biaggio

I enjoyed listening to his latest book. Found some very useful concepts. It seems that sometimes he is just too smart i.e. all that algebra. in this posting. From his conclusion: "To conclude, if you are starting a career, move away from investment management and performance related lotteries as you will be competing with a swelling future spurious tail. Pick a less commoditized business or a niche where there is a small number of direct competitors. Or, if you stay in trading, become a market-maker." it seems that he is directing this to short term investors/traders rather than business owner types like folks here.

I used to like Mr Ackman. I am finding him annoying lately. With all due respect to him as he is way more capable than me, I think he should try a lower profile and not be so outspoken. He should let his performance do his talking. I don t see anything wrong with what BAM is doing, though I admit I would be annoyed too if I was a shareholder.

Yes. You both make sense to me.

http://greatinvestors.tv/video/francois-rochon-on-the-importance-of-an-investment-philosoph.html Enjoyed this video from Manual of ideas. Thought others here may like it as well.

Is the MKL meeting on Saturday afternoon?

last year there was a nice brunch at Borsheim- WEB + Mr Gates showed up a bit later and played some table tennis. I am not sure what they usually do on sunday but it seems weekend is over by mid day which gives you time to get back home

biaggio,... maybe you misunderstood me,... I'm still that outdated, that when it comes to books, I need to feel the real paper in my hands, where I can also make marks. Only Giofranchi is the cutting edge techno-freak when it comes to reading books. I signed up for audiobook this afternoon + listened to this book for 3 hrs this afternoon while driving kids around to their activities. Very much enjoyed listening to book especially as compared to listening to the crap that s on the radio. Berkshiremystery you may want to re consider audiobook- there is a good chance I keep the subscription after 30 day free trial is over.

Giofranco, thank you very much. No worries.

I actually downloaded Antifragile from Audible.com today for free with this promo link http://www.retailmenot.com/out/2466917 - I believe that the price was only $7.50 without the promo code. Also, if you live in the US, you can get many audio books from your local library. http://library2go.lib.overdrive.com/2C66D511-FD56-4E6C-BE28-025DB8AC4709/10/438/en/Default.htm is a good place to start since it is subscribed through many libraries and the selection is decent. alpha23 Thanks! Will give it a try

Gio, Berkshiremystery, where do you get your audiobooks? Download from internet? CD? I was surprised that audiobook for Antifragile was selling for significant premium vs kindle or paper version.

Thanks for bringing UNH up. UNH -not very sexy or popular these days -continued small progress every year -have held and followed for 20 years- one of my first hole punches- not a lot put in as I did not have much 20 years ago. Loaded up in 2008 downturn. 3rd largest holding next to FFH, ALS so I am very biased. -I expect it to be able to continue growing top line say 7-8% driven by demographics and small gains in market share. Has emphasized that it will not write insurance that is not profitable. Its also buying back a lot of shares ($3b last year on EV ~ $50b). Seems like a decent value @ ~ 10 x earnings. Expect 10-15% per year return. Would buy more at <$47 per share.

Graham: “if the stock does not give you 50% in 3 years, sell it - its most likely a value trap. Nice rule to deal with uncertainty”

If one wants to work on their temperament, Letters from a Stoic would be a great read. The great thing is that it is transferable to all parts of one's life. Have read Mark's book + agree as well.(also found it much easier to read)

Thank you valueInv, I have just purchased “Management Rewired”, and I will surely read it! Actually, I am well aware of the fact that stories might be dangerous and misleading. But stories are not history. I remember Mr. Rodriguez saying that at the beginning of his career he had the chance to ask Mr. Munger three things that would help him improve his skills as an investor the most. And Mr. Munger replied: “Study history, study history, study history”. Don’t study what historians say or write. Instead, study what the great minds of the past might still have to teach us. I mean, if you read Seneca, whose writings are still relevant after 2000 years, how faulty can your compass be? And, by the way, he not only was the greatest philosopher of ancient Rome, but also the richest man of his time! 8) giofranchi Gio, funny you should mention Seneca- I am just halfway reading the book "Letters from a Stoic" - apparently a classic english translation of the writings of Seneca. I don t normally read this type of book, but I am finding it useful to balance all the things that we worry about here and puts life in perspective.

You still gotta be smart enough though to figure out who the smart kids are and which of their work to copy as they are not likely to be perfect all the time. I know because I have copied some things (from guys here which are excellent, but also from guys like Berkowitz) that have not worked, but that's ok as its the nature of the beast. Been fun never the less. Live and learn.

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/video/2013/01/04/this_guy_turned_20k_into_2_million_you_can_too.html I thought this might be Eric. Only very few folks can do this. Agree with Sharper's view above.

I think WEB tried TA as well. The smart guys are the ones that realize that it does not work. Good to have another smart guy around.

Sears wants to build new retail, housing at St. Paul site http://www.bizjournals.com/twincities/morning_roundup/2013/01/sears-wants-to-build-new-retail.html?ana=yfcpc I would love to see more projects like this---get away from retail + competing against Target, Walmart etc---rent to them instead

Congratulations to all. Makes me feel like I need some Viagra or some other male enhancer. Mediocre ~+ 7% (probably holding too much cash ~40%)

Happy New year. Wish you all a healthy, happy and prosperous 2013. Thank you all for all the great posts/threads

Gio, always enjoy your posts. I struggle with the same thoughts. Professionally I am in the same position as you. Except I have been working for >20 years- up until most recent I have made the best investment one can make and that is in yourself and your family- now I am fortunate in being in the position of investing almost all the income that comes in. I struggle because I am closer to the end of my career + I am almost in the position where I don t really have to go to work (but I go because I enjoy it. Its great not having to go to work for the pay check)- so I don t want to do anything too stupid. I agree with your strategy of investing in owner operators (I am trying to do the same. I would be happy with a lumpy 10-15% return over the next decades). I think you are being to hard on yourself with the performance. You re looking at short term performance. As you know short term the market is a voting/popularity machine. If we re in the right companies I think it will show up in the next 3-5 years. Year to year we know that the market will fluctuate. I am mindful of macro issues, general market/business sentiment and how it may or may not effect our companies . I monitor VXX, VXO, and http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/) I know I am a very poor trader, and very poor at trying to time the market- despite this I still have the mindset to try at times My strategy going forward FWIW: -is to average into owner operators, great businesses over time- buy when I think they are undervalued, continue to hold unless they become grossly overvalued or I realize I have made a mistake. -keep a good chunk of cash at all times- that way I am happy when prices go down -prepare myself emotionally/psychologically for possible severe downward fluctuation in my holdings by focusing on the micro- i.e stay up to date on the companies, have an idea what they are worth - that way I have the courage + conviction to at least hold on thru the storms if not add in. Unfortunately I always feel better about adding in when the sun is shining- its only human nature - I keep this in mind + I find it helps. -I am mindful of position sizes- I would find it hard to add to position that is >25%- I would probably continue to hold if it was a great company/owner operator provided it was not grossly over valued. Today it seems the choices seem obvious i. cash -not a good thing to hold in the long term ii bonds/income producing products- grossly overvalued? iii real estate- may be a good area if you re willing to accept the hassles iv tangible assets like gold, silver - seems like there has been a lot of hype here in last few years + who knows what they will be worth v common stock- seems like a good thing to be in vi private business -good if you have the opportunity vii other things I have not thought of http://greatinvestors.tv/video/zeke-ashton-on-how-michael-burrys-advice-helped-him-become-a.html One needs to know what works for you. Its challenging and fun. Good luck to all

Have ordered but not read yet good interview by author on wealthtrack: http://myinvestingnotebook.blogspot.ca/2012/12/michael-mauboussin-on-wealthtrack.html

agree, not a good sign, but should one act?

Agree Farnam has a couple great blog sites. I read book this past summer- enjoyed it very much. Its an incredible story considering how women were viewed back in the day. They were not yet able to vote yet she became a very important player. She was obviously very smart and courageous (buying when everyone else was selling). Despite often being the only person able to buy or provide financing she tried to give her clients a deal i.e. she did not gouge them- her thinking was that they wanted them to remember that she helped them so that they would think of her later. Sadly I think there was some mental illness there- I think she took her frugalness a bit too far. I could be wrong but I thought this story would make a good movie as she certainly was an interesting and colorful character.

Employment level may be the thing to watch. Inflation not an issue until people are working and qualified to borrow. Low interest rates short and long until then. I like Dallo's concept on keeping interest rates below GDP growth in order to be able to grow out of various problems.