Fly

Insane volume. Is adoption closer than we think?

Batteries... so many batteries...

Batteries are about to become a big deal

KRKNF?

ETFs have definitely reduced on-chain metrics all around. It is harder to glean trends from the addresses/transaction sizes/etc because of it. On-chain users are likely the more hardcore bitcoin crowd and/or foreigners without easy access to liquid ETFs.

Bitcoin CEO isn't going to like this...

Yes exactly like last cycle. There was some supposed price where MSTR would face a margin call and liquidation, Saylor denied it. Price dropped below the supposed liquidation price and ... nothing happened. MSTR recovered and that remained one of the best buying opportunities for the stock. I do expect better from Burry, but in reality he has been a permabear since his success with the GFC. Every hammer sees a nail type of thing.

Not going to lie, this isn't how I thought it would go either. Fortunately, I am used to the fact that I have been wrong before. Call it a special gift. Regarding bitcoin I have also been wrong many times before when trying to forecast what it would do or where the price would go. Fortunately, bitcoin doesn't listen to my predictions and still produces blocks every 10mins. Bitcoin hasn't changed in 17 years it has been running, and that is a good thing.

Amazing job

I think this is likely as well. Underperformance for a full cycle or two will cause the BTC Nerds and speculator crowd to exit. Meanwhile the BTC hippies stay the course, build, and participate.

Gold held in Texas Depository Vault? Dumb idea. Centralized control is what we're trying to get away from.

This would have done well if you could have held til now. And for a contrarian idea I'd say we're getting close to shorting PMs. Not yet, but sometime back half of this year. Software sector looks pretty bombed out currently. AI fears are overblown

Central bank effects: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/gold-prices Bitcoin isn't trading like anything else at this point. Gold/Silver booming, risk assets booming, bitcoin is flat/down in the past year. I still think it is a misunderstood asset that is a class of its own.

That one hit home, thanks for the trip down memory lane

What is the best way to invest in this? RXRX? Insilico's HK listing?

This is really incredible, and very interested to see how this plays out

If BTC survives another 100years when the block subsidy goes away then I have no doubt miners will continue to mine. At that point I could even see something crazy like every wifi connected device carrying some small mining component similar to the lotto miners we see today. Imagine a world with tens of billions of internet connected devices all contributing tiny amounts of hash power. The equipment manufacturers could have their own mining pools as another revenue stream.

Let's see how COBF vs WSB goes:

The interesting scenario is what happens if/when stablecoin payments are available on payment rails around the world for regular transactions like buying groceries. Will the US Dollar (via stablecoins) start to displace smaller local currencies in weak economies? https://wise.com/gb/blog/weakest-currencies-in-the-world Or perhaps even taking a small % of transactions in other developed nations...?

Tether may be or might have been a scam at some point, but now they are a big buyer of govt debt. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/pla02-ranked-the-biggest-buyers-of-u-s-debt/ The USGov needs buyers, so they will bring players like Tether into the fold and get them on track to grow and do more of what they do (buy more Treasuries). That's what Cantor/Lutnick did before Trump got into office, and now with the Stablecoin bills being passed it solidifies Tether as a big boy who will soon be "too big to fail."

Love these threads, but it always seems to be some speculative small cap tech name that winds up winning. Photonics computing or some buzzy thing like that is my guess for 2026. POET ticker fits the bill here

I bought some long ago in 2018 when they did their SAFT raise, so needless to say it hasn't done well. The business model was supposed to revolve around the "tokenize everything" theme but there were management/regulatory struggles along the way. They have accumulated a fair amount of regulatory approvals and licenses in recent years that could potentially pan out if this tokenization narrative gains steam (I'm not optimistic). But put all that aside for the moment, the TZROP token does provide 10% revenue as a dividend in the event the company ever makes a profit. The company also wants to have a traditional IPO in 2026, but nobody will touch it with this TZROP overhang. My thesis is they will either buy out or convert TZROP into common stock as a part of the IPO process. Most TZROP holders joined in 2017-18 at $8-10/share, so I expect a valuation at that level or higher in order to entice a majority of holders to accept a deal. BYON (Used to be Overstock) is the largest holder: https://investors.beyond.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2025/Beyond-Inc--Directs-tZERO-Board-of-Directors-to-Prioritize-Specific-Tasks-to-Capitalize-on-Present-Market-Conditions/default.aspx

Along the lines of crypto exchanges BKKT might be interesting, ICE is a major owner. Also real dark horse but TZROP for the takeout before IPO in 2026 and then possibility of tokenized asset trading getting more attention.

100% this. They start with bitcoin and quickly move on to a blatant scam. Most of the risk is borne by early adopters as well. Play with 100x derivatives and you too can be like an early adopter buying BTC The grifters want something they can control. Or at least they think they can control it.

Yes, my apologies I did not mean to slight Linux and my hope is that someday BTC follows a path similar to one that Linux has laid. Right now BTC is definitely a niche use case when it comes to P2P transactions with highest adoption in the global south countries and those with struggling/failed currencies. I wouldn't say it is displacing any reputable currencies at this point. In developed countries BTC mainly follows the digital gold narrative and "debasement trade" like Lyn's article above. My hope for the future (10yrs+) would be for companies like MSTR to provide financial services to retail with BTC as the core in the same way Android uses Linux. If/when this happens I still don't think BTC will be an existential threat to developed fiat currencies, but the adoption rate globally will be much higher than the tiny level it is today. Personally, I do not subscribe to the narrative that bitcoin will displace fiat. Governments and traditional financial institutions in developed countries have power and incentive aligned to continue with those systems they can easily control. I don't see any change to that in our lifetimes despite my love of bitcoin.