KJP

This seems to be already happening. For example, YTD on a few names familiar to CoBF: Charter +14% IAC +16% SNC Lavalin: +19% All beat up last year with an additional selloff near year end, now bouncing back.

pre-tax, USD: 2022: -15% Significant losers: Altice, Charter, American Outdoor Brands, IDT, IES Holdings, Leatt, SNC-Lavalin, Turning Point Brands, Comcast, IAC, LICT Corp. Based on that list, I'm surprised the results weren't even worse. My winners were mostly buyouts/take privates: Swedish Match, Hill International, Advant-e I still hold most of my 2022 losers -- we'll see how they perform in 2023. Historical 2021: 11% 2020: 14% 2019: 31% 2018: 11% 2017: 10% 2016: 22%

MSG Entertainment

How is there going to be enough liquidity in BTC to do that? What portion of BTC is effectively locked away with long-term holders? Is the available "float" sufficient to support the very high transaction volumes that you envision? If there's anything to Gresham's Law, it seems to weigh against the future you envision. I believe US deficits currently address this issue by providing dollars to the world that can then be used globally for transactions. It would be interesting to see this system try to function if the transactional base was deflating (as may be the case in a future with Bitcoin as the transactional medium) versus inflating (as is the case today with USD when the US is in deficit).

You can see historical numbers for Germany here: https://de.usmortality.com/deaths/excess-yearly-cumulative and https://de.usmortality.com/deaths/weekly The chart at the first link shows deaths around normal until late 2020 (big deviation appears to begin in November), then fairly close to normal again until fall 2021 (deviation appears to begin in October) and at or above the top end of normal throughout 2022, with a significant move above normal beginning in September and on pace to exceed 2021 (and any other recent year). You can also see this in the shape of the line curves for 2020 - 2022 in the second link. You filter the data by age. There are no excess deaths in the 0-29 group in 2022.

IAC

Altria

I sold very close to PM's offer price. So, it seems to me that either PM gets enough to squeeze out at very close to the price I received or it doesn't, in which case I expect an opportunity to buy back in at a better price than today. I'm doing this in a non-taxable account; if it was in a taxable account, I would have held. I must acknowledge that I have sometimes been wrong about the immediate share price movement in response to a failed takeover/squeeze out, so I can't contend that my reasoning is foolproof.

Swedish Match

That's probably fair, but you will find that in most of the areas you mentioned, e.g., Wayne. In any event, LMSD, particularly the parts closer to the city like Merion and Penn Wynne, is quite overcrowded. One area you might add to your list is Lower Gwynedd. It's in Wissahickon SD, which isn't as lauded as Tredyffrin, Radnor, or LMSD but I know parents that have moved there from LMSD and prefer it. Newtown/Bucks County also has a much different feel than the Main Line. Much more open space, orchards, etc. And Doylestown and New Hope/Lambertville are nice options as far as those size towns go. If you wanted a similar feel but west of the city, there are areas (i) between Newtown Square and West Chester, and (ii) northwest of Rt. 202 around Methacton and Worcester that have a similar feel. They are probably a 1.25 hour (at least) commute into the city if that matters.

The folks in Lower Merion SD are aghast they didn't make the list.

IAC

It's been said here, but the price of this particular bond is not set by buying and selling in a liquid marketplace. In theory, if the price is off of what it otherwise would be, you could engage in some type of arbitrage with a publicly traded security and continue to do it until the system broke (or the government sold nothing but I-bonds) or re-sell the security at a higher price. But the quantity restrictions by buyer type and amount prevent and that, and non-transferability prevents black markets from arising to adjust the price. That's what creates the possibility of having a security that, to use efficient markets jargon, is perpetually and openly beyond the risk/reward frontier. (Also an example of why price caps typically require forced rationing or create shortages.)

Are there potentially viable alternative chemistries that use substantially less nickel? Or do nearly all reasonable scenarios require substantially more nickel (and I assume cobalt) production?

MSG Entertainment and Clipper Realty

My understanding is that is what FedNow is intended to become: https://www.frbservices.org/financial-services/fednow/about.html Note that FedNow's architecture appears to entrench current US financial institutions rather than displace them.

Will those surpluses continue, or will Treasury return to deficits now that peak tax season is over?

Swedish Match accepts PM buyout offer at 106 SEK/share: https://www.wsj.com/articles/swedish-match-agrees-to-16-billion-takeover-by-philip-morris-11652252817 Is there a strategic buyer who could come in with a topping bid? BAT: No. I believe a transaction would impossible for BAT, because SWMA and BAT are an oral nicotine duopoly in Scandinavia. Altria: Given on! and Zyn's positions in the US nicotine pouch market, would this make sense and could it get by US antitrust regulators? Japan Tobacco: Don't know enough about them Imperial Brands: Don't know enough about them, but a quick look at the balance sheet suggests they likely the capacity to do it. As for non-strategics, is a heavily regulated industry like tobacco an area they want to get into? The businesses have great cash flow characteristics, so they can handle debt. And there are many who argue that nicotine pouches, in particular, ought to score very highly on ESG measures because they believed to be much, much healthier than cigarettes, so switching people over to them could save/improve many lives.

If I understand the question, I believe it's to make the numerator and denominator apples-to-apples. Typically, NOPAT includes depreciation. So a capital expenditure expense (albeit, a backward-looking historical one, rather than a cash one) is already embedded within NOPAT. Since the expense is embedded in and reduces NOPAT, it's also removed from the numerator via looking at net rather than gross CapEx. Put another way, "Net CapEx + change in working capital" is the amount of capital added to the business beyond the amount that NOPAT assumes (via its use of depreciation) the business consumes in steady state.

Yes, there is a dispute. I suspect PM wants to get out of the IQOS license, and if they can then they could piggyback off Swedish Match's distribution system in the US. Overall increased risk and negative for Altria, unless they can develop their own competing product. But I don't think PM wants Altria to distribute Zyn, because Zyn's biggest competitor is Altria's on!.

I think it's a good deal for PM either way but what are the distribution synergies in the US? I believe Altria has (at least for now) an exclusive US license to market IQOS in the US, so as long as that exclusive license is in place, I don't think they can get any distribution synergies via marketing IQOS and Zyn together.

Looks low to me as well. But I thought the same of HMHC and that went through.

Leatt Corp.

For a detailed explanation of the PMTA process and why it is impossible to comply with the deadlines in synthetic nicotine statute discussed above, see this letter to the FDA from the vaping lobby:

Here's part 2 in a series from Voss Capital sharing their view on the future of US new housing construction: https://vosscapital.substack.com/p/the-big-long-a-deep-dive-on-us-housing-755?s=r Based on their latest 13-F, Voss appears to be implementing their bullish take primarily through building products distributors/suppliers (BlueLinx, Griffon, Huttig), though they do have smaller long positions in a few homebuilders: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730145/000139834422003244/xslForm13F_X01/fp0072899_13fhr-table.xml A service, rather than product-supply, company with shareholder-aligned corporate governance and some exposure to Sunbelt new home construction (among other things) is IES Holdings: https://investors.ies-corporate.com/static-files/9ce45dda-60c5-4683-90fe-a72d59265b04