Pelagic

Ukraine hasn't received them yet, for a variety of reasons including training pilots and updating their radar's and electronics. Scheduled delivery is "early summer" so potentially within a month or so they should be arriving in Ukraine.

Iron ore miners. Take a look at CLF's chart from 2000-08 for instance, even post GFC into '12 you'd have been quite happy to have bought in the early 2000s and sold then. This is back before it became primarily a steel producer. A lot of this was of course due to the explosion in Chinese demand during that time period. Even the big players like BHP and VALE haven't gotten back to their highs during that period.

Are you thinking of LeetCode?

I bought it on Kindle a few days ago, about 30% through and its excellent so far.

I know Wendy's withdrew their plans after the negative feedback and some great memes but I think a lot of people are missing the reasoning why they thought about dynamic pricing in the first place. Take a look at the McDonald's app, you can usually save 20-50% on an order using it, especially if you're ordering for more than one person where you can get the buy a combo add another for $1 deals. Likewise, Taco Bell has some options on the app that you can't replicate for anywhere near the same price on the drive through menu. I think the plan Wendy's had in mind was offer dynamic pricing at the drive through and constant pricing (and deals) on the app in order to drive widespread app adoption, lower labor costs, and long term gradually phase out in store dining.

Speculation I've seen is troops would be deployed to the Ukraine/Belarus border to relieve Ukrainian units stationed there allowing them to fight in Eastern Ukraine. Seems unlikely though given all the levers available to Western nations that they remain hesitant to use like sending meaningful long range strike capabilities.

Interesting look at LNG prices adjusted for inflation. Yesterday's price was apparently the cheapest it has ever been. https://x.com/CelsiusEnergyFM/status/1757521351307350216?s=20

This is a fun site with interactive maps that have a ton of data https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/ Some highlights are the shear number of coal plants under construction in China and India, and check out all the gas lines transporting Russian gas through Ukraine still.

Estonia and Latvia are aware of the risk of limited incursions by Russia and the possible lack of political will to repel what to other NATO members is a relatively minor territorial loss. To that end, they're building fortifications right on their borders with Russia ready to defend every inch of territory, rather than employing a Cold War era defense in depth strategy. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/baltics-to-build-joint-fortifications-along-russian-belarus-borders https://www.politico.eu/article/latvia-lithuania-estonia-common-defense-zone-russia-border-security-concerns/

A sobering look at just how long real policy change can take.

While I wouldn't discount the ability of Ukrainian divers to pull off an operation to destroy the pipelines, a lot of people forget about the actual issues the Nord Stream line was having during the summer of 2022 before the explosions. Only one of the two Nord Stream lines was in use because there was only one functional compressor, and even that line was taken offline for maintenance a few times leading to some wild spikes in Euro gas futures in August. There was an available replacement that had been sent to Canada for maintenance but it was held up due to sanctions and was unlikely to ever be released given the war in Ukraine. My personal theory has always been that Russia blew up 3 out of the 4 pipes in an attempt to force Germany to approve transit on the undamaged and entirely functional Nord Stream 2 line. Russia figured the parts they had available for both Nord Stream 1 lines were failing or had failed and the line would be unviable soon anyways. Why not try to force Germany's hand by making one of the functional but unused Nord Stream 2 lines the only available option, with all the parts from the other, damaged, NS 2 line available as spares. Then sow as much disinfo as possible to confuse who did it. Volumes would be roughly equal or even a little more through NS2-B than what they were supplying in summer '22 through the single NS1 line and Russia expected prices to remain elevated a lot more so than they did. Reuters article from August 22 regarding compressor issues https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gazprom-says-nord-stream-1-pipeline-shut-three-days-end-aug-2022-08-19/ And then less than two weeks after the Nord Stream explosions, here's Putin saying oh by the way we can still send you guys gas through the one pipe that's left https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-moots-major-gas-hub-turkey-with-nord-stream-supplies-2022-10-12/

An interesting article on the Ukrainian drone boat attacks on Novorossiysk in August. Following the attacks on a Russian amphibious ship and tanker, western partners almost immediately responded warning Ukraine to knock it off, fearing it would jeopardize oil exports from Novorossiysk. However, the article makes the point that it seems to have had the intended effect in letting the Russians know that two can play at blockading commerce on the Black Sea and allowed Ukraine to establish its own export corridor. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2024/01/1/7435418/

There are other paths to victory that don't involve taking thousands of casualties assaulting fortified Russian positions in the Donbas and Southern Ukraine. Ukraine has been fairly successful targeting Russian naval assets on the Black Sea and has pushed the Russian Navy back from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, along with sinking numerous vessels. Targeting Russian shipping on the Black Sea with the various drone boats Ukraine has developed over the past couple years would cut off roughly 20% of Russia's oil exports as well as other exports like grain. The Russian Navy has had limited success stopping attacks on their own ships and simply doesn't have a large enough fleet on the Black Sea to protect shipping. A trade of resumed access to the Black Sea for Russian commercial vessels in exchange for captured territories is one possible route. I suspect however that the Biden admin and various European allies have heavily discouraged Ukraine from targeting Russian shipping on the Black Sea due to the impact it would have on global markets. The sole attack on a commercial vessel was an empty tanker that carried jet fuel for the Russian bases in Crimea.

Some great lines in this article from The Economist following the initial elections in October that dig into how the Peronist machine works. Is the takeaway for Peronists following yesterday's election that they need to re-think their strategy or that 1% of GDP just isn't enough to win? https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2023/10/23/argentinas-presidential-election-delivers-a-surprise-result

This is one of the best discussions on the current state of the war in Ukraine that I've heard. Both the interviewer and guest are very knowledgeable, and it leads to a high level discussion that's hard to find elsewhere.

I let my paid SA subscription expire a few months ago. A lot of the articles are very light on original analysis, for many it seems authors just go into a company's presentation and fluff that out into an article. Comments can occasionally be good, but overall it didn't seem worth paying for to me. Like you said, they've become very restrictive for free users even for basic things like quarterly reports that a lot of other websites provide in a free tier. The one thing I'll miss from SA is the way they present earnings call transcripts where you can play the audio at the same time you're reading the transcript. TIKR has transcripts and of course you can go to the companies site for the audio and presentation but the way SA did it was convenient, especially if you like to listen to a call in the background and then just cntr+f the transcript when you hear something interesting.

The craziest part about last nights attack on the airfield in Berdyansk is that the imminent approval and arrival into Ukraine of ATACMS missiles with cluster munitions has been talked about for the last month or so. Biden even stated that in his meeting with Zelensky a few weeks ago everything that was asked for was approved. And to top things off, the Berdyansk airfield was singled out as the prime target for this specific type of missile that was being approved - they distribute a number of sub-munitions to destroy soft skinned vehicles like trucks, aircraft, or helicopters. It remains to be seen whether the longer range single warhead version was approved which would be useful against hard targets like the Kerch bridge. And yet, with numerous twitter personas talking about this very specific use case and the possibility that Russia would move their helicopters and other assets from the airfield before the missiles arrived, Russia did not. It looks like they lost around a dozen helicopters and some other vehicles including air defense assets and personnel in the strike last night. Depending on how many missiles were provided just about any Russian base or logistics hub within about 150km of the front is now in range further complicating already strained Russia logistics. They'll also likely be used against Russian S-300 and 400 sites if they're in range.

True casualty numbers are always going to be kept close to the vest. My point is simply Ukrainian casualties this year are likely a lot lower than last, despite being on the offensive for the last few months. I don't think any serious analysts expected Ukraine to roll up the 500 mile front across Southern and Eastern Ukraine in one offensive. The goal for this offensive was fairly clear in that they wanted to sever the land bridge between Rostov on Don and Russian forces in Crimea. Sever the land bridge, knock out the Kerch straight bridge, and starve out Russian forces in Crimea and Southern Ukraine west of the divide, that's their broad strategy and has been since talks of a counter-offensive started. There were even quite a few good posts on it in this thread before the offensive started. If somebody was expecting Ukraine to launch a 2023 version of Operation Barbarossa and push the Russians back to Moscow I don't know what to say.

Something that should be pointed out with regard to Ukrainian military casualties is that the VAST majority of them happened last summer ('22) when Russia enjoyed a massive artillery advantage and was on the offensive in Eastern Ukraine. Russia was expending as many as 60k shells per day with 30k daily being average in May/June/July. Western donations of GMLRS and the subsequent targeting of Russian ammunition stockpiles put a stop to that volume of artillery use and brought shell expenditures down toward the level of around 10k per day or less. This year Ukraine has focused on employing what precision weapons it has to target Russian artillery and air defense assets so I'd expect Russian shell expenditures daily to be even lower. Grad (and TOS-1) salvos were a staple of the Russian offensive last year and they've been almost non-existent on the battlefield the last few months. 100k Ukrainian combat deaths seems to be in the ball park of correct, 500k is absurd and the people repeating it are simply spreading Russian disinformation. Or they're simply confusing casualties with deaths. It's worth stating the obvious that to get to their claim of 500k combat deaths you'd likely see 2-3 million combat related casualties which clearly isn't the case.

Some of the goals set by the Biden administration are quite ambitious, considering the US currently only has 7 operational wind turbines - 5 off RI and 2 as part of a test project off VA for a total of 42MW of installed capacity. Their base goal of 30GW of installed capacity by 2030 is incredibly ambitious given the lack of vessels in the US. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/09/15/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-new-actions-to-expand-u-s-offshore-wind-energy/ I almost wonder if their floating offshore wind shot, a program envisioned to design, test and ultimately produce floating offshore wind turbines isn't an end run around the Jones Act by the Biden administration. They likely recognize the Jones Act's impact on stymieing offshore wind installation but can't provide waivers or repeal parts of it for political reasons. However, if you're building the turbines on a floating base and can just tow them into position, maybe the ships with heavy lift cranes aren't necessary, eliminating the expense and wait time of Jones Act compliant vessels. In any case it will be interesting to see which portions of the admin's goals get met over the next decade or so.

Pretty good take here in the sense that various actions by Ukraine over the last few weeks/month have been enabling operations for this strike. Lots of videos out there of both the S-400 radar station being taken out a few weeks ago and HIMARs strikes on various mobile radar stations along the Black Sea coast in Russian occupied Kherson. https://x.com/general_ben/status/1701934174209221082?s=20

Dan Carlin's Wrath of the Khan's episodes are a bit more than the average podcast, like most of his other series in Hardcore History. I think that particular series is either 4 or 5 episodes, each 2 hours long or so. He explores some of the what ifs had the Mongols gotten into Europe, like would their horses that were adapted to the Eurasian steppe have been able to find sufficient forage to continue their rapid advance. European warfare at the time was also rather siege centric with defensive fortifications and siege warfare being the name of the game in many conflicts, could a smaller Mongol army enjoy success if forced into prolonged siege warfare. Just a few of the thought experiments he gets into that history will likely never know the answer to. In any case, I highly recommend his series, they bring a lot of life to the topics he covers.

Great episode of Odd Lots on Tractor Supply $TSCO and how they cultivate extremely knowledgeable staff. I've never been in one but sounds like a store I'd enjoy. The chicken swaps anecdote where TSCO's parking lot essentially becomes a local marketplace for hobby farmers was fascinating too.

Exactly. Furthermore, Ukraine has been using GMLRS to hunt Russian individual pieces of artillery for the last few months quite successfully. GMLRS and other smart artillery munitions provided by the west combined with reconnaissance drones have proven very effective against Russia's artillery (as have Ukrainian FPV drones). The idea that Russia maintains some massive advantage in terms of artillery capabilities has been wrong for at least 6 months, probably longer if you look at the logistical challenges Russia faced once western GMLRS started targeting their supply depots. Ukraine is also using precision strikes to target Russian air defense systems, I saw a stat where since May, Russia has lost more air defense systems than throughout the rest of the war combined. I suspect this is being done to allow close air support to strike with extended range JDAMs that they've received, which will pack more of a punch on fortified Russian positions than any of the artillery Ukraine has available.

Here's a fun one.