biaggio

http://www.businessinsider.com/erste-oil-charts-2011-3#and-of-course-personal-income-has-badly-lagged-the-cost-of-crude-13

Bond Guru: Deflation Will Be Back http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=3000009595&play=1 "As investors fret over rising oil prices and inflation, Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital, dubbed the "King of Bonds" by Barron's, explains why deflation will inevitably come creeping back." Personally I am biased towards inflation, so Prem + this guy are probably right. FFH getting attractive at these lower prices. What do others think?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/257466-fairfax-financial-an-intelligent-hedge-against-deflation?source=hp_latest_articles

http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=123894 I thought it was concise summary---sit in cash until things are obvious,wait for the fat pitch, buy cheap, see dear,...don t put your eggs in to many basket, but know your baskets.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1310067/000119312511044289/0001193125-11-044289-index.htm earnings + Letter from Mr Lambert

good story valuecarl, enjoyed reading story

I was just thinking... FFH's capital seems to be set up for deflation (bond holdings, CPI derivatives) but if we have a lot of inflation will this bring on a hard market? Will high inflation hurt insurance companies writing insurance in todays soft market? Will they not have to pay higher amounts for claims? Higher claim amounts leading to harder market, which results in FFH using their capital to write more insurance at such a price that they will actually have an underwriting profit which will counter balance losses they have in their CPI derviatives + bond holdings. Sorry if my thinking is a bit convoluted. Could be wishful thinking too.

well said OEC2000. Hindsight is always 20/20 I feel better after reading the conference call. It sounds like they just wanted to protect their $7.7 B in capital while waiting for the hard market. Most of the decrease in BV was due to the munis which just a paper entry as they plan to hold for the next 10 years (as they are happy getting a tax free 5-6 %, insured by BRK). Also Mr Watsa said on 2 occasions during the CC that he is waiting for further consequences related to the 2008-09 downturn as he does not feel that it is a regular recession...perhaps he is thinking we will have a Japanese like deflation and hence the CPI hedges. (I ,like a lot of people on this board, have always felt that we re in for a lot of inflation + I am happy in a preverse way of having my $$$ managed by someone who is way smarter than me + is thinking the opposite of me.)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1803581038&play=1 Charles Kantor, managing director of the Kantor Group at Neuberger Berman, explains why waiting for a market pullback may be a fool’s errand, and why he thinks the rally might have much, much more to go it would be nice to know the macro (or worry about the macro) but is it knowable? probably most of us will be wrong about predictions about the economy, macro events etc...best to use our energy focusing on finding securities selling at fifty cents on the dollar.

Ericopoly, I agree with twacowfca re prolotherapy, though prolo is not a fix for everything.- I have seen very good results-mostly with back problems. I am sure you have tried a good orthotic as well. Sounds like a very major procedure on your foot. Be prepared for a long recovery which can be up to 18 mo for less major foot surgery.(our feet take a beating + we take them for granted) The other thing is that foot surgery can be tricky + not all foot surgeons are the same- so make sure the guy that is going to do your surgery is experienced + reputable ( I am sure you have done your due diligence) Best of luck to you. What a great site--great discussion on financial matters + the occasional free medical advice.

the cigarette/tobacco companies

THI...they seem to raise prices every year + people pay to have their cup of coffee suspect SBUX probably the same

Sounds a little crazy to me. Why would you buy this? Wall street running out of ideas? Has to be a sign that we are due for a correction to me.

I am not an expert by any means, and I am learning from you all... Do you think they are overly conservative with their reserving? I noticed that their provisions for claims has increased 10.1% but their total business has increased only about 2%. Is this what is driving their combined ratio higher? If that is the case then a lot of their loss is on paper only ie not real cash (yet)

I am hoping they are just early.

press release- http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20110217-911416.html?mod=crnews Combine ratio for U.S operations =130% ?

Thanks for the helpful responses

Partner, I have ~ 7% of my portfolio in FFH & 3% in BRK-B...would you take 7% + 3% of added cash and add to these holdings? Before the additional cash I am ~ 25% cash.

How do folks here allocate new cash? My "investable" cash has increased by almost 50%. I am in the second part of my working career so the amount is a good size.i.e I don t want to lose it, but at the same time I don t want the value of it to erode as it will if we stay in cash. i. Do you divide it and allocate it right away proportionate to the holdings you had before the addition(provided that they are selling at a MOS)? ii. Do you average in or dollar cost average over the next 6-12 months (or other time frame)? iii. Do you hold the cash + wait for a really fat pitch/market correction? In the past i have generally done a combination of ii & iii.

. This guy gets way too much press. Myth, are you talking about Biglari?

Berkowitz +Fernandez step down from board this am according CNBC...not a good sign? Probably did not agree with hiring investment banker +/- other plans other board members may have?

http://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/2011/02/charles-t-maxwell-in-barrons-likes.html $300 per barrel oil by 2020

Thanks Zarley

"Sears Holdings Corporation submitted an application under Rule 24b-2 requesting confidential treatment for information it excluded from the Exhibits to a Form 8-K filed on January 21, 2011." -filing with SEC Does anyone know what these are?

My initial thought is that it is early for an April Fool's joke. Are you serious? He did a reverse split last year? Is he going to do one every year until he reaches BRK.A price of $100,000. What is he doing? Seems to be wasting time + resources on doing something that adds no value whatsoever.