SafetyinNumbers

What do you think the estimate for each will be? I haven’t thought about it much. It seems like the comps were relatively reasonable. I don’t think it changes the long term story but it could hit the stock. Is it possible there is enough concern, it’s holding back the stock?

They only take a gain on what they sold, I believe.

Thanks!

I did the same for the same reason. I also think speculative flows on the potential 60 add will pick up once the quarter is out of the way. It’s not a risk event driven funds want exposure to. I also co-wrote this substack about why FFH consensus estimates are too low in the long term but I expect the beats in the same areas for Q4, underwriting and investment performance. https://open.substack.com/pub/berczyparkcapital/p/fairfax-financial-a-generational?r=ecc87&utm_medium=ios

They probably pay a dividend but the money gets distributed back to FFH so it nets out.

They are netted out.

He controls that many but I think his economic position is ~800k shares less because FFH owns a stake in his holding company.

If i remember correctly, Fidelity, is mentioned as FFH’s largest shareholder. Does anyone have an accurate top 10 list? This is what is on Morningstar. I think Edgepoint would be second. Scotia is one of the bank owned fund managers that started buying recently. That’s multiple expansion in progress.

Thanks @Viking. Your writing and analysis is a tremendous resource to all Fairfax shareholders. We very much appreciate it!

We’ll check back in 5 years!

Lots of articles last night on the subject https://english.jagran.com/india/bengaluru-second-airport-bial-officials-back-nelamangala-and-kanakapura-road-for-location-details-bengaluru-news-10217493

Thanks @nwoodman. I really value your opinion.

My nephew, Ryan and I wrote about our variant perceptions on Fairfax’s underwriting and investment returns on Berczy Park Capital’s first ever substack. Thanks to @Vikingas we borrowed from his book and model. Please subscribe, share, read and comment. https://open.substack.com/pub/berczyparkcapital/p/fairfax-financial-a-generational?r=ecc87&utm_medium=ios

The fair way to measure the investment performance would be to use the IPO price after listing fees or $9.50 and compare that to intrinsic value per share which unfortunately isn’t readily apparent. My guess is the actual returns (theoretical until a realization) are somewhere between 10-15% CAGR after performance fees for 10 years.

I’m not sure it’s wise to turn over poultry, eggs and dairy to an unreliable partner. I didn’t used to think that but I think that now.

I haven’t seen the National note but CIBC cut it’s earnings estimates so it wasn’t a positive update in my view.

You make a good point for sure. I think each are about 4% of the float so definitely helps to have half the selling pressure.

FFH is still in the S&P/TSX Composite so it does get impacted. It should be something investors switch into in the Financials given USD exposure.

The IPO was at 272 so it’s up almost 10% from there. The business seems to be doing well so it’s probably just profit taking in an overall weak market for Indian small caps and financials.

It’s all relative but it wasn’t hard was it? That’s also why they agreed to a 6 month lock up.

My favourite band is Peter Cat Recording Company. I happened upon them because they were in Toronto recently and unfortunately I found out the day of and already had plans. My favourite song is People Never Change and while it’s not one of the featured songs on the new album I think the lyrics especially are awesome.

I went. It was a great trip. Around 20 people including ~10 investors. Every management team we met was impressive including that of Fairbridge. All of the positions seem undervalued. Hopefully more investors will go every year and that will help close the discount as I’m much likely to hold onto my position for the long term as opposed to trading vs the discount. After seeing BIAL in action, it makes one think anything is possible in India and FIH is a right tail on that opportunity precisely because it’s actively managed and not passive.

It’s the biggest company in the Greek ETF. It’s like saying it would be hard to do a secondary in Royal Bank.

They could participate pro rata in buybacks much like Exxon does when imperial Oil does buybacks.

FIH has a bigger discount but FFH has more leverage. Margin of safety seems high on both.