rb
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Everything posted by rb
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It's true that earnings at Mid-American are up a lot. But Berkshire also dropped a lot of capital into Mid-American.
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Brookfield Asset Management / Infrastructure Privatization
rb replied to EricSchleien's topic in General Discussion
What's wrong with 407? -
Brexit, Trump, and now Italy wants to exit EU?
rb replied to muscleman's topic in General Discussion
Isn't it like 5 am in Denmark? Cheers, Al At this point is easier to just stay up ;D -
So are David Cheriton, Jeffrey Skoll, the late Louis B. Mayer, among many others. Don't mess with the great white north :)
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So basically the markets under performed WB's view 16 years ago since they did 6% with the help of rates going lower and margins going up a lot. But then he probably didn't anticipate a massive levering up and a financial crisis either.
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In Canada you have to use weighted average cost.
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Buffett's Berkshire takes stakes in four major airlines
rb replied to KCLarkin's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-delta-air-union-contract-idUSKBN13Q50C?il=0 -
It says in the article. It's foreign owned if the owners don't reside in Canada.
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For what it's worth http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-foreign-ownership-report-1.3874515
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OPEC Agrees on Oil Output Cuts in Drive to End Record Glut
rb replied to AzCactus's topic in General Discussion
I think that the optimism may be a bit overdone. That's what? A little more than 1.2 M bbls per day? US and Canada can probably fill that in no time. And that's assuming that OPEC members won't cheat. -
Sure as I've said, do with him as you wish.
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When I see this phrase, I think of this scene from Utopia. This 2 minute scene--so beautiful in such an unusual way--was enough to persuade me to watch the entire show. :) Brilliant scene. I may watch some myself. :)
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I predict you're wrong. Bieber is Canadian. But whatever. Us Canadians are just glad he moved to the US. He's your problem now. Make with him what you wish.
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More likely people from the board or some arbitrageur. Any serious player moving volume would do it on the TSX.
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FWIW, Canada already has this system, essentially. The obvious downside for the USA is it removes one degree of checks and balances. RE: "vote based on the leader's stated positions". It would be interesting seeing how this would work in practice, certainly better than disenfranchising all the poor people. (Why the heck don't the rich understand that if you constantly and persistently abuse all the poor people, they will shoot you. Like, dead. Is it really that hard a concept to understand? Do they really have this intense desire to replicate the French and English Revolutions? Those things don't end up well for anyone.) It would be very nice if there were some way to this sort of "stated position" vote as an adaptive test, so each question refine which candidate best represented people's positions. I think both Republicans and Democrats would be horrified by the outcome (because their stated positions probably wouldn't actually be popular enough to win elections), but it would certainly be an interesting experiment to try. One interesting result might be that you could get, for instance, an anti-spending party aligned with progressive social values. Of course, the biggest challenge here, like any polling, would be figuring out the questions. It's clear from numerous referendums that, when it comes to politics, politicians will deliberately chose confusing questions in cases where, with a clear question, the electorate would be likely to vote against the politicians' desires. So, there would have to be a good way to ensure that the questions actually made sense to a normal person. Well not exactly correct. In Canada (and the UK - same system) the PM would be elected by the House, no senate. It's also a first past the post election but more correlated with the popular vote because the districts are based heavily on population numbers. There are also no-confidence votes that would trigger elections. So for example if you cannot pass a budget in Canada unlike in the US that would trigger an election. Give it to the voters to sort it out. There are other features but that's the short version. As for checks and balances in the US. Oh Please! Darrell Issa and Jason Chaffetz are more intimate with Obama's colon than his proctologist. When it looked like Hillary was going to be elected they were preparing years of investigations. Now that Trump (a president with maybe the most conflicts of interest in history) gets elected and they're good. No need to oversee anything. On the rich abusing the poor I think it's this way because they just can't help themselves. But I don't know, the US may just be different. If people were acting in their interest places like California, Massachusetts, New York and New Jersey would be Republican strongholds and places like Arkansas, Kansas, Kentucky, and South Carolina would be heavily Democrat. But obviously that's not how it shakes out.
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Thanks for the link. I really like the site. Looking at the charts one thing is clear: It really, really sucked being an equity investor in the 1970s!
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Wise words to live by! However, I'll indulge in a bit of macro since it's my wheelhouse. I'd say that we're not missing anything. What's happened since the election is very consistent with what you'd expect to happen in an economy that is somewhere in the neighborhood of full employment and is expecting to see a large fiscal stimulus package. The market moves themselves haven't been that large but they've been very quick. What's also changed is a lot of the commentary. Considering the environment we're in this could be a big case of buy the headline sell the news. The markets are basically pricing up front in a stimulus package coming in. But no one knows what the package is or whether it will be a meaningful package. With these things the devil's always in the details.
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I don't have data to the opposite by that stat looks wrong. If so many condos went to speculators and investors everyone would know it. You wouldn't need to look for a source.
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Buffett's Berkshire takes stakes in four major airlines
rb replied to KCLarkin's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
I don't think that pilot costs are a very high percentage of the overall costs. Then all you need a couple of accidents to put a lid on that idea. Also we went down from 3-4 pilots to 2 pilots per plane and the economics of the industry didn't really change. I think if we're talking about mass transportation drones as the cure for airlines we're really grasping at straws. -
Buffett's Berkshire takes stakes in four major airlines
rb replied to KCLarkin's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Yea, the moment BRK starts investing in space travel technology is the moment I sell my BRK stock. -
It seems like there's a lot of cherry picking on the investment side of Fairfax. I have a feeling this has a lot to do with the fact hat we really like Prem. I like Prem too. But we can't just look at the parts of the investment side that we like and ignore the others. Yes, they've done well with the bonds. But in the investment side wasn't just bond there were the equities and all the hedges too. The fact is that on the investment side the strategy was very incoherent for a while. IS FFH a bond manager? Is it a macro shop? A while back we had the big three. What happened to the big three? A while back the hedges were warranted I would expect because the view because that the market was overvalued. Now after the market doubles (give or take) we don't need the hedges because of Donald Trump and the market is cheap? No matter what you believe about politics don't tell me that Donald Trump is a 300-400% value factor. Not to mention that the type of equity investments FFH makes are hardly tightly correlated to the S&P so the hedges are not so effective. All this adds up to make FFH a pretty black box on the investment side. We have no clue about the investment strategy. If you ask me about BRK's investment strategy I can articulate it pretty clearly. But I can't say much about FFH strategy aside from in Prem we trust. They could turn around and do another brilliant CDS trade or another hedging debacle. But how is one supposed to price the equity in such an environment. And why should they have a multiple close to BRK when BRK outperformed them like crazy despite their size? I think it is an identity crisis indeed and they need to figure out where they stand and explain that beyond well... Trump or Modi.
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+1. I don't understand why a business is so different if it's public as opposed to private. FFH's investment portfolio is inferior to BRK's. At this point you rely on underwriting to make lots of money. But what if underwriting weakens going forward as i believe it's likely to do? Then what? Also you don't have 1,100 in investments per share when 430 is cash and 90 is equity hedged (i.e. Cash).
