flesh

I’ll try to translate trumpese for you. He knows that the total fentanyl crossings from Canada are minor. He wants them reduced. The primary reason he says this is so that he has a stronger reason to impose tariffs that will hold up and he believes that something about trade relations are unfair… smokescreens. It could be subsidies to certain industries, existing tariffs, tariff like instruments that have the same or similar effect, restrictions, or any other form of distorting effect. Of course free trade with friendlies and maximizing comparative advantage is the ideal, the ideal is never what happens. I posted in another thread with no response but I’ve yet to see a thorough analysis of all distorting effects on trade between usa and Canada. I personally done know if it’s fair or close to it. If it is I’ll agree it is if it’s wholistic. Regarding whether or not trumps strategies are, if I’m right, lying. I suppose you could say he’s lying partially.. in the sense that he uses one small reason as the main reason for what he’s doing. Otoh if he’s right and trade is unfair and In order to straighten it out he can’t see another path forward…. That’s a more difficult question. I don’t see how anybody can confidently say anything wo considering what I’ve written here. I originally come back to cobf recently thinking the Canadians … or somebody.. being the smart analytical types that invest.. would have a competent analysis of the trade between the two countries and found the opposite. I haven’t had time to do it my self but I’ll try. Also, if the usa is going to produce some things here for strategic reasons, antifragilityreasons, then that means by definition we will be buying less of those things Elsewhere and that means elsewhere wont be happy about selling less stuff to us. If we can’t compete for ammo prices and we need to manufacture our own, we may need tariffs. Also don’t assume those of us who voted for him are cultists, you won’t learn anything that way. In 2016 my father voted for him, and hated doing so, being a lifelong Mormon, the cleanest sort, only because he knew the Supreme Court appointees were coming up. He has no idea what happening in general. for myself, doge and cutting the deficit to 3% of gdp was paramount and the rest noise and I saw the opposite inclination since forever on the other side. For me, if this happens and wars don’t get worse, I’m willing to deal with the fallout as I see it as existential. I voted for Obama Romney Hillary then trump trump. Other things matter but I rank order them low compared to a snowballing debt/interest rate/inflation problem. For me the biggest mistake of the last four years was allowing the economy to be shuttered excessively and raining money in massive excess. Biggest mistake I’m aware of in my lifetime. I said that here March 2020 more or less. Then Biden doubled down when the coast was clear. Destroyed the lives of tens of Millions of non asset owners for 79 year olds with 2.5 co morbidities who were going to die shortly and whom we could have targeted for relief at 1/100th the cost.

Polls are bullshit. So is mainstream media. All coordinated. We’ll see who liked trump in about two years and again in 4 years.

Yes, and Luca will burn calories so bron doesn’t have to until it counts. They are maybe one piece away from being right there. over at golden state we have jimmy buckets doing the same for steph now. Although he sometimes seems to barely try on offense, let’s see if we get playoff jimmy this year. Kuminga back soon.

Trump will control the fed. He can adjust tariffs to induce fed changes in rates. Get bargains to some degree in the meantime. 10t govt debt rolls over this year iirc. Some tariffs stick to some degree for strategic reasons some adjust downwards over time. Increases o shoring if critical infrastructure.. 3% of 10t is 300b a year saved pays for tax cuts ish .. Americans not poorerish after tax.. 50 yr bonds at 3% then begin pivoting? Thinking this for a month or so.. coming together.

If you haven’t heard Dalios thought on what the usa needs to do economically fiscally etc recently this is good.

Unfortunately I don’t have any good ideas here. thinking about usa steel co’s for the first time, maybe ever. Steel being part of a long term onshoring trend. The usa doesn’t want to depend too much on others for critical resources anymore? If this and similar ideas are enduring certainly there’s some opportunity here. How long will the tariffs last? How much operating leverage is involved and for which companies?

Not that anyone cares but I still don’t believe it. My question really was about the would Europe send 150b part? So China is on the other side of Mexico. They have fought for whatever 15% of southern Mexico and control it.. the usa has spent 150b giving weapons etc to Mexico and we ask Europe to send 150b to Mexico and they do? Then we ask them to continue to send 50b a year indefinitely after three years and they do with no end in sight? Also there’s plenty of evidence that usa has been encroaching closer and closer to chinas borders and they’ve been complaining about it for decades etc. Again pretty sure they assume we can deal with it from the get go. of course the above assumes Mexico has no protection agreements w anybody… not going to attempt a perfect analogy. Europe wouldn’t send us money, they’d help us if it escalated beyond this, like direct war. Also sweet, seriously end the adhominem attacks against everyone, I don’t know if you’re 6’5” 250 or what but where I’m from you would not last. I come here to hear thoughtful intelligent people make reasoned arguments, which you do, laced with constant invective. Are you capable of making your points without attacking the individual or is that your psychic payoff? Do you speak this way to peoples faces? Can we please elevate this board beyond the self control of a Reddit thread? We are better than this.

I can’t prove it but It’s probably true… most coffees are high in toxins and or mold. This is the majority of the problem. It’s a it’s not natural problem it’s a function of what’s changed since evolutionary times. What happens if you drink mold and toxins 2-3 x a day for decades to your brain? Same for red meat studies.. they don’t use or control for lifelong grass fed meat eaters. Grass fed meat is 3or4/1 omega 3/6 ratio non grass fed beef/lamb is the exact opposite. High omega 6 low omega 3 diets cause inflammation.. if you cause mild inflammation regularly for years what happens? Also grass fed meats are leaner significantly.

Not sure your point about bases. Seems a question of a different sort vs should america pay 100s of billions to help non nato countries in or near Europe. im with Gregmal, why are we paying anything? Another question is, depending on what Europe does what should we do? That’s much harder. I’ve spent the last day trying to think of a analogically similar situation where the usa has some border countries fighting each other and Europe gives one of them 100bs and can’t think of any but maybe I’m not creative enough. Pretty sure Europe and Europeans would just assume we can handle it.

Ya I guess I’d wear a suit if everyone did and it was the president and in a country that expects it but I’d also be tolerant to a president with equal title whos standards are different and who’s been in a existential life threatening crisis for years. I certainly wouldn’t have been so shortsighted ans been the guy who couldn’t control his own disgust response and reflect on the matter when so much is at stake.

I had to go down to 1/8-1/4 cup vodka mixed no later than 1pm to notice no effect on sleep. 1/4 with meal 1/8 without and only on non workout days.. post workout the effects on sleep is worse. Day drinking is healthier. Doesn’t seem like much but over time your tolerance goes down and I still get a buzz. Little anecdotal tidbit.. the healthier you body is.. your desire for any drink diminishes automatically.

My best guess is that trump wanted a deal and to get recompense secured first. Once that’s done.. and not before.. he can figure out a way to provide security, he’ll have to say “here’s x security” to the public… it needs to seem weak/in putins favor. The non disclosed deal will be stronger. This allows Putin to save face and project a win. Putins ego won’t allow a deal to be done where he doesn’t look like the victor. This means everyone will think it’s a weak deal and hate on trump however the teeth will be shown by lack of future problems of the same sort. It’ll be shown nearer term in the form of weapons and or other countries militaries moving into post war Ukraine territories. Protections. The future undisclosed actual plan will cost usa money.. needs a deal first. Trump doesn’t and shouldn’t disclose all cards. The seemingly total openness and massive media involved day to day gives deflection/framing/cover for actual strategies in general. Creates a veneer of confusion. Lastly, I hate suits, they are costumes, if someone treats me differently without one that’s on them. It’s like the diamond for marriage nonsense or the 3 months pay for the ring nonsense.

I’m not maga, just want the deficit at 3% if gdp and wars to end. However your comment is premature, also, you’re assuming goals that aren’t goals. I’ll be looking at results over time and not much else. Not temporary feelings. All the haters need to ask themselves now, what if anything would they consider a win. Write it down. Look at it in a couple years. There will be some and of course there won’t be because different goals.

See below. The problem is insofar as we know is multi faceted. Caffeine works better after adenosine levels have come down. Also sleep studies show some correlations with better sleep if you wait 90 minutes. There’s strong evidence that drinking more than two shots espresso equivalent for an average male affects sleep quality. Also very strong evidence that drinking within 12 hours of sleep time does as well. The closer to sleep time of course it’s non linearly worse. I’ve been focused on optimizing sleep for about a year now… love espresso so had to get it dialed. anecdotally, I’ve found the above true. Also it helped reduce sluggishness later in the day. Also most have a habit of drinking when they wake and then needed more and they just are horribly out of rhythm but don’t know different. I have Brian Johnson’s nutty putty pudding recipe upon waking (with the nuts on the side so it’s a smoothie) and a tbsp of high polyphenol olive oil and w protein added and feel great. Double shot 90 minutes after waking. No more caffeine. Adenosine levels follow a natural cycle throughout the day and night, primarily influenced by sleep and wakefulness. Here’s how adenosine levels change during sleep and after waking: 1. Adenosine Levels During Sleep: • Throughout the night, adenosine levels gradually increase as a byproduct of brain activity and cellular processes. This buildup of adenosine is thought to promote sleepiness and the need for rest. • The more deeply you sleep, the higher the adenosine levels become. The longer the sleep period, the greater the adenosine buildup, which contributes to the feeling of “sleep debt” that needs to be recovered. 2. Adenosine Levels 1–2 Hours After Waking: • After waking, adenosine levels begin to decrease because the body starts using energy and processing the byproducts of the previous day’s brain activity. • 1 hour after waking: Adenosine levels are still relatively high but beginning to drop. You might still feel some sleepiness or grogginess at this point. • 2 hours after waking: Adenosine levels continue to decline and you’ll generally feel more alert, as the body’s natural wakefulness processes ramp up. By this point, your body has likely cleared a significant portion of adenosine, and the sleep inertia (grogginess) begins to dissipate. Drinking caffeine during the early stages of waking (especially within the first 30–60 minutes) may not have as potent an effect since adenosine levels are still relatively high. However, waiting a bit longer (like 90 minutes or so) allows adenosine levels to decrease, and this can make the caffeine more effective at enhancing alertness.

You want to find coffees 3rd party tested for toxins and mold. Costs more. Many coffee packed with anti nutrients. also you need to wait at least 1 hour after waking to drink it ideally 90 minutes. Limit to double shot espresso caffeine equivalent. Has to do with adenosine levels and actually benefitting from it. don’t drink any caffeine for 12 hours before bed, proven to disrupt deep sleep cycles.