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Sharper, thanks for the response-I think it will help.

http://www.midasletter.com/index.php/eric-sprott-and-rick-rule-skewer-the-u-s-with-james-west-on-midas-letter-money/ Talk about outlook + opportunity for coming year. Rule calling for more volatility , likes uranium, gold/silver miners and if you have a sense of humor natural gas. Says that volatility is good as long as you use it + you don t let it ( ab)use you-which is dependent on experience. Some of the usual macro fear stuff.

Anyone here real familiar with these reserve estimates + how these 3rd part engineering firms come out with the estimate. When do they start using current low prices? Do they actually try to project what the price of nat gas will be in the future? I would be interested in buying reserves estimated with today's low prices at a discount.

Sharper is that valid even if their cash flow is decent i.e they are earning their interest payments? How about if they have relatively little debt? I don t know if there is such an animal out there.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/low-natural-gas-price-casts-doubt-on-proven-reserves/article2388590/ "Low natural gas price casts doubt on ‘proven’ reserves" I am looking at buying at discount to P+P 10. What do folks think here? Would that be a valid metric? Also interesting that KKR purchasing nat gas investment "KKR Natural Resources Acquires Barnett Shale and Arkoma Basin Properties From WPX Energy for $306 Million Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/news/12/04/2463678/kkr-natural-resources-acquires-barnett-shale-and-arkoma-basin-properties-from-wpx#ixzz1qv49xwlw http://www.benzinga.com/news/12/04/2463678/kkr-natural-resources-acquires-barnett-shale-and-arkoma-basin-properties-from-wpx

Are the different versions that much different? I just assumed they were basically the same. I read the original a couple years ago. If so will look forward to reading newer version.

if they get $2B for Lands End, along with their recent RE sales -they will have recieved more money than I anticipated. Any thoughts on the value for Craftsman, Diehard, other brands in general? I am hoping for a better balance sheet + getting rid of the red ink on the income statement.

southwestern Ontario

Good point.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70858/000122520810019732/xslF345X01/primary_doc.xml appears to have ~450000 shares. I'd like to see him have more of his skin in the game. 450,000 shares is like $4.5 million which is a lot less than his salary. I would feel better if there was some strategic or regulatory reason why he was not buying. It never occurred to me that this would be the case. I t scares me a bit that he might know how much is in the legal reserve but he is not wiling to risk some of his money especially how cheap the stock was.

I would like to see him buy some BAC stock. What do you guys think?

I also recently read an article about how analyst applied the recent US stress to European banks and European banks passed as well. So I am always take stress test results with a grain of salt. I am starting to think the same. In retrospect I am thinking that this is at least done to improve the confidence in the system. Get people feeling that things are improving, start buying, borrowing, making deals, etc One of the main thoughts I have on investing in BAC is the government's need + motivation to have BAC survive. BAC is the financial sysem with 1 out of 2 households doing business with BAC-if BAC does not thrive then the whole system is in trouble. US gov t whatever it has to do to make sure that big banks do well in future i.e tbtf

Here you have a view into his portfolio: http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001061768&HolderName=BAUPOST+GROUP+LLC%2FMA Keep in my mind Baupost invests in debt, real estate, and basically anything they can find good bargains in. So the equities on that web page only represent ~15% of their total assets depending on what their AUM is. I think AUM is between 20-25 billion, but don't quote me on that. Good point. Has ~ 30 million in Targacept of 3 billion portfolio which is very tiny compared to almost 30B in AUM So really ~0.1% I wonder why he would even bother?

If it was not for the cash burn then I can make sense of purchase which would a be buy at a discount to IV(cash) + get the pipeline for free. All their R&D is in phase II which would be high risk in my opinion. Maybe he knows something about some of these potential products. I think its a very small position ~ 1% for him.

bmichaud , Dalio paper makes sense to me. I wonder if others here have read it as the thread on it did not get many posts.

Thanks for posting. Enjoyed reading it. Funny line- ..."they usually set policies like blind men trying to cook on a hot stove, through a painful trial and error process in which the pain of their mistakes drives them away from the bad moves toward the right moves." Interesting take on the U.S fed -he seems to think that they made all the right moves. Compared U.S recently to Japan the last 20 years + argues that Japan has had poor result because they did not print enough money. I wonder if those here who are a fan of Richard Koo have read this paper + wonder what their thoughts are.

has anyone added to position? or is this strictly a hold? it seems that folks last year were estimating earnings power of at least $2 s at $10 still has a good margin of safety,no? (not as good as at $5)

I was reading on the recent stress tests on BAC: " the test parameters focused on the results of hypothetical economic conditions, rather than worst-case losses from its legal challenges" Is that true? I would have thought some sort of assumption or allocation would be made for the legal troubles...otherwise why even bother doing the stress test on BAC.

Got it, thanks for the reply. makes cents.

Eric, when you talk about gap I was thinking of the gap in valuation (price vs what it may be worth-though I understand it may be difficult to compare). http://www.gurufocus.com/compare.php?symbol=BAC -based on valuation the gap may be wider than those based on just market price. Is this a valid comparison? Should they be trading at a similar multiple to say TBV? If so perhaps there is even more price appreciation in the future.

gaf63 " it is associated gas" that makes sense to me if so low Nat gas prices could be here for a while

pey on TSE claims in recent conference call last week that 99% of their production is profitable at $1 per MCF (hard to believe?)

More store closings announced- http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sears-plans-to-close-62-additional-stores-2012-03-15 interesting- "Edward S. Lampert's hedge fund has stepped in to make sure vendors continue to supply Sears Holdings Corp. stores by assuming some of the risk of financial institutions that provide a form of insurance to the vendors." http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304692804577282090364006420.html mevsemt- You seem to have some special insight when it comes to SHLD- are you going to let us know when you're thinking of getting off this roller coaster ride (have enjoyed the last 90 days - I don t want to take a round trip to $30).

Thanks Val9000. Have often wondered what the batting (slugging) average was for folks here. I must say as time goes by I am more impressed + humbled by the performance of some of the folks here. Hope a little rubs off on the rest of us. It would be cool to track the performance going forward of the group think here.-would it be possible to have some sort of survey on an idea i.e buy or sell or no opinion. Then see how it works out. (Take for instance the RIM idea- I think it was a long thread because there were a lot of guys here that did not agree with RIM as a buy).

just finished reading Avner Mandleman's book on sleuthing stocks. He suggested that a good way to look for possible bottom in resource industry is to look at the capex of all the producers. Turn in price of commodity/industry to occur when capex decreases to less than depreciation charges. I dont know whats happening in nat gas market but it may be instructive to have a look.