treasurehunt

Milton now up to Category 5! I hope it weakens before landfall and spares the more populated areas in Florida.

My biggest buy in the last three months is PROSY (2% of portfolio). Second biggest is HQI (1% of portfolio).

The Economist has jumped on the solar bandwagon with both feet. They are predicting a future (some decades out) of very cheap electricity, quite the opposite of an electricity crisis. I think the articles are behind a paywall, unfortunately. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/06/20/the-exponential-growth-of-solar-power-will-change-the-world https://www.economist.com/interactive/essay/2024/06/20/solar-power-is-going-to-be-huge The Economist doesn't really address seasonal fluctuations or problems with long duration storage. On the other hand, solar electricity production is only 6% of total global electricity production, so there is some time to solve these issues.

Aren't you ignoring the role of batteries here? CAISO has over 10GW/40GWh of battery storage. That should help a lot with handling the deeper duck curve, right? I don't see why load shedding will be necessary. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2024/04/30/california-batteries-dominate-evening-grid-with-10-gw-40-gwh-of-capacity/

Thanks. Lots of great information in the prospectus on the non-life insurance market in India and on Digit itself.

I don't see how it's just arithmetic, since there is no free flow of goods and labor across national boundaries and the prices of goods and services at market exchange rates vary widely across countries. Can you explain your thinking? Also, how about Canada for another counterexample, albeit not as dramatic as Japan? In the 15 years from May 8, 2009 to May 8, 2024 the Loonie has depreciated from 0.87 USD to 0.73 USD. But inflation in Canada was slightly less than in the US (39% vs 46% according to ChatGPT).

Is there good statistical evidence for this? For instance, 15 years ago one US dollar was worth about 95 Japanese yen. Today it is worth over 150. During that period, inflation in Japan was much lower than in the US. Obviously even over long periods, factors other than inflation can be very significant.

If India's real GDP can grow at 6.5% and inflation is at 4.5%, the nominal GDP growth rate will be roughly 11%. This level of nominal GDP growth can sustain fairly high fiscal deficits without increasing the debt to GDP ratio, right?

Here's some more anecdata for what it's worth. I got my PhD some 25 years ago but never went into academia. Some of my colleagues did. I also know quite a few school teachers here in California. Not one of them is leading what I'd consider a cushy life while making tons of money. Some might be in great shape when they retire, with generous pensions. I, on the other hand, managed to retire at 45 thanks largely to stock options from my tech company employer. All I know is, if some kid were to ask me "What line of work should I go into where I'll have an easy life and make a lot of money?" I sure won't be saying "Teaching, my son! That's the golden ticket!".

Claiming that OpenAI received capital to serve humanity doesn't sound farfetched to me. OpenAI was founded in 2015 as a nonprofit. Their website says their mission "is to ensure that artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity."

Also, premiums earned for 2023: Geico - 39,264 & Progressive - 58,664. Stunning, considering that premiums earned were pretty even as recently as 2019.

Yes, you are right that "flaw" is probably not the right word. I am not convinced that completely free trade between two countries with widely different standards of living will benefit both, but then again I haven't thought very deeply about this. It is still the morally right thing to do in most cases, I think.

The flaw I see is that China is not content being at the bottom of the value chain. They might start with assembling a product, but pretty soon they will be designing, manufacturing and selling their own branded products that compete with the original product. The IPhone has withstood this kind of competition well, but that is perhaps an exception.

I agree for the most part. I haven't touched any of the Berkshire I hold in taxable accounts. And the stock is still 23% of my portfolio.

Me too. I have sold about 15% of my BRK.B position in the last few months.