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biaggio

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Everything posted by biaggio

  1. -hopefully this will provide us with irrational market/prices. -crazy that you have computers buying just because other computers are buying. -then when we have a flash crash, we reimburse them for losses, how is that fair.
  2. Thanks for the update. Own them as well but only for the past year Concern re age of founders--there must be a considerable team of people that have worked with them for the past many years- i.e there has to be a number of people doing the due diligence on these acquisitions at LUK (or do they outsource) -there has to be qualified personel that have been trained by Cummings/Steinberg that can eventually take over?
  3. http://www.sys-con.com/node/1830407 "Peyto grew production 53% year over year or 32% per share since Q1 2010, while generating first quarter operating margins of 75%(1) and profit margins of 32%...Peyto's unwavering focus on cost control maintained all-in cash costs below $1.50/mcfe. The strong financial and operating performance resulted in an annualized 15% Return on Equity (ROE) and 13% Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)." I am impressed by all in cost of $1.50/mcfe. Seems that it will do well even if prices stay between $4 and $5. Probably fairly priced at just under $20 (= 10 x FFO or the value of their reserves discounted @10%). Anyone else follow or own this?
  4. biaggio

    MSFT

    http://www.businessinsider.com/whitney-tilson-presentation-2011-5#-1 Whitney Tilson likes MSFT for whatever that is worth. Presentation shows impressive dominance that MSFT still has. Outside my tiny circle of competence but enjoy reading this thread. Thanks.
  5. That's pretty sad. Obviously he loved his business or money (or both) too much, to the point that his own family didn t like him. I would be willing to bet that nobody like him. A lesson for all of us.
  6. you should see his reply to CNBC basically "Get the F... out of here" + then gave single finger peace sign.
  7. Mungerville, I think Bronco was being funny.
  8. biaggio

    LUK news

    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/96223/000009622311000013/lnc1stqtr2011form10q.htm recent 10Q
  9. biaggio

    FUR

    earnings out this am http://www.globenewswire.com/newsroom/news.html?d=220912 FFO Per Share Increased 19% to $0.44 Compared to First Quarter 2010 "We started 2011 with strong momentum. We have executed on $34.2 million of acquisitions and a number of our investments have realized full accretion or return of capital with gains. These activities have significantly contributed to a 19% increase in our year over year FFO per share," stated Michael L. Ashner, Winthrop's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "In addition, the Company further strengthened its capital structure, adding capacity to our credit facility and raising over $61 million of equity in the second quarter. Our expanded capital base and robust pipeline of opportunities will enable Winthrop to execute on our deep investing value strategy."
  10. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Frontier-Communications-bw-2424331352.html?x=0&.v=1 earnings out this am
  11. good post misterstockwell. reminds me of a quote I heard yesterday from one of my collegues: “Everyone has the power of greatness; not for fame, but greatness. Because greatness is determined by service.” – Dr. Martin Luther King, 1929-1968 You may not be curing cancer but serving the best way you know, non the less. The world would be a better place if we all did that. On that note I have to go to work.
  12. biaggio

    MSFT

    Eicopoly Thanks for the reply "Options are cheap when people are not fearful, and expensive when they panic." That makes sense. I am still having trouble believing that the value of the option would be more dear.-would people not be panicking and selling indiscreminately ? Price should decrease if there are more sellers? And would it matter that some time would pass, let us say ~ 1 year would pass so instead of 20 mo, expiry date would be in 8 months with price of common down to $54 from $65.
  13. biaggio

    MSFT

    Ericopoly, "$4.25 I paid for $65 strike calls" If you don t mind I have a very basic question (sorry it mind be dumb)- you pay $4.25 for the right to buy JNJ for $ 65. It s currently selling for $65.75. If in 1 year we have a correction or cash + say JNJ trades for $54, your re thinking that these options will not be much lower than $4.25? (I forgot was the expiry date 2 years from now?) Why would these options not be significantly lower especially if there is a lot of fear etc On the upside I can see the logic, as if JNJ trades for $90 then your option will be worth significantly more than $4.25 (closer to $25 which is sweet) Or are you thinking that at $54 you would use your cash holdings (the cash that you don t have to spend today because you are using options to control a certain # of JNJ shares) to buy the share outright. Sorry I am a novice. Find your strategy interesting. Appreciate you sharing your ideas with the board.
  14. interesting, I did not realize that float was one third that of BRK. yet Market caps $205 billion vs $15 B. FFH float less than it could be due to the soft market (as I am told in relation to their statutory capital) Proportionate difference in market caps related to other businesses that BRK owns. (as others have suggested FFH needs to do the same). I think FFH is mildly undervalued. I would like to buy more, but I am anchored to my previous purchase prices +am hoping I can buy at closer to or under BV. (I think I am being really silly as I would plan to buy for 10+ years...but I really hate buyer remorse- I hate buying something that becomes even temporarily cheaper later - At the same time I am trying to stick to a plan) Look forward to discussion here from all the very insightful people on this board.
  15. I know there are sports fan here. Parsad hope you don t mind being slightly of topic. I find sports drafts very interesting... I find them similar to what happens in the stock market. The compromise/balance between value + wants/needs + emotion + supply/demand for type of players needed. Interesting to see the panic at the top of the 1st round with several teams overpaying for quarterbacks. Meanwhile Bill Belichek with more ammo + talent then anyone else trading 50 cent pieces for dollar bills. Its great that the average person can follow via the internet, cable TV + you can see later who has done well + who has been reaching.
  16. biaggio

    MSFT

    I can vouch for cartridge business as I just replaced the ink for our HP color lazer printer...the genius engineers programed machine so that you have to replace all the color at once, even if they are not all done. For $300 you get ~ 2500 pages (assuming 20% coverage)...initially I paid this at staples, but then I brought it back thinking that it was a crazy price to pay. (I ended buying knock off for$200 but still crazy...this lasts our family a couple years but I am a cheap bastard) Have not looked at HPQ but plan to.
  17. Is there a chance we can reach $315 (1 x tangible BV)?
  18. Parsad, how old would he roughly be? If remember correctly from annual meeting, he is awfully young to retire. Good for him. Is there anything else we should read into this announcement?
  19. Packer, mistakes will be made. I am sure FFH will make their share (I hope not as I own a good % of my holdings) The question will be - will BRK be a company any idiot can run? Because as Peter Lynch once said, eventually you may have an idiot running it. It s not what happens that counts but how you respond. Things happen. I am sure WEB + CM will respond appropriately.
  20. Ericopoly, I would say that KO was probably overvalued 10 years ago + that is why it has lagged gold("hasn't followed the same path as gold in the past few years"). Now perhaps it is the opposite. I agree with your post. Like someone else said on a prior post that the value of KO operation in Zimbabwae (how do you spell that?) has been preserved while the value of their currency has evaporated. What is your thoughts on just owning KO (or other business that can pass on their cost) vs their calls? I have never used options. I have never used leverage. I have tried not to be greedy(mostly out of fear + feeling humbled by the market/and board members here who are way smarter than me). Currently feel uncomfortable with amount of cash. At the same time am having a hard time finding high quality business at a deep discount.
  21. Myth Thanks for posting. It s not often that you have someone talk about an investment thesis that went wrong (i.e. the Nokia example). Mind you, there point was because they bought it with a MOS, including a very good balance sheet they were able to sell with a small profit.
  22. on the surface appears to be paying a full price (21 x earnings) with undervalued stock to boot. Obviously/hopefully JNJ management knows what they are doing. what do others think? What will WEB think?
  23. Sears Canada pushes deeper into digital age http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/sears-canada-pushes-deeper-into-digital-age/article1994458/ "introducing a new web tool in stores to allow shoppers to try on fashions and model them for friends or family on wide in-store screens. The department-store retailer is rolling out other online capabilities, such as allowing customers to design their own custom furniture on the Web. And it’s looking into allowing shoppers to use their smart phones at the checkout and to compare products and prices with those at rivals." At least now they seem to be tryin.
  24. http://adventuresincapitalism.com/post/2011/04/17/Flash-Crash-To-The-Upside-In-Gold.aspx Kuppy calling for a "Flash crash to the upside in gold" or a melt up. I am not a fan of gold but Kuppy seems pretty astute. Could we extrapolate that it would be best to hold hard assets/commodities in general/land (and perhaps good/great companies whose products people will always want to buy i.e. KO, JNJ etc) instead of cash? I understand that when the abyss comes everything will go down for a short period of time + I suppose that will be the time to buy---I dont know that I will have the courage + timing to get in. I have no idea. That's what makes this interesting and fun.
  25. Tom Thayner (49 years old) at MKL I would imagine the other fellows at MKL are much older.
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