AzCactus

I would go with AKREX. My wife and I have a good % of net worth with them and think that they have a solid and scalable process. I guess only time will tell.

I imagine you are kinda joking---but while the math is right this is a really poor way to look at things. Obviously Berkshire won't buy the same amount every quarter and as a shareholder I don't really want them to. I would rather they buyback shares when they are a bargain. Had Berkshire bought back 5% of shares at sub 180 level that would have been awesome. If today shares were at 220, I would imagine/hope he would be more prudent.

The areas of the board are categorized by topic. If you aren't interested in a topic, you don't have to read it.

Thank god and about time :)

Buffett has said time and again that "it's better to be approximately right than precisely wrong." I think it's less important to know whether Berkshire's intrinsic value is $235/$240 and more important to know that it's significantly higher than it's current market price today.

I think fair value is around 230-240 per share. A couple of reasons I don't have a number closer to Value Maven's: 1. Heavy cash balance-This only really helps if recession is much longer than people except. 2. Buffett's inactivity-Heavily covered. I won't reiterate. 3. Buffett's inability of unwillingness to do buybacks at a bigger scale. One thing Buffett has said many times is we could move fast or make a deal quickly. Well he had the opportunity to snatch up shares around 160/170 and didn't. Now they have spent most of this quarter around 180---we'll see if he did anything.

This part of what you mentioned Castanza is interesting: an under performance in the short term is insignificant to me in the long term I am similar age to you early 30's. However, Berkshire has underperformed for a pretty long time---I believe the past 10 or so years. If you think that underperformance continues for another 5-7 years we are at 15 years of underperformance. Just to get back to even with VFIAX or something is no easy chore. I am long Berkshire because I believe that it is undervalued today and things will be done sooner rather than later. Some things that come to mind off hand are buybacks and making an acquisition.

My investment in BRK is really based on what next management will do and am just buying is close to book now .... while dealing with the pain of going sideways for some more years. And I am ok with whatever Buffet does in the meantime. For those holding Berkshire with the above statement in mind---I think this is a little naive. There has been limited communication that Buffett will step down anytime soon. I think it's possible he is in charge another 5-7 years. Buffett clearly feels he has earned the right to continue running the show even if he is no longer the best man for the job. This seems akin to owners giving loyal players big contracts at the end of their career-ala Lakers with Kobe Bryant in 2013. Except in this case Buffett is both owner and operator.

The questions around the reopening are: 1. How long does it take for businesses to get to pre-covid employment? (My guess awhile) 2. What happens when positive cases spike? I live in AZ and the numbers have hit recent records (in terms of daily cases), my guess is confidence would be too shaken if we shut things down, so I imagine this will be a new normal.

Speaking on behalf of the company I work for, it was recently announced that all employees (can) work from home for the remainder of 2020. Those who want to be in the office can beginning sometime in late June. I think the two biggest issues (long term) are: 1. Type of work you do 2. How productive you/team are while WFH 3. Management's ability to change with the times. Speaking personally, I would only entertain going in the office more than once a week if it came with a pay bump of some sort. But there's no reason for the company to offer that.

So he's talking about buybacks. Kinda throwing up in my mouth. He was buying back ~20% higher and now putting the brakes on. Wonder if he'll get a question pressing more about that.

Question surrounding buying stock or buying back stock. Sounds like he's defending the cash position as part of "fortress" balance sheet. So he's willing to buy something for 30, 40, 50 billion but common stocks aren't attractive maybe I'm missing something. Not the most satisfying answer---sounds like this means he thinks the Coronavirus is gonna be here a while and be bad.

Also interesting to see him giving the Mr. Market analogy after he didn't hardly buy last quarter. Here's to hoping we get a good explanation as to the reasons why.

Buffett is brilliant and Lucid, agreed! Now just the question of that 137 billion. He sounds like he's predicting this to be a long process

I have recently been a big reader here of a ton of posts regarding the economy, when it will reopen, how it will reopen and how behavior will change. There are at least two big hurdles, the first is states announcing that places are reopen and people can (have the right to) go to certain places. The second and IMO the bigger hurdle is the mindset of the consumer. Will he/she jump right back into action and behave how they were behaving two/three months ago ? My question for you is what activities would you immediately reengage in and which would you hold off on? On a personal level, I am in Arizona and I think I would wait at least a couple of weeks and slowly begin some "normal" activities such as eating out, shopping etc. based on the data provided. However, there's no chance in hell you would find me in a bar, concert, sporting event etc. until at lest Christmas time. David

Am I understanding right that you think all those businesses listed above have negative value cumulatively ?

This is an interesting, but also an odd thread. Several people have been making assumptions about Berkshire with very limited concrete evidence. Here are the facts 1. Charlie Munger isn't the primary individual making investments at Berkshire. He may not even be second or third 2. Berkshire's first obligation is to current employees and making sure that they do not need govt bailout/assistance-(yes I know as of Q4 they had ~128 billion in cash) 3. Most importantly, we have no idea what Berkshire may have bought and we won't know until they release their 13f. 4. Lastly, the Covid situation isn't over, so maybe Warren thinks lows might be retested. I think between all the businesses Berkshire owns and his friendship with Gates, he knows more about the overall economy/situation than most. Sorry about formatting

Tell us how you really feel ::)

Really sad to see this. Genuinely thought he had a good shot at being a Klarman/Buffett.

I'll second the above post. Pretty confused that there's no news at all about this. It's totally possible that's how Allan wants things given this ending, but it does seem strange that he is shutting things down while prices are also down.

Not too be cynical but does anyone actually have proof of what's being said here? I didn't see anything in the news and imagine that there would be some documentation of this if this was all true. I'm not saying these posts aren't correct, just wondering.

Does anyone know what the hell happened here? He's in his 40's I believe and has been decimated this year I would imagine. Website page does appear inactive-http://arlingtonvalue.com/ David

Since the market lows it looks like things have recovered ~33% while unemployment is rising and uncertainty surrounding coronavirus still exists. I have seen a couple of posts regarding shorts in the what are you buying thread but thought a dedicated thread might be useful as well. I've generally been looking at both retail/restaurants. Even though these sectors have been beaten down, I would imagine some will go broke due to change in user/customer behavior combined with piles of debt in some cases. One name that I think could be in real trouble is CAKE. Publicly announcing that they aren't paying rent, combined with a situation with no obvious end in sight seems like an issue to me.

Not sure there's an easy answer here, but am I the only one wondering about this. End of Q4 ~128 billion in cash, nothing announced not even USA will be fine. Am I missing something here?

There's obviously a ton of talk about all the things that have changed during the Coronavirus pandemic. I thought it would be interesting to list a few things related to work, family life, routine that haven't really changed. I'll go ahead and kick us off: 1. Job-My wife and I are both really lucky to have the same jobs we have been in since before the virus started--no furloughs, pay cuts etc. 2. Routine(s)-I enjoy walking and for now we are still allowed to walk outside--I'm in PHX, AZ 3. Family Life-It's just me and my wife and since we both WFH for the time being we are actually connecting more and doing more walking, cooking etc. together. David