Dalal.Holdings

"An ounce of prevention..." or another useless saying (for those who will now end up spending pounds and pounds on the cure). Unfortunately a lot of innocent people (restaurant workers, etc) will end up paying for much of the cost, let alone those who lose family members/themselves to this tragic pandemic. Another useless data point for the "nothing could be done anyway" and "we can't blame our leaders" (a.k.a. "keep politics out of this discussion please") crowd. Carry on.

No. Because there's a big difference between a runaway exponential process and a stable, predictable one that you can build your healthcare system around. And when you have one on top of the other, then you get in real trouble. In other words, this is about as smart as someone saying "well, it snowed a lot this winter, how about that global warming?" But the next level of thinking is: Yes, we should do a lot more to also reduce deaths from other sources, like cars and the diseases of aging and other diseases, and I hope we do. But these stats are an argument to do more, not less. Well said. No one is trying to do the impossible and stop people from dying. As has been argued in many forms on this thread already, a contagious (i.e. multiplicative) process is very different from events with independent (i.e. non-correlated) risks: car accidents, cancer deaths, heart disease associated deaths. If you are an insurance company, would you rather be in the business of insuring car accidents in the entire United States or would you rather be in the business of insuring houses for floods on a single island in the Bahamas? In the latter example, on one day you are bound to learn a lesson about risk correlation.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the-contrarian-coronavirus-theory-that-informed-the-trump-administration The dangers of botching interpretation of data and forecasting (and not engaging in the precautionary principle), and as recently as March 16th: A broken model leads to policy makers not taking this seriously...SMH

There could be day to day fluctuation on how data is released. Do West Coast states release data later? In some places is as much testing and release of lab results occurring on weekend days as on weekdays? Are fewer primary care sites (testing sites) and labs (to report tests) open on weekends? One would think mortality data would not have the same problem however. Also would not rely on data unless the day is complete (Midnight PDT) and it's all been reported. The big picture for U.S. not reassuring: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html And new areas (MI, FL, MA, IL, LA, PA) are entering the fold. At this point, regional quarantine is useless because this has seeded across the U.S.

Thank you. Hope I never get to find out what those choice names were. ;D I didn't do any fancy analysis--just: elementary understanding of compounding + watching how this played in other countries and acknowledging it had not hit here yet + consulting Taleb's works There was an 11 year bull market and a lot of doomsayers during those 11 years (incl Taleb who was musing about a rout in U.S. Treasury Bonds early in this time period). Nothing during those 11 years triggered me to exit to cash like what I saw was coming in Feb 2020. Many people got it earlier than me. The situation in the U.S. is tragic and frustrating to me because the proper action of travel ban was never followed up by preparations for outbreak at home by this administration. Really terrible that the United States looks to bear the worst of this (again, if you trust China's numbers, but even then, we're #2 at best).

This is why forming opinions based on the letters after someone's name (credentials) is not wise. Also, as far as I can tell--he's no physician--PhD, ScD. Not that I care about his degrees. You wouldn't believe all the nonsense that is heard on a daily basis on the inside of a physician's lounge.

I don't see how you can have higher inflation without a financial crisis. Not with everyone geared up to the debt levels they are. Higher inflation leads to higher interest rates and then lower spending the way I see it. My basic understanding is--inflation good for long term debtors. Deflation is what kills debtors (seen in Great Depression). If you have a 30 year mortgage and locked in at 3% interest a year, inflation of 4-5% would make it easier for you to pay the interest/debt off (negative real interest rate for you), especially if you earn a salary which rises with inflation. Coming out of this (12-18 months from now) qmy base case is the US will look much more like Europe (possibly with negative interest rates). I think that scenario is much more likely than we see meaningfully higher inflation. It’s possible, but I think we are different from Europe in many key ways—for one, not too worried about spending fiscal dollars (i.e. no austerity), no issues with different regions (i.e. Germans not too keen on “bailing out” southern countries). I think U.S. more likely to spend government dollars and distribute to bottom percentile (esp the workers hit hardest by this) and this is with Trump in WH and Republicans in Senate. If that changes the other way in Nov, the purse strings will put more $ power (call it “redistribution” if you will, but the poor/middle class have been screwed for decades now) in middle/lower classes which is likely to lead to uptick in inflation.

I don't see how you can have higher inflation without a financial crisis. Not with everyone geared up to the debt levels they are. Higher inflation leads to higher interest rates and then lower spending the way I see it. My basic understanding is--inflation good for long term debtors. Deflation is what kills debtors (seen in Great Depression). If you have a 30 year mortgage and locked in at 3% interest a year, inflation of 4-5% would make it easier for you to pay the interest/debt off (negative real interest rate for you), especially if you earn a salary which rises with inflation.

Thanks to bond market, USA can borrow like no other. Wouldn’t worry too much about fin crisis. End game of all of this will be inflation and taxes on wealthy and ultimate narrowing of wealth gap that has widened over decades. Wealthy folks will lose some of their (current) large share.

Finding a drug to treat a new condition is very hard. Esp when that condition is very new (months old). Hydroxychloroquine (immunosuppressant, anti malarial, ?antiviral), Azithromycin (antibiotic, unlikely antiviral), BCG vaccine I personally assign very low probabilities of them working out. It's possible Hydroxychloroquine may help when this progresses to ARDS due to anti-inflammatory action (other anti-inflammatories are being used in ICU COVID patients). I put the world's best hope on this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-28/gilead-says-it-s-expanding-access-to-covid-19-drug

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html 2 day (!) doubling time of mortality in the U.S....the lagging indicator is matching (!?exceeding) exponential growth rate of cases, just delayed by several weeks. Obviously a limited sample of 2 days, but mortality data is anything but reassuring.

Yeah, I think the people that have this view are basically misunderstanding five things: [*]Exponential growth [*]It takes weeks between infection and hospitalization and death [*]Hospitals are not infinitely expandable--if enough people come in, hospitals run out of resources [*]If you're in the ICU with this, you are likely in there for weeks [*]That without ventilators, the death rate increases dramatically Everyone I've seen who's taken a "there's no problem" position seems to have basically missed at least one of these points. In that post, he's certainly completely misunderstanding points 1 and 2. He'll probably miss points 3, 4, and 5, but hasn't got to that point yet, because he's so busy missing 1 and 2. Great list. Dynamic processes with these complexities thrown in are not very straightforward to understand.

Nice post. Those of us who see it in this fashion should acknowledge valid arguments from the other side, but we have no obligation or burden to educate them, especially when broken theses are repeated ad nauseam or if confronted with thesis creep (moving of the goalposts). I will add that the course of this illness (5 days from catching it to symptoms and 2 weeks from symptoms to potential mortality or 1+ week on a ventilator managing ARDS) seems to be throwing a lot of people off -- especially those who are looking at mortality data in the U.S. to draw conclusions. Mortality is a lagging indicator, it would be like forecasting if we are in a recession by looking at the current unemployment rate. By the time the unemployment rate reflects recessionary conditions, you are already in recession. Thus far, we have seen this play out pretty much the exact same way in every place--the places that drag their feet about locking down are eventually forced to lock down. Hundreds of thousands may be at risk of dying or maybe just tens of thousands. Doesn't matter. This isn't 1918. Today's human beings have a much lower threshold for hardship and death around them. It's what comes with a much higher standard of living. They will not tolerate even what was standard 100 years ago. The economic effects will inevitably follow -- and you are seeing that. People will stop going out/traveling even if it only puts grandma/grandpa at risk. And they will shame other young folk who choose to ignore and party (social proofing) and shame the companies that choose to come back online and put people at risk. Some may say "100k deaths so what", but they have not considered the second/third order economic effects. Hard to say if it will be as deep or prolonged as GFC since big banks are well capitalized, but S&P @ 2500 does not seem to adequately price it. So even the people who say "this is no big deal" and throw all their weight behind arguing that will not be able to fight the strongly (negative) economic reaction that is occurring in response to this pandemic. "Fear spreads instantaneously. Confidence comes back through the door one at a time." -WEB

Come on, this is turning things upside down. Credentialism is unnecessary unless you first bring it up yourself; nobody here knows my profession as I've never told you what it is. When someone first comes out saying he's an MD while making medical statements therefore sounding like someone who knows what he's saying, then later deletes that comment because perhaps he's really not, then of course that's on him. Not on the person who noticed and comments on it. Exactly. There was another fellow, by the name of RuleNumberOne, who was basically run out of town for saying a lot while also arguably saying nothing. In hind site, RuleNumberOne's repeated rants and warnings proved to be highly accurate and probably some of the most valuable postings thrown together on this board the past year. But nonetheless, screaming loudly while essentially offering up no useful investment angle, many find to be a distraction, at least on an investment website. Dalal and others have offered some valuable stuff, but the ranting and raving and attacking is just unnecessary. If I make a statement, like "I think this is fertile ground for long/short", I try to communicate this clearly and give examples of what I'm doing, as do others. Hopefully sometimes there is reciprocation which is what makes this place great. Not insinuating the end of the world but refusing to actually make a market call. Not "I'm buying puts!" despite outrageously expensive premium costs, while giving no specific underlying name, or strike or date... and then hooting and hollering when the market moves. Buying puts on cruise ships and airlines is a horrible risk adjusted idea right now; even if they end up making money. Its like the guy who wins the lottery and boasts of his skill even though everyone qualified knows the odds still said buying lottery tickets is a dumb money move. Gregmal--I am in fact a practicing MD in NYC (not a psychiatrist) and I trained as an engineer before that where compounding/differential equations and understanding large data sets, stochastic/Monte Carlo simulations (primarily in MATLAB) was a key facet of my work/education. I have said much more than "nothing" on here and on the Tesla thread before that. Being a contrarian ain't easy, that's for sure. I owe you and people on here nothing--not my stock picks, not my put positions, nor that I went to cash "in chunks" a month ago, but you got it out of me and now mock me for laughable "carrying costs" when it paid out 4-5 to 1 in 2 weeks. You have added negative value to this thread overall, have been completely wrong, and have not at all revealed how you are positioned or who you are. I admit that I have been abrasive on here, but your own behavior has not exactly been a shining example for others. As you may have read, things are busy here, so good luck. I'll be at work and in the meantime on Twitter and other outlets.

When patients "code" in the hospital, it is usually due to an abnormal heart rhythm that often leads to mortality. The underlying cause does not have to be cardiac (though if you have preexisting cardiac disease you are at increased risk). For example--a virus that causes ARDS can cause severe hypoxia. Severe hypoxia can cause pulmonary hypertension (increased load for the right side of the heart to pump against) and cause cardiac ischemia/infarction, cardiac arrest, V-fib, etc. Certain viral infections are also known direct cardiomyopathy and as your article notes, that could be a factor with this but obviously lots of uncertainty at this point. Or another example: taking Trump's favorite drug Hydroxychloroquine can prolong what's called the QT interval and lead to Torsades de Pointes which is often fatal. In that case, the drug should be blamed as the culprit, not the heart. Yep definitely a psychiatrist. Didn't do to well on match day did you? So when you have no arguments left, attack individuals. Got it. No just analyzed the quality of the "data" in your post. I'm data driven yo! And your right, you haven't attacked my intellectual capacity, my analytical skills, questioned my profession, etc. What the fuck is wrong me. Touché. My frustration for the lack of urgency in U.S. response got the best of me and I am probably guilty of all of those things. My apologies. I need a breather off this site, after all.

When patients "code" in the hospital, it is usually due to an abnormal heart rhythm that often leads to mortality. The underlying cause does not have to be cardiac (though if you have preexisting cardiac disease you are at increased risk). For example--a virus that causes ARDS can cause severe hypoxia. Severe hypoxia can cause pulmonary hypertension (increased load for the right side of the heart to pump against) and cause cardiac ischemia/infarction, cardiac arrest, V-fib, etc. Certain viral infections are also known direct cardiomyopathy and as your article notes, that could be a factor with this but obviously lots of uncertainty at this point. Or another example: taking Trump's favorite drug Hydroxychloroquine can prolong what's called the QT interval and lead to Torsades de Pointes which is often fatal. In that case, the drug should be blamed as the culprit, not the heart. Yep definitely a psychiatrist. Didn't do to well on match day did you? So when you have no arguments left, attack individuals. Got it.

You forgot to post this part: CAUTION: Syndromic surveillance data can be hard to interpret. Any increases above expected could be due to changes in healthcare seeking behavior (people might be more likely to go to the ED now with less severe symptoms because they are aware of the COVID-19 epidemic), or it could be due to actual viral illness, or a combination. Maybe your eyes are better then mine but when did COVID testing starting start in NYC? This is again the argument for data bias. It is possible, but since this explanation was first posited to dismiss non-confirming evidence (about 50 pages back on this thread, by my estimate), it has become less and less probable. In other words, every day that passes where we do not see numbers subside, it becomes less and less likely that "they are all blowing this out of proportion". But ultimately given poor testing and heightened political implications, retrospective YoY morbidity rates will be the confirming evidence either way. And every single day that passes, it become less and less worthwhile to spend time addressing such flawed logic. The burden of proof is clearly on one side here and existing evidence to support that side is non-existent, but you wouldn't know it based on the level of confidence coming from its proponents. Again, this has played out all over the world now in a very specific way. We are just among the last to experience it. And even then people refuse to learn/acknowledge what is now right in front of them. And this sums it up perfectly: We will see what the serologic tests say. Hey, I saw in a quote a little ways back you said you were an MD (looks like you deleted the post), but find that odd as you heavily criticized my analytical skills due to med school training. I have divulged so I feel compelled to ask as your name doesnt say "MD on the internet talking about corona virus". Whats your back ground? You can judge my posts based on their content. After all, I presume when I come here that this is a place for analytical people who can interpret data (though my faith in that is stretched very often). I do not need to use my degrees/what I do for a living to support my arguments. I didn't ask that it be used to support your arguments. You questioned me a while back and noticed you said you were an M.D. and your uncle went to MIT. Based on your response and the fact you deleted the post it sounds like you lied. Just wondering. You repeatedly use your credentials in the ED to bolster your arguments--someone else asked you whether you were an ortho pa based on your posts. And LOL about the uncle quip. I was mocking our genius President, but whoosh.

When patients "code" in the hospital, it is usually due to an abnormal heart rhythm that often leads to mortality. The underlying cause does not have to be cardiac (though if you have preexisting cardiac disease you are at increased risk). For example--a virus that causes ARDS can cause severe hypoxia. Severe hypoxia can cause pulmonary hypertension (increased load for the right side of the heart to pump against) and cause cardiac ischemia/infarction, cardiac arrest, V-fib, etc. Certain viral infections are also known direct cardiomyopathy and as your article notes, that could be a factor with this but obviously lots of uncertainty at this point. Or another example: taking Trump's favorite drug Hydroxychloroquine can prolong what's called the QT interval and lead to Torsades de Pointes which is often fatal. In that case, the drug should be blamed as the culprit, not the heart.

You forgot to post this part: CAUTION: Syndromic surveillance data can be hard to interpret. Any increases above expected could be due to changes in healthcare seeking behavior (people might be more likely to go to the ED now with less severe symptoms because they are aware of the COVID-19 epidemic), or it could be due to actual viral illness, or a combination. Maybe your eyes are better then mine but when did COVID testing starting start in NYC? This is again the argument for data bias. It is possible, but since this explanation was first posited to dismiss non-confirming evidence (about 50 pages back on this thread, by my estimate), it has become less and less probable. In other words, every day that passes where we do not see numbers subside, it becomes less and less likely that "they are all blowing this out of proportion". But ultimately given poor testing and heightened political implications, retrospective YoY morbidity rates will be the confirming evidence either way. And every single day that passes, it become less and less worthwhile to spend time addressing such flawed logic. The burden of proof is clearly on one side here and existing evidence to support that side is non-existent, but you wouldn't know it based on the level of confidence coming from its proponents. Again, this has played out all over the world now in a very specific way. We are just among the last to experience it. And even then people refuse to learn/acknowledge what is now right in front of them. And this sums it up perfectly: We will see what the serologic tests say. Hey, I saw in a quote a little ways back you said you were an MD (looks like you deleted the post), but find that odd as you heavily criticized my analytical skills due to med school training. I have divulged so I feel compelled to ask as your name doesnt say "MD on the internet talking about corona virus". Whats your back ground? You can judge my posts based on their content. After all, I presume when I come here that this is a place for analytical people who can interpret data (though my faith in that is stretched very often). I do not need to use my degrees/what I do for a living to support my arguments.

You forgot to post this part: CAUTION: Syndromic surveillance data can be hard to interpret. Any increases above expected could be due to changes in healthcare seeking behavior (people might be more likely to go to the ED now with less severe symptoms because they are aware of the COVID-19 epidemic), or it could be due to actual viral illness, or a combination. Maybe your eyes are better then mine but when did COVID testing starting start in NYC? This is again the argument for data bias. It is possible, but since this explanation was first posited to dismiss non-confirming evidence (about 50 pages back on this thread, by my estimate), it has become less and less probable. In other words, every day that passes where we do not see numbers subside, it becomes less and less likely that "they are all blowing this out of proportion". But ultimately given poor testing and heightened political implications, retrospective YoY morbidity rates will be the confirming evidence either way. And every single day that passes, it become less and less worthwhile to spend time addressing such flawed logic. The burden of proof is clearly on one side here and existing evidence to support that side is non-existent, but you wouldn't know it based on the level of confidence coming from its proponents. Again, this has played out all over the world now in a very specific way. We are just among the last to experience it. And even then people refuse to learn/acknowledge what is now right in front of them. And this sums it up perfectly:

We could have copied S Korea (not China) and avoided lockdown. There are still regions in the country that can right now. Even the places that are late can. It involves contact tracing, widespread testing (of contacts especially), and strict isolation of known positives. This would require federal leadership, but instead we have almost no centralized leadership and rely on patchwork local/state leadership which precludes us from achieving the S Korea model. As a result, this is set up to play out in the United States in a highly patchwork manner--some regions will surge later as others are resolving and maybe the late surge individuals will travel to the now senescent regions and re-expose the population...

We are all very interconnected these days. Globalization comes with hidden costs that are borne out over time from rare events like this (including when you move supply chain of critical items that you need overseas: 'When the well is dry, we know the worth of water.' -BF). Taleb has written extensively about it (and those of us who waste our time reading his material recognize it). During times like these you also recognize the importance of having cash on hand and not "optimizing the balance sheet by levering up 2.5x EBITDA". WEB clearly gets it (remembering those recent articles about how Berkshire was "holding too much cash").

5% of their known cases are dead. And their cases are clearly growing exponentially (see link), but confirmation bias is a helluva drug. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Washington_(state) Im going to post now. Im going to go away for 30 days. Trust me, last post for 30 days. Promise Now I'm back 12 minutes later, I'm retweeting every 12 seconds. I'm back I'm going away now. Now I'm back Just kidding here's more Walking Dead stuff. What exactly are you peddling here Dalal? The Taleb infatuation is curious. He s a media personality. Should we also start quoting the Cramers and the Jon Najarian's of the world as well? I was right (so was Taleb). You were wrong. You add negative value to this thread. Now go back to the politics section you frequent since you are a connoisseur for high quality, impactful level of forum posts. It is also a safe space for (former) Trump supporters like yourself. And Peter Schiff was right about the mortgage crisis too because he yelled loud for a while and then screamed even louder afterwards. Then, like Taleb, does his TV rounds and writes books basking in the attention. Others got to work and figured out how to make a few bucks in the markets during that backdrop. So I get why Taleb does what he does, you though? Aspiring author? I'm now really done here. Like really. Really really. Best of luck with the zombie apocalypse. Good riddance. Hope all your time in the politics section teaches you how to "make a buck".

"I moved on" Oh wait here are five more posts now... And please don't mock the politics section.

5% of their known cases are dead. And their cases are clearly growing exponentially (see link), but confirmation bias is a helluva drug. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Washington_(state) Im going to post now. Im going to go away for 30 days. Trust me, last post for 30 days. Promise Now I'm back 12 minutes later, I'm retweeting every 12 seconds. I'm back I'm going away now. Now I'm back Just kidding here's more Walking Dead stuff. What exactly are you peddling here Dalal? The Taleb infatuation is curious. He s a media personality. Should we also start quoting the Cramers and the Jon Najarian's of the world as well? I was right (so was Taleb). You were wrong. You add negative value to this thread. Now go back to the politics section you frequent since you are a connoisseur for high quality, impactful level of forum posts. It is also a safe space for (former) Trump supporters like yourself.