AzCactus

Does anyone know what the hell happened here? He's in his 40's I believe and has been decimated this year I would imagine. Website page does appear inactive-http://arlingtonvalue.com/ David

Since the market lows it looks like things have recovered ~33% while unemployment is rising and uncertainty surrounding coronavirus still exists. I have seen a couple of posts regarding shorts in the what are you buying thread but thought a dedicated thread might be useful as well. I've generally been looking at both retail/restaurants. Even though these sectors have been beaten down, I would imagine some will go broke due to change in user/customer behavior combined with piles of debt in some cases. One name that I think could be in real trouble is CAKE. Publicly announcing that they aren't paying rent, combined with a situation with no obvious end in sight seems like an issue to me.

Not sure there's an easy answer here, but am I the only one wondering about this. End of Q4 ~128 billion in cash, nothing announced not even USA will be fine. Am I missing something here?

There's obviously a ton of talk about all the things that have changed during the Coronavirus pandemic. I thought it would be interesting to list a few things related to work, family life, routine that haven't really changed. I'll go ahead and kick us off: 1. Job-My wife and I are both really lucky to have the same jobs we have been in since before the virus started--no furloughs, pay cuts etc. 2. Routine(s)-I enjoy walking and for now we are still allowed to walk outside--I'm in PHX, AZ 3. Family Life-It's just me and my wife and since we both WFH for the time being we are actually connecting more and doing more walking, cooking etc. together. David

LOL!!! I think that was pretty great too

Thanks Gregmal. Appreciate your point and insights.

Here's my concern---people are saying that things are priced in. But if we don't know how bad this thing is going to get (I sure don't) how can we say things are priced in. Do we know for sure whether this will last 6 weeks or 6 months ? Do we know how quickly restaurants, airlines, cruises etc will get back to "normal?" And the unemployment numbers exclude certain people as well if I'm not mistaken who may be underemployed which does change behavior.

Hi guys! I'm not a macroeconomist by any stretch of the imagination but I like to think that I have a bit of common sense. Unemployment numbers came out today and they were the worst on record if I'm not mistaken. The markets are UP ~4-~5%. I guess my question is, did I miss something super obvious here? My statement would be that based on what we have seen over the past 3-4 weeks of trading for anyone who's a proponent of EMH---can you please explain what's going on. Thanks, David

Unless you run out of cash to invest.

Not to be rude snarky here, but how do you know he hasn't been taking action? He hasn't announced an acquisition but I would imagine he's bought some stocks during this pullback. David

Yeah 100 bp rate cut + what the fed announced last week means things have to be really bad. Better early than late I guess but---this is what happens when pain isn't allowed to happen. In a world where rates are higher, borrowing is done in a more conservative way and leverage doesn't get out of hand. I don't always agree with him, but Dave Ramsey does say you can't borrow yourself out of debt as a country (maybe the world too), that's what it sounds like we are trying.

The weird thing is it's only been three weeks. In my limited experience most bear markets last longer than that.

Define Afraid. Of the virus, oil prices plummeting, stocks going down more, my wife being mad at me lol ? David

Why would he be worried? Isn't he worth 9 figures :)

Because Donald Trump saying the market will be "just fine" is too interesting not to post. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/12/trump-says-markets-will-be-fine-as-stocks-crater-on-coronavirus-worry.html David

So the interesting question is.....what happens Wednesday ?

I've always thought a company like Fastenal would plug in well with Berkshire.

Hi guys, To me Halloween is the beginning of the holiday season 8) . I hope you all have a fun and safe day and happy holiday season. Let's go :D

IMO, it's simply an effect of large AUM. I can't imagine the finagling required to move 1.2 b around versus 100m or less, which is where most of the out performance came from. I probably sound a tad ignorant here but relative to other peers such as Ackman and Klarman managing 1.2/1.3 billion isn't crazy and saying that's the reason he was down ~17% or so last year doesn't make a ton of sense. I just think some of his picks are taking longer to pan out then he would have hoped and that happens sometimes. Another case is CMPR which has fallen from around 130ish down to the high 70s.

So most of the rest of the world is a mess mostly due to their own governments' actions, and that is somehow better than the mostly stable system in the US? If only our government were just a little more corrupt and our currency a little more unstable then we'd get a taste of what "true" investing looks like. This +1

It's pretty questionable too that the net worth figure between 50 and 65 would be the exact same---that makes no sense.

ADS/NLSN

I own a little Berkshire and have obviously learned a bit from him, but to the extent Morningstar is correct...It seems like he has underperformed the market on 3, 5, and 10 year period. Over a 15 year period he has outperformed by 36 bps. Does this just seem subpar to anyone other than me? I get he's a great investor, but the fact that he HAS made billions and billions doesn't necessitate that he'll beat the market moving forward. Am I missing something here folks?

Regarding Arlington specifically it's a tad suspect that the accusations come out and the following year they keep their letter private. He has every right to do so, but the timing is peculiar.

I've heard (in more than one place) that even if Arlington bought at the lowest price and sold in the highest that there returns still don't add up. Obviously when you add options etc and other ways to generate returns it gets more difficult to measure returns. But there was one specific year (maybe 2015) where the returns simply seemed a tad high. All that said I truly doubt this is a fraud