SafetyinNumbers

It’s a small country but I don’t think it takes a lot to predict redemption here. I assume mostly retail making the bet. The preferred aren’t very liquid so most hedge funds would pass.

I don’t think that makes any sense. I think FFH.PR.C and FFH.PR.D are close to their reset dates so likely prime candidates to get redeemed at par.

I really struggle paying up for quality. I think it’s because I worry about multiple contraction and because to get right tail type returns, I’m relying on multiple expansion. I think I understand why multiples keep expanding and I don’t know how it ends but I still struggle betting on it. How do others think about it?

Thanks for listening!

My understanding is they can maintain premium growth of 5% and return 75% of FCF back to shareholders via the dividend and buybacks.

As you pointed out in the first post, didn’t Peak sell its stake in Rawlings and then payout a special dividend?

Nice find @Hoodlum, thanks for sharing. I assume the other 15% is owned by management.

There is some but I think most of the buying happens post announcement and the people buying now usually sell into the demand leading up to the add post announcement.

I assume most of the buying happens after it’s official. That leaves 10 days to get positioned. I think it’s interesting to think about where it trades by the close on Dec 20 or by the end of the year.

In Canada are you including the ATS volume as well or just the TSX?

Anecdotally, I find it to be very idiosyncratic. For Fairfax, I am more optimistic because unlike a lot of adds that are already widely held by the largest active managers, Fairfax is not. What I don’t know is if these funds will finally succumb to the pressure and consider getting to market weight once it’s in the 60 if not sooner.

I think they will also hold Digit for a long time. I also think they will hold the TRS for a long time.

No, the relationship between P/B and ROE is exponential because of how much value the compounding at higher rates creates.

That earnings floor is dated and doesn’t include much contribution from the equity portfolio. $175 on a given FTM period seems more likely than $125.

I’m not selling but I know of at least one fund that plans to exit on the index add regardless of price because it’s the catalyst they have been waiting for. I think a lot of investors make their decision on price as opposed to value so I expect others will sell as well. Like I stated in the original post, we could also whipsaw downward but that’s not my read. I’m wrong a lot. Where do you think we close on Dec 20? Below where we are now?