winjitsu

Nuclear. The fact that India and China get around 70% of their electricity from coal probably has more to do with this than ICE vehicles. Modern internal combustion engines have comparably very low particulate emissions. It's one thing to plan to replace coal with solar/wind, it's another thing entirely to actually do it. Both countries currently receive about 4% of their electricity from wind while solar and other non-hydro, non-wind renewables account for around 1%. The process of actually replacing the 3,700 TWh of electricity generation in China derived from coal with renewables is daunting and a lot harder than some bureaucrat saying ok, no new coal plants we're only building solar and wind facilities from now on. It's not that China and India don't want clean air and low emissions, it's just that the scale involved in mind boggling. China is already the world's leading installer of wind and solar with the most installed capacity of each and together they barely makes up 5% of their total energy production. I think China and India will need to utilize clean coal technology extensively, as well as as much natural gas as they can get their hands on, I just don't see renewables scaling fast enough to address particulate emissions in the timeframe Chinese and Indian citizens want them addressed.

Purely investor point of view: 1) AAPL : at its core its a branded consumer company, which I believe has little moat. Lots of competitors with little ability to stop new entrants. Clunky products since Steve Jobs passed. Consumers are moving from iTunes -> Spotify. Apps are increasingly HTML based, so easily portable to other mobile devices. Points to the stickyness of the ecosystem really isn't that sticky. Large Gap 2) MSFT: Cloud growth is mostly coming from Office -> Office 365. Lost out on mobile OS which is much larger than desktop/laptop. Will probably lose out on the next big OS too due to slow bloated culture (AR/VR headset OS? Purely voice driven OS home consumer systems?). Moat: Network Effect 3) FB: I think its the new phonebook. Its value to users depends on the size of the network, so weaker for every new generation of kids, but stronger for those who have used the platform for a while. Important that they try to snap up any small competitor that's popular with younger demographics, but should have plenty of cash flow to do so. Moat: Network Effect + Economies of Scale 4) GOOG: Best in desktop search engine. Won big in mobile OS, which feeds mobile search engine. I think Android is worth more than Windows. Key will be keeping on-top of new platforms and making sure they own the search (again AR/VR headset OS? Purely voice driven OS home consumer systems?). Used to have a capital allocation problem with moonshots and Fiber, but the new CFO is more disciplined. Moat: Network Effect + Economies of Scale Large Gap 5) AMZN: Lowest cost retailer is the strongest moat of all the companies on here. Huge runway backed by the best CEO and capital allocator on the list. Moat: Economies of Scale I own none of these.

+1. I'm mostly doing shorter duration, greenblatt style event-driven trades (m&a arb, liquidations, spin-offs). I've been picking through a lot of bankruptcies as well ... Contura Energy and Vistra Energy come to mind.

Guys, we got it all wrong. The reason is social media :) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-10/mobius-says-low-stock-market-volatility-is-tied-to-social-media

https://www.wsj.com/articles/are-traders-creating-a-bizarre-new-feedback-loop-feedback-loop-feedback-loop-1491557400 Brings to mind Soro's concept of reflexivity and Taleb's Black Swan. VIX is up today due to the Syria strikes, but I've wondered for a while now why its been so low given all the geopolitical events happening. Whats the best strategy to take advantage of this? Rolling OTM index puts? [Attached article. By the way, if you're on Chrome, check out the plugin Bypass Paywall as a work around to get WSJ + other publication...] Are_Traders_Creating_a_Bizarre_New_Feedback_Loop..._Feedback_Loop...pdf

I use fidelity, but a real downside is they don't let you buy OTC/pink sheet stocks that do not have any filings on record. I think some bloggers like OTCadventures have covered this. I'm thinking of switching back to IBKR just this reason alone.

His thesis deck: http://www.bakerstreetcapital.com/BakerStreet_WAC.pdf

CAPM is a theory. If I accept that theory, I understand the argument that long-only is beta with factors. I don't accept this framework (I think it's crap), but I still understand your line of reasoning. Personally, I'm much more keen on adaptive market hypothesis, though it's not nearly as accepted or established in the literature. Agree to disagree on alpha, but maybe its all liquidity premium for us smaller investors anyways... [assuming I accept CAPM :)]

I think we're in agreement. Long only equities, is academically speaking, beta only with different factor exposures. Asness' Robo Buffett comes to mind. However, there are quite a few event-driven/special situations, market neutral, and distressed investors on this board as well which can lead to alpha. By the way, I think CAPM, beta, and alpha are a load of crap.

Yeah, mainly doesn't like the origins of the businesses because it was/is kind of scummy based on getting the cable franchises, feels he's a tax zealot, and (me talking here) let's be honest he's probably one of the biggest proponents of alternative metrics (like ebitda) which is partly used to enable his use of massive leverage and obfuscate the nature of the huge capital investments. Also, in my humble opinion, one should not be surprised that the would not automatically like/admire the largest private landowner in the U.S. or whatever, or someone who engages in all these corporate transactions and tracking stocks to "highlight the value". IIRC, he basically said that, because of the scummy way the initial franchises were acquired, he's ignored the industry and therefore Malone. I believe he did say that Malone is obviously a genius or something to that effect. Yeah, thanks for explaining.... Could you elaborate this one, does this just mean that he's not huge fan of Malone's roll-up strategy? Don't have the source handy buts it because of the self-dealing that goes on with Malone's entities. These guys pay themselves a exorbitant amount... (though shareholders have done pretty good following them).

+1 personal investing way more satisfying than working on the street. I highly recommend the book Free Capital if you haven't read it yet. @Jurgis to your point, I heard my PM exclaim that his only goal was to beat the index by a few percentage points a year -- "Gain a little more in the good years, lose a little less in the bad." More or less index hugging with the goal of building AUM. He's also seen a couple of crashes (01,08), and I think guys that have been in the game that long just want to survive the cycles. I personally hated this. I, however, disagree with your points AI & out-performance. AI can't quite do the contextual thinking that human brains are good for so fundamental investing will be around for a while :) And on out-performance -- most of my friends at Wall Street esque funds don't really invest their own PA and tend to use investment strategies that are useful for aum in the hundreds of millions to billions. You will compound much, much higher with your own strategies that take advantage of your smaller capital size (microcaps/small caps, the fact that you can enter/exit positions quickly etc.) Alpha and liquidity premium exist and are there for your taking! See https://corporate.morningstar.com/ib/documents/MethodologyDocuments/IBBAssociates/ABCHedgeFundReturns.pdf My favorite quote from Julian Robertson: I think educated investors on this board can handily beat the market if they stick to easy investments in under-followed companies and actually put in the time. Structure + Routine! Munger would spend a few hours in the morning on RE and other investments while working at his law firm full time: http://www.mymoneyblog.com/buffett-on-charlie-munger-work-for-yourself-an-hour-each-day.html This piece from Gannon also is good food for thought, though I don't necessarily agree with it all: http://www.gannononinvesting.com/blog/2016/11/10/how-to-invest-when-you-only-have-an-hour-a-day-to-do-it

Ehh -- also in the similar boat a few years ago, but looking back regret not doing Investment Banking or Equity Research. These programs are basically training for recruiting so you can jump to a HF (IBD or ER) or PE (IBD and maybe Consulting?). Most of my friends that did these types of programs are now in top PE/HFs and yes -- you can definitely find value oriented funds (see Graham and Doddsville letters). I've been doing something a bit different (VC) and value investing on my free time, but definitely have fallen behind my friends that sucked it up and did the work for 2 years and now have transitioned to top funds. As listed before, you can: [*]Get your CFA [*]Transition to PE/HF after a few years in consulting. Just get in touch with some recruiters. [*]Work 3-5 years and transition into a top MBA Speaking from my experience from a top school in the US, its still pretty easy to jump from a top undergrad or MBA program into ER/IBD -> HF/PE or asset management with no background. Pedigree opens a lot of doors, which I think applies to both sides of the pond. Tech is very robust right now so a lot of smarter kids are headed to the Googles and the Amazons of the world, where the pay is similar, and the lifestyle and hours infinitely better than finance.

Hillhouse Capital Farallon Capital (from More Money than God)

Have you watched https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ssZVi-7xoE yet? Hard not to like the entire management ... Then there's this article on the Amex Break-Up https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-how-amex-lost-costco/ :

I'm not advocating for anything illegal, but I think the world would benefit if *someone* photocopied this and shared this with the world, a la Klarman's Margin of Safety :)

Morningstar has alot of the company-related articles from WSJ for free. Example: WSJ today https://www.wsj.com/articles/whole-foods-to-close-nine-stores-cuts-its-outlook-1486591815 Morningstar http://news.morningstar.com/all/dow-jones/us-markets/2017020814427/whole-foods-to-close-nine-stores-cuts-its-outlook.aspx

Surprised no one brought up his points on passive funds flowing into ETFs leading to wider market inefficiency. Not my original thought, but one can argue that more passive money is better for market efficiency since it leaves more of the price-seeking function to active managers, or so called "smart money," in the long run. In the short-run however, is I agree.

http://mastersinvest.com/newblog/2016/9/27/avoiding-groupthink

+1. I could never understand it either. I have some loans that I could pay off at any time, but my re-investment returns in my portfolio are much, much higher. If at any time I think my portfolio return will lag my interest rate, I'll pay it down. Certain members of my family debt adverse I'm crazy. I think they're sub-rational.

Bloomberg has some nice backtest features for automated trading strategies which is the easy way. The harder and more academically rigorous way is using CRSP & COMPUSTAT. If you're still in school, you or your professor may have access to WRDS (https://wrds-web.wharton.upenn.edu/wrds/index.cfm?), and you'll want to use the CRSP/COMPUSTAT linked database. There's quite a bit of data, so helps if you have some technical computer skills (SQL + scripting language of choice). Best of luck.

Writser is basing this off a general academic theory on human capital and asset allocation. More or less as a laborer, you can do a PV calculation of your future earnings and think of it as an asset called human capital. The older you get, the PV of your future earnings decreases. Meanwhile, you convert your earnings into savings and into financial capital. Your overall wealth = human capital + financial capital The argument is not there is no opportunity cost, but rather losing 100k in your financial portfolio when you're a doctor with a PV of future earnings of $2.5mm from your job, you'll still be okay. Buffett is a unique case since his mindset was that his PV of earnings from being a laborer would be 0, so impacts to his financial capital would be huge. While this mindset may be prevalent on this board, I don't think its the case for the general population. I don't think the theory is perfect by any ways, but it does help frame personal asset allocation decisions for less sophisticated investors. For example, according to this theory, if your human capital is high risk and highly correlated with financial markets (i.e. you work for an investment bank or a hedge fund), you should seek lower risk investments with your financial capital. That way when the financial market collapses, you don't lose both human capital and financial capital. etc etc. Anyways, my discretionary portfolio, in order of size: AGX (~40% will be trimming shortly) Cash (35% + and growing) VDTH INCP RCII

Geez personally doing a cash out refi at the moment. Asked an old acquaintance who is a mortgage broker, but looking at your guy's fees, i'm now slightly worried I may be getting ripped off. Location: Seattle Area 3.125% 15yr fixed (was way cheaper than the bank rates I saw on the internet by about 200-300 bp) Condo 75% LTV Quoted at ~$3000 in fees. His breakdown was 400-600 for appraisal, 1100 for his fee, 1200 for title and escrow and some other small fees. That being said, the 3.125 rate comes with ~$900 coming my way, so all in I'm in for about $2100 net for fees. Had the option to pay ~$900 the other way to get a rate closer to 2.9%. Also have a 6 month float down period where I can re-adjust my rate free of charge if it goes down. Anyone have any experience with this?

Is the Atwood position new? Looks enticing at 17% YTM.

If you want to take non-US (institutional) money, the preferred setup will be a Cayman Island master feeder partnership structure so your offshore LPs can avoid paying taxes. We've sat on the sidelines in the past waiting until funds create an offshore entity to invest.

NASDAQ:APWC Net-net, you can get the background on VIC. Probably won't change ever...