They give you built-in investment growth that isn’t guaranteed with a stock. Along with the tree growth, the price of wood has grown at a consistent rate throughout the years. It’s extremely difficult for a company to increase the prices of its goods by 6% every year. But the price of wood, according to legendary money manager Jeremy Grantham, has increased by that amount for the last 100 years.Specifically, he says “stumpage” prices – the value of all the wood on the stump – have beaten inflation by 3% a year over the last century.Another thing is timberland is a resource investment, but it’s not a constantly depleting one, like a gold mine or an oil well. Trees will grow back. It’s a sustainable resource investment. What happens when the market is slumping? When you can’t get the price you need to make the business profitable? Did you just waste eight… 15… 25 years on an investment with nothing to show for it? The answer can be summed up in five words: “Bank it on the stump.” In the industry, it’s a phrase that means if conditions aren’t right for harvesting your crop, you just keep letting it grow. You keep the profits on the stump and wait for a more profitable time to sell your timber – most likely, when timber prices are in your favor.Here are the rough numbers on where timberland returns come from: • 1% Landvalue increase • 6% Biologic growth of the trees • 3% "Stumpage" price increase (the price of the actual tree). It’s important to point out that rather than just going out and buying a forest, you want to make sure to invest in managed timberland. The reason it’s important to make the distinction is simple: Managed timberlands, according to a study conducted by the University of Georgia and published in the Journal of Forestry, generate returns almost four times higher than non-managed lands.The big names in the U.S. are Weyerhaeuser (WY), Rayonier (RYN), and Plum Creek (PCL). To spread your risk, you can buy the U.S. big names through an exchange traded fund with the symbol: WOOD. You can get much broader international exposure through the Guggenheim Timber Fund (CUT)."

DMYD/Genius sports

No, Burry didn't ride the GME squeeze. He sold out of his GME stock position well before the squeeze. He may still have had call options but he definitely didn't ride the stock in size beyond the $20 handle (which is still a very good outcome). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649339/000156761921003819/xslForm13F_X01/form13fInfoTable.xml (13F as of Dec 31,2020) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649339/000156761920019679/xslForm13F_X01/form13fInfoTable.xml (13F as of Sep 30,2020)

I'll push back on this a bit. I think learning position sizing from good mutual fund managers depends on your goals. If your goal is to remain wealthy I don't have a problem with it. If your goal is to get rich from investing, these are the wrong people to be studying. Mutual fund managers get rich by managing other people's money, not crushing it from an investing perspective. The wealthiest people in the world who aren't in the investment management industry got wealthy by loading up on their best ideas. 100%. Fortune 400 wealth was predominantly made in a concentrated fashion, whatever that might be. Concentration * Leverage of some sort (OPM, Fin leverage, float etc) * Time. Diversification * No form of leverage * Time = Good outcome if you have an edge, but not extreme wealth. Naturally, there is survivorship bias as concentration * leverage can often be disastrous. But it’s one of the main pathways to the elusive kingdom, however narrow it may be.

Amid many overpriced deals, there is one that is not. FGNA/OppFI. A lender to non-prime borrowers for very small loans. Led by an ex GS and trading at 9x PE with 50%+ historical CAGR. Some regulatory risks obviously but you'd underwrite them at this valuation. NPS is 80+. SPAC is led by Joe Moglia who grew TD Ameritrade 30x during his tenure. https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/fgnewamerica/files/pages/fgnewamerica/db/926/description/Investor+Presentation+%2802.10.2021%29+final.pdf

By that logic you should never own any listed stock since 2-4% bankers fee has been paid on almost any of the them when they got listed. That is what this is in aggregate - Bankers fee in another form. It’s just a funnel that is bringing hundreds of new companies to the listed market. But of course a lot of them would be average or below by definition but so will there be some exceptional ones. But sure focus on a wrong tree and miss the forest.

A few other SPACs of interest. VYGG (12.3) - Alexander Tamas, very early investor in FB, Reddit and one of the most highly regarded dealmakers in the VC world.The Board has some marquee names from the tech world. Rumoured to be targeting Reddit. AVAN (10.75) - Large European SPAC with a famous telecom billionaire at the helm. Europe is not crowded unlike the US so more likely to get a good deal. Rumoured to be targeting Klarna. Baupost and Citadel both own big stakes in this SPAC. HZON (10.87) - Led by LA Dodgers owner/Draft Kings founder/ex-Netflix content exec. Targeting Media/Entertainment (e.g. Discord/Soundcloud/Cameo?). Baupost owns a stake here.

NXE (Uranium), GRA.V (Graphene), AFM.V (Tin)

I've dabbled with Kelly mostly as a tool to determine relative allocation between competing ideas (could also just use expected value which tends to correlate reasonably well with the kelly allocation and is easier to remember). Qualitatively have been guided simply by this dictum - size it sufficiently big that it makes a difference to your life but not so big that you lose sleep over it.

Traditional value investing usually focuses on businesses with hard assets and/or conventional distribution models. These businesses are being disrupted and losing market share with historic moats no longer easy to sustain. It is not so much that value investing is struggling but the geiger counter has not been adjusted properly to this changed landscape. Tech enabled or tech oriented businesses rely much more on deep qualitative insight than quantitative number crunching and that's less a domain of traditional value investing. To invest in an era dominated by a) near zero rates, b) low cost of acquiring/servicing marginal customers/deep network effects, c) asset light businesses, d) heavy index flows, one needs to make some adjustments to their geiger counters. Forget value investing, look at the amount of idea generation on this board now adays? It's miniscule. It used to be phenomenal. It's not like ideas are not being discussed anymore - just that the avenues have moved around (chat platforms/discord servers/dedicated fin social media/podcasts etc). The pace of change needs us to make adjustments to our geiger counters every now and then.

Has Barry discussed the industry he might use the funds? "Jaws Acquisition Corp., led by Chairman Barry S. Sternlicht and Chief Executive Officer Joseph L. Dowling, will not be limited to a particular industry or geographic region in its identification and acquisition of a target company, except that it does not intend to pursue real estate, lodging or energy infrastructure assets."

JWS - Barry Sternlicht's SPAC

XONE Borrowed from Catherine Wood (ARK owns 20%)

CAT (ASX) https://www.catapultsports.com