biaggio

Agree with above. A good quote that I have saved on why to invest in FFH (which I don t know if it was in any of the posts you read): "a hedge fund manager makes money by taking 20% of the profits on the money he invests for his clients. An insurance business is almost the same model with two small differences: - an insurance company takes 100% of the profits on the money they invest - the customers of an insurance company never want to get their money back (as opposed to a hedge fund where ultimately you have to return the money to your investors). People hand their money over every month and pray they never get sick enough to warrant getting that money back. The insurance company gets to hold onto the money as long as possible and take all the profits it makes by investing that money. Insurance companies are enormous regulated hedge funds with much greater potential for immense profits." + Prem & Co have great track record with capital allocation/investment

"Microsoft has gotten much, much better over the years; a lot of their reputation really comes down to crappy third party drivers" I wonder why Microsoft has not done what Apple does-design the software + hardware together?

My point was that the inverse of this has already happened. The new fracking techniques have doubled the actual or potential gas reserves in the USA. :o >:( But what are the actual cost per MCF? I have read the argument that the cost of a lot of these unconventional NG companies is $6/MCF..If so then you would expect the supply at current prices to drop, no? Then again,the actual cost may decrease over time with further innovation.

Swizzled, I appreciate your various contributions to this board. Have often visited your blog site. Thanks. re nat gas company investments- I find the information in the monthly letters to shareholders from Peyto CEO very interesting and informative. Check them out at http://www.peyto.com/ The Nov letter is interesting in that he states that his company is not depending on higher nat gas prices to make money, as higher nat gas prices will lead to higher operating prices + decreased margins. In other words it may not be important to call the turn in price of nat gas...just look for the low cost producer selling at a discount to IV.

Write ups on desmairis + Power financial + Power Corp. Never saw these before. Original article written in summer of 2009 "Who Is The Warren Buffett Of Canada? Prem Watsa Of Fairfax Financial (FFH)? Or Paul Desmarais Of Power Corporation Of Canada (POW)?" http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=116068 "Buffett Loses to Desmarais as Power Exceeds Return" http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=am2tdSNHYLK4

http://www.manualofideas.com/files/content/arthur_rock_strategy_vs_tactics.pdf Old article thanks to manualofideas written by Arthur Rock who was Henry Singleton's major financial backer. Stresses importance of having the right management/jockey.

" Its never easy and remember history is always written by the winners never the losers ." Great quote! Yet it is interesting that there is more to learn from the "losers" or mistakes that are made(hopefully by others), in my opinion. Great thread.

Packer is this mathematically possible? I think I know what you re trying to say, but 99% of us can t be above average. I agree that if you have the right temperament + follow the right strategy then it is possible.

You guys are too hard on yourself. Those examples don t sound like mistakes to me. Hindsight is always 20/20. I would be too embarassed + there would be too many to describe. My mistakes usually involve either buying before I have done my full work up (I am going to try a check list, as described in other posts to prevent this) and/or buying something that I think I understand but really don t. They are dumb trades(the ones I have done, not yours) because I know better, but I did it anyways.(probably because I let the emotion of greed or fear get the better of me)

Sports cards + memorabilia

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1310067/000119312510263486/d10q.htm Earnings out (10Q) this am.

I think they are short term buyers. They are looking for" short term pop."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/your-business/business-categories/financial-management/the-accidental-millionaire/article1793156/ "A basket full of seeds or roots is much more valuable than the same basket full of money. The money can go away, but with the seeds and roots, you can grow them and survive with them."

Thanks saumil, just had a quick peak, look forward to reading site. Internet is amazing

It is hard to bet against him. It is probably wise not to fight the fed. I liked Teppers interview on CNBC- he is taking the government's word that they will do what they say they are going to go -I assume inflate the market, etc with QE2 Nevertheless I am comfortable holding FFH + having an unpopular strategy for a portion of my portfolio. Time will tell. It is more fun having a stake in this game and watching how things play out.

"I can still invest in a company even if I don't like the CEO - mabye..." I don think it is a matter of liking the CEO. Is it wise to buy, if you don t trust him? What did WEB say, that he looks for integrity + energy/ability with integrity being the most important because if the CEO don t have integrity , then his energy/ability will kill you. SB is very able. Will he make money with you or off you that is the question. What do others think?

Shalab, agree with your post. I think you want to put your money in the company that is going to do well in the future. You can use history to help. But ultimately you have to think what the business will look like in 10 years + the price you re paying for it. Both LUK + BRK will do well (because they are led by great leaders/capital allocators), but because of market cap I would think that doubling LUK will be a higher probability? But who knows. No sure bets. Agree you can t just look at the price movement on a chart. "It is pretty clear where the puck has been though "-I read that young Gretzky would watch a game + would draw on paper where the puck was as the game was going on. Probably a good idea to look at the patterns in the past to improve your chances of anticipating what the future will be like.

Pretty good thanks for posting...I have wanted to read that Forbes issue you have posted

Go where the puck is going to be not where it has been? LUK is smaller so you would think it will be able to grow faster than BRK which is huge. I own both.

"Looks like Bruce has sold about 10% of his holding, which further confirms that FUR is moving closer towards fair value." Good to see Ashner buying ~200,000 shares around $12.25 http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?symbol=FUR Selling at ~book value. I am thinking it may have more to run. I am hoping to hold until it is obviously overvalued.

UNCOMMONPROFITS, "People interested in ag plays however, might take a look at VFF (Village farms International) - trades on TSX. " You appear to be in good company liking this company, it appears that Tim Mcelvaine has bought some. Check out his September shareholder's report: http://mcelvaine.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/2010-We-are-here-30Sep.pdf

"There are a great number of cases where there have been huge sudden run-ups in my "value" holdings, and I'm extremely tempted to sell and then re-enter. I have generally resisted the temptation, telling myself to wait until they approach my estimate of intrinsic value." Doc75,I have had the same experience. I am thinking that if it is a great business that you bought at a good price, one should just hold (I am thinking for possibly forever, unless you find another great business at an even bigger discount, but I think this is rare.). Especially if there are taxes to be paid. I am thinking for jockey stocks like FFH, LUK, BRK, etc I would hold until they are way overvalued. For good business at a great price, I am thinking I should trade into a better value if it becomes available especially if there are no taxes (inside RRSP or IRA). For "cigar butt" types of companies-I have been avoiding these, but would definetly sell if got big run up. If it is a cyclical company I would sell. My issue(just thinking out loud) is how confident am i with regards my estimation of the quality of the business + its valuation. I guess we should do it when it is really obvious ie a fat pitch. Agree that you re probably screwed either way,unless it is obvious. What are others thoughts?

Thanks for the article. "I make plenty of mistakes…That's part of the game. You just got to make sure that the right things overcome the wrong ones."

"I'm not disagreeing that the 130 IQ can't beat the 160, but I wouldn't say that an IQ of 130 is "ordinary." Doesn't that put someone in the top 2-3% of intelligence?" you probably know 100 is average + 150 is a genius. but there are people who have incredible IQ's that do not do well because they lack other qualities-attitude, temperament, humility, people skills etc...this was well described in Malcom Gladwell's book Outliers all things being equal I would want as much intelligence as possible

Francis Chou: Canadian Investing Guru http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=109914 Good article on Mr Chou...some good lines I have not heard of like-"he likes to buy shares in what he jokingly refers to as CRAP (Cannot Realize A Profit) companies. Chou says the market is prone to overreacting when stocks are heading for the toilet, so failing companies are often irrationally valued for less than they would be worth if they liquidated their assets."