Pelagic

Ukraine has been operating HIMARs for two and a half years, I think they've figured out how to plug in the coordinates of static sites like ammunition dumps you can clearly see on Google or Yandex maps by now. The idea that western troops are there at every second holding their hand is laughable when you look at the volume of GMLRS strikes since they were provided in 2022. And if you think there's some massive capability barrier between using the same system for GMLRS and ATACMS, they've been operating ATACMs for over a year against sites in Russian occupied Ukraine. They're perfectly capable of using the system themselves.

Article by the WSJ that gets into the details of how Russia recruits and pays contract soldiers, as well as compensates their families. The war has been an economic boon for some of Russia's poorest regions it would seem, which is also why popular opposition to it from those regions is limited. And a seemingly effective means for the Russian state to transfer wealth from wealthy districts to poorer ones. https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-ukraine-war-military-death-pay-6cfe936e Archive version - https://archive.ph/wtrq3

Seems like Gaetz, Gabbard, and RFK Jr. are something of a political litmus test Trump is imposing on the senate. If he can get them through then it's a signal the senate is onboard for just about anything, especially during Trump's first 100 days. Allegedly Musk is threatening to fund primary challengers to Republicans who hold up nominations or other legislation, a threat that likely holds less weight against senators who might be up for re-election in 4 or 6 years, than house members.

This would have worked in the first 6 months of the war and should have been done then but almost all soldiers fighting for Russia in Ukraine currently are contract soldiers who are *usually* from the lowest socioeconomic rung of Russian society, signing up to fight for a few thousand dollars a month. You're just creating an even larger incentive to sign up with a defection bonus. And an even larger incentive for Russian commanders to throw their men into attacks they're unlikely to survive. Ukraine does pay out defection bonuses for those surrendering equipment, however Russia has gone to extreme lengths to target those who defected in order to deter it (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68337794). Russia has for practical purposes an almost unlimited capacity to send people from its poorest regions to fight in Ukraine and take casualties at current rates. And somewhat counterintuitively as their economy worsens, higher interest rates, cost of living increases etc. that capacity increases because the pool of potential recruits who need that $4,000 a month or so grows. And it's not clear that people in the more prosperous regions of Russia have a strong view on the deaths of their countrymen, especially since they're "volunteering" for service in Ukraine unlike as was the case during their invasion of Afghanistan which utilized conscripts where casualties were a major reason for their withdrawal. It's a tough position for Ukraine currently, and their best option is still the one that the West has sought to avoid all along, hit Russia in their pocketbook by targeting crude exports. Who knows, it's been primarily Biden who's discouraged long range strikes into Russia, maybe if the UK and France take the lead on things, that changes the calculus as they've been in favor of allowing them.

Yes, once you get them set up they're fairly easy to care for. I went from having a pool outside to having one on a screened in patio. The difference is night and day between the amount of work required. The screen is mainly intended to keep bugs out to make the patio enjoyable but it also keeps so much organic matter out of the pool that it requires maybe a quarter of the work my previous pool did. If that's an option then a definite yes, without the screen I'd say it's a toss up. In any case I'd recommend going a size larger on the pool pump than recommended for your pool and go with a quality automated cleaner. Between the two I basically only need to add tablets to a floater once a week and wash the filter every 3 months or so, which I was doing weekly with my previous pool. Most of the modern pumps have a dual power setting where you can run them on high 1 or 2 days a week for a full cleaning and then low the rest of the week for reduced electricity draw.

This is a pretty interesting piece on hurricanes that occurred before recorded history and some of the ways scientists analyze their impacts. https://www.americanscientist.org/article/uncovering-prehistoric-hurricane-activity

For Russia troops are fungible. 10,000 NKs on the border with Ukraine somewhere in Russia allows them to transfer troops to occupied Ukraine. Or as some are suspecting they'll employ them in an offensive against Ukrainian held positions in Kursk. Russian troops who volunteer to fight in Ukraine get paid around $4,000 a month which is part of the "allure" of joining the Russian military, as pay is significantly higher than what they can make elsewhere. And also why Russia has had some success recruiting non-Russians to join their military. I wonder if NK troops will be paid similarly or does that money just get kicked up to the NK regime. There's also been some mention of Russian contract soldiers who signed up to fight in Ukraine not receiving benefits when fighting in Kursk (Russia) and their families being denied the death benefits they would have normally received. No doubt Russia faces an ever growing manpower shortage but perhaps there's some more nuanced issues with regards to the specific terms of contract soldiers that they think NK troops might help alleviate.

Interesting read on a specific very high risk property on the beach in Sarasota, it's still there but more in the water than on land now post Milton. Article is from 2013 but has some rate breakdowns. https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/news/2013/05/28/a-residence-of-extremes/29178399007/?fbclid=IwY2xjawGDZbhleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHZR5dMS_qIoWaXYDD3DX4I8dE2uuW8-pfGq4WLm8jIufR0R7sgjxr9rrJw_aem_GpTTAgrFZc8bstQwvHEALg

One thing that most people outside Florida likely don't realize is that majority of the images of completely destroyed homes that are being shown in the media occurred as a result of tornados spawned by Milton on the East Coast of Florida, primarily in Martin and St. Lucie Counties. These are communities 150+ miles from where Milton made landfall that didn't expect more than strong winds and some rain that are now dealing with total losses. Like the storm surge from Helene that impacted communities much further south than landfall, the tornado threat from Milton affected almost the whole state.

I found two shows on Hulu to be fairly good. The Looming Tower which covers the US's battle with Al Qaeda through the 90s. And No Man's Land which is set during the Syrian Civil War with a group fighting Isis.

This is a pretty interesting video on the dark fleet tankers that enable Russian and Iranian crude exports. There are still some levers the west can pull if they want to tighten up sanctions against exports from these countries that would mainly target this fleet of ships and their owners. Also a twitter account mostly devoted to tracking them and highlights some of the ship to ship transfers between dark fleet ships and legal ships that happen at sea TankerTrackers

The EU already set a precedent for capricious and reactionary tax policy in 2022 with their windfall profit taxes on energy companies, so some discount is warranted to their North American peers. That they came for oil and gas companies in 2022 doesn't mean they won't go after other profitable companies, especially those with "lumpy" returns or what the EU deemed "supernormal". Just a hypothetical here but there's no reason to think pharmaceutical companies are safe from similar tax policy (in Hungary they aren't) where some years they generate significantly outsized returns due to a new drug coming to market. The PBR thread had a lot of similar discussion focusing on Brazil last year when PBR was trading at a 3 PE and investors thought Lula was going to appropriate most of their earnings with the takeaway a year+ later being that, like @Spekulatius said, everything is investable at a price. Just my own opinion but it seems like EU regulators have a goal of constraining corporate results within one standard deviation of what they view as average with the hope that their policies shift the majority of results to the positive side without understanding that those far right tail results are often what drives innovation. For those already in the system and earnings a decent but not excessive return, the EU system works, and they'll defend it. However, if you're planning on taking real risk in the hopes of capturing outsized returns it makes sense to do so elsewhere. A good breakdown on the 2022 windfall profit taxes https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/eu/eu-windfall-profits-taxes-oil-gas/

The article is paywalled so I'm not sure what specifics they get into, but one of the things DG is somewhat famous for in commercial real estate is simply opening a new store near an old one when the landlord for the existing store tries to raise rates or they want to update the store footprint, since they often operate in areas where the underlying real estate is inexpensive. Shuttered DGs, while not as prominent as say former Pizza Huts, are becoming a hallmark of rural America, often with a new DG open nearby. Agreed though, their model of competing where there are no competitors is attractive. Fascinating company to follow.

The US and other supporters of Ukraine have done a decent job curtailing Ukraine's ability to truly impact Russia's economy, hoping instead for a gradual weaking that forces them to withdraw from Ukraine. A complete Russian economic collapse is not in the world's interest even if Ukraine would like to take that route to hasten the end of the war. That management works the other way too and so long as Ukraine stays within the guidelines they'll continue to receive support. This happened today and is sort of inline with my above point. If Ukraine can strike ships transiting the Kerch Straight at will with domestically produced missiles, as it appears they did here, that would be like the US having the Mississippi River closed off for export. A meaningful percentage of Russia's non-oil exports flow through there out of the Sea of Azov, limiting those and other Russian exports, including oil, from Black Sea ports would substantially hamper Russia's economy. https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1826635124395696478

Any info released by Joby/Archer on what their costs to operate are and how that compares to a helicopter flying a similar route? I think Hybrid Air Vehicles design might be more practical for short regional mobility as it can carry significantly more passengers while remaining competitive on emissions and flight time. https://www.hybridairvehicles.com/airlander/airlander-10/mobility/

Generally, Russia has the option to simply not use assets against Ukraine and move them away from the front if it wants to preserve them. Any assets that are currently being used to target Ukraine or aid the Russian war effort are fair game. Specifically, while Ukraine hasn't downed any tu-160s yet, Russia has lost 3 tu-22s and a tu-95, similar in nature. And perhaps more to the heart of the matter regarding the specific strike against a base full of Su-34s, Russia has lost 31 Su-34s so it's clear that their loss doesn't have major strategic implications. It's also somewhat ironic the Biden admin engages in this high level analysis of specific targets that Ukraine can hit with US weapons while Russia utilizes North Korean ballistic missiles against Ukrainian cities, to say nothing of Iranian drones. Do you think the North Koreans have any input into what targets Russia can use their missiles on?

I realize it's a hypothetical but is that a capability Iraq had in 2003? It looks like in 2003 they had modified Scud-Bs which are somewhat similar in range to ATACMs as a tactical ballistic missiles with around 300km range, which they fired a couple of at Kuwait. Their long range cruise missiles program had around 1,000km range, well short of Diego Garcia range. In either case, Russia uses SU-34s in the conflict daily, these are hardly "strategic" assets both by virtue of their continued use and how close Russia was willing to place them to the front. If Ukraine was asking for permission to put an ATACMs through the hull of a SSBN perhaps you have a point in managing escalation but by virtue of them being continuously involved in the conflict they're on the board so to speak. More to the point though, Ukraine has managed to destroy actual strategic assets like the A-50s taken down a few months ago and it didn't lead to further escalation.

The only consolation is Russia has limited aerial refueling capacity and aircraft having to travel further allows for more time to track and potentially intercept them. Still, seems like a miss by the Biden admin that just prolongs the conflict. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/05/ukraine-had-a-chance-to-blow-up-russias-best-warplanes-on-the-tarmac-the-white-house-said-no-and-now-its-too-late/

A very in depth article by The WSJ on Ukraine's sea drone operations. Adding a mine laying capability to their USV's adds an interesting wrinkle should Ukraine decide to execute something like the Union's Anaconda plan during the Civil War by blockading the Kerch Straight and Black Sea ports. https://archive.ph/uGP59

A good podcast on some of the issues offshore wind has faced in the US. It's funny he mentions that they (Orsted) are generally supportive of the Jones Act but then throughout the episode lists a lot of issues with it, and how it contributes to higher costs here in the US. I suspect their support comes from the regulatory capture element that requires firms to invest a ton of capital to be compliant in the US making the threat of Orsted's European competitors coming in and challenging them fairly low.

Was just listening to this which outlines the plan the Trump admin would likely take to weaken Russia's economy. The meat and potatoes of it starts around 10:30. Basically when oil prices are high, Russia has money to burn and gets adventurous. Low prices shrink Russian budgets and limit their capacity to bother their neighbors. https://www.politico.eu/podcast/trumps-plan-to-end-the-ukraine-war-bankrupt-putins-regime/

Perhaps the funniest part of this whole saga is that there's probably more than a few poor suckers who top ticked GME back in 2021 and have been faithfully hodling since. They might get a chance to get out even tomorrow morning if after hours prices hold.

Without exploration wells being drilled any number attached to its size is just there to grab headlines. This is a really good article on a field discovered in the Gulf of Mexico almost 20 years ago that clearly holds a lot of oil but has for a variety of reasons, technology to drill it mainly, has not been developed yet. The Kaskida field or other ultra deepwater plays are probably a fairly good analogue to any discovery in Antarctica where the geology says there's oil, and in the GoM case an exploration well was drilled to prove that, but whether that oil ever gets brought to market is a function of technology, regulatory environment, and oil price. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/features/2024-05-03/bp-big-oil-return-to-the-gulf-of-mexico-remember-deepwater-horizon-spill?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTcxNTUwNDI4NCwiZXhwIjoxNzE2MTA5MDg0LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTQ1c1U1pEV1gyUFMwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI0NEMyQzc4RTVBMjQ0NjdDOTU5MDI0NjRBQjUwQ0U2MSJ9.dWooomsUHORJ0q5Z7q1ZjXxiQH-Zv5cy5XwrY2q7GQ0

An interesting article on the development of Ukraine's long range drone program. Looks like they've settled in on a standardized design even though there are a handful of other options out there and can start mass producing it now that they know it works. https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2024/05/13/7455462/

In general I think most countries involved in providing aid should take the approach that France does and not pre-announce or telegraph their intentions ahead of time, things just show up in Ukrainian hands. The initial small batch of cluster ATACMS last fall is a good example of this policy in action where they just showed up much to everyone's surprise and took out an S-400 battery and a dozen or so helicopters at an airbase in Donetsk. It's interesting though that the final straw for the Biden admin on providing long range ATACMS was Russia utilizing North Korean and Iranian missiles in Ukraine.