AzCactus

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-23/more-subprime-borrowers-are-falling-behind-on-their-auto-loans

I think using Apple to highlight overvaluation in the growth segment is a bit of a stretch given the cash they have on hand, their earnings power, moat and current valuation .

It sounds like overconcentration was his undoing not value, growth or a combination. And saying possible 50% drawdown at this point seems a bit premature. It's a possibility to be sure but not sure that's he problem that this guy had.

This.

Maybe the author was joking.

Who cares?

It depends on what you want. If you want to compound at 8-12% pre-tax: anyone who has the right temperament and keeps it simple can do it. If you want to compound at 15%+ pre-tax: that's probably out of the question for 99% of people out there. This is out of the question for 99% of the people irrespective of the strategy employed.

One issue that I haven't seen mentioned is the sheer capital that some of these guys are managing. Size is the anchor of performance. I think some decent investor may have said that.

Both those companies fb/goog have high inside ownership, share of mind/market, high roe and young(er) management. Berkshire is great and at these prices I'm kinda interested--however the lack of succession is an issue to me. There really isn't one berkshire business which is a pro and a con. Lastly, whether the next CEO is Greg Abel, Ajit Jain or someone else I would wonder what % of their net worth is in berkshire.

Not to be critical, but I think showing a one year time frame is irrelevant. Maybe showing the 5/10 year performance of those guys would be helpful. I don't think many people on this board have outperformed every year for the last ten.

The fund manager is just another business person; no different to every plumber, dentist, lawyer, shop-keeper, captain of industry, etc. in the world. Around the world a large number of private successful business persons, will routinely do as least as well as them; and some better. They don’t need your money. This is correct most of the time but not every time. For example, a dentist and plumber aren't paid anything like a performance based fee. If a fund manager went with a Buffett type structure and didn't achieve at least 6% a year I'm not sure how they make money if this was their only source of income.

CMPR MKL UA

Why don't you ask Uccmal via private message? That was certainly a catalyst to my thinking about it. I wasn't picking on him. It just occurred to me it is really difficult. Bill Miller performed spectacularly until he didn't and much was lost. You can find dozens who have crashed badly enough their long term records reverted to the average. Lampert did great until he met Sears - then he ran into himself and the Peter Principle. Its awfully hard to recover from a really ugly pick(s). Walter Schloss kept up high returns for decades by sticking to a tight formula, and never doubling down on anything. John Neff did the same, with similar results as Walter. Partly I am tired of my own crappy results the last couple of years. My portfolio is Now 90% in dividend payers, except pdh, and pwt. I am trying to pick companies that will maintain, and raise their dividends regularly. I am willing to take lower total returns to have downside protection. And I am trying to get them on sale, at least somewhat. I think sticking to a system forever is really hard. Especially the way Schloss did. Again, I think the sports analogy is fair you work very hard in the beginning and than you get a big contract (more AUM) and mistakes seem to pop up more. Not a perfect analogy but I do think its a fair one.

The physical element is big in sports. But, for hedge funds, intelligence is accretive.... like what Charlie says about Warren.. but, I think assets under management is the killer in money management vs physical degradation. Absolutely correct. However, I do think those 13 athletes may have something that the others dont

When I think of outperformance the thing that comes to my mind is sports. If you think of outperformance in the NBA points per game might be an interesting area to start. My guess is that hundreds of players over the years have averaged more than 25 points per game for a season, however only 13 have done so over their career. With sports there's a physical element of course but the point is really the same---being much better than average over a long period of time is very hard.

Why not? I've been harping about famous managers underperforming in various places for quite a time. Einhorn. Loeb. Ackman. So Uccmal opened a thread based on Pabrai, but really that's just yet another example . Edit: if you are looking something to blame for the thread, blame SP500 runup from 2009. :P Jurgis, I don't disagree at all. I'm just saying there's not a lot new about most people underperforming especially when you are charging 2 and 20. I would say when you factor in emotions upwards of 98% of people if not more would be better in an index fund.

I don't think anyone said it was easy to outperform. I also think that if Horsehead hadn't gone broke this thread likely would not have come up.

I would be interested to know if the interview has taken place and where a copy could be found? Thanks.

With the plunge in oil prices what names come to the top of your mind or are you just buying an etf or multiple companies individually? Personally, I think CFX looks cheapish and should be in good shape long term.

Another closet predictor with no record of such prediction. Nice to see you. Lol

Cardboard, what stocks or how are you planning to benefit from the oil situation long term ?

Even if you are running a small amount of money I would consider those returns pretty impressive. I do agree though they won't stay that high if they were managing 10X what they have now.

That Mohnish Pabrai has poor risk management

When do we think the interview will be posted? Looking forward to hearing his thoughts

You missed this part: This is Ted's portfolio before closing Peninsula. Thanks for clearingt that up. Just curious how this is relevant 4 or 5 years since he's been with berkshire.