Jurgis

Thanks for your analysis and 10K. It's interesting to see what a basket case BRK was when Buffett took over. No wonder some of his partners did not buy into BRK. I like to look back and wonder if I could have bought or held BRK through all its travails. It seems easy with 20/20 vision of the past. But boy it would have been difficult to hold at certain points in company's history...

Both of these arguments are flawed. Like I answered in another thread, automation is not a smooth process. Think about self driving cars. There is no way to get rid of the human drivers with 50%-self-driving car. But once you have 100%-self-driving car, boom, all humans are gone. This is extreme example, but somewhat true in other places. Edit: I guess I forgot to address your second argument. Actually this one is even more stepwise: automation is more expensive than cheap labor because it costs a lot to make robots. But if you automate making robots to make robots, the price of automation may plunge. Whether this will happen soon is unclear though.

No. Self driving cars will eliminate a huge number of human employees from tons of industries in one swoop. Automatization and robotization of other professions is ongoing. It's not a smooth process, but rather a stepwise process: you can't replace humans with machines until you suddenly can. "Big data" is a lot of hype. There's probably over 50% places where it won't matter at all. But in some other places it will matter a lot. Once again, probably not in a smooth way, but rather stepwise. If you talk about productivity in USA, it's likely the productivity increases from IT have moderated because most of USA jobs are in the categories where productivity won't increase much without a radical shift.

I believe you misread what I wrote. I don't use 4% discount rate.

There might be. However, I doubt that many of my positions won't drop in a downdraft. My dry powder for a downdraft is cash and positive non-investment cash flow(s). Unexpected inheritance at market bottom is the key. ;)

OT? None of my stock positions are held because the rates are at 2% and therefore I discount at 4% or something. I have zero stock positions that are cheap just relative to rates. All my stock positions are there because they are cheap(ish) absolutely period. Of course, the above limits stock selection hugely right now: there are only few areas that are still cheap(ish). And even the stocks that are still cheap(ish) are not as cheap as they were in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012. E.g. FRFHF or BRK.

Whoa, tell us how you really feel. 8) I, for one, welcome our new Fed overlords. :D

Agreed.

And of course after Greenspan's comments the dot-com bubble promptly burst...four years later. That was one of the implications in my comment. ;)

Greenspan "irrational exuberance" moment? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irrational_exuberance

Yep. Seems to spend tons of time connecting to ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com

Well, that's why Zuckerberg Zuckerberged his neighbors... Nice house I have to say.

You are assuming that this is the only way to do it: pretend you did not know. So let me agree with you that this is not the way to do it and finish with that. 8) There are good way(s) to do it. But let's have prospective buyers find them themselves. 8)

Now I almost want to buy that house to prove naysayers on this board wrong. 8) ;D

No, actually I am not joking. You presume that anyone who'd do it would look like a creep. I disagree. It's possible to buy that house and get to know Buffett nicely. (Yes, running across the street on a move-in day to share your stock pick is possibly not the way to go ;) ) There's been a bunch of people who have met with Buffett in various circumstances and have benefited from it. In some cases (Ted, Todd, Tracy), Buffett benefited from meeting them too. I'm not saying it's easy. But, yes, it's a great opportunity for a right person. Whether anyone will take it, we'll see. ;) Take care

Isn't it more worthwhile (and cheaper ;) ) to go through Damodaran's classes/slidesets on his site? ( http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/ ) Disclaimer: I have not gone through Damodaran's classes/slidesets in depth. I like some of his stuff and don't like other parts. YMMV.

That's why I suggested for Buffett to Zuckerberg it. ;) If I was aspiring money manager, I'd grab it without thinking. OMG what opportunities. Better than a lunch for $1M. Seriously. The guys here who want to go to the top should really consider this. 8)

Buffett should Zuckerberg that house asap. Yes, that's a verb

I'll post a poll. Do you think this should be adjusted by age? And country? Just kidding ;D

Funny thing. :) I mostly agree with you that people don't usually delay purchases because something will be cheaper tomorrow. But of course you made a mistake asking these rhetorical (?) questions on CoBF. Cause this is the crowd that delays buying things because they will be cheaper tomorrow habitually. 8) Yeah, I have delayed buying cars, computers, DVD players, etc. because they will be cheaper tomorrow and because of the time value of money. Many times. But sure, we are not majority of consumers, so this is just a funny thing and it does not negate your thesis. And, as I said, I mostly agree with you. However, there still could be deflation not because consumers wait for cheaper prices tomorrow, but because they can't buy today. That's the deflation of house prices in 2008-2009. People might have wanted to buy the house, but they couldn't and the prices dropped and dropped. So, yeah, there are situations where deflation is possible, but it's probably more likely in economic downturn. So, perhaps Europe...

I mostly agree with innerscorecard. I think my decision process would rarely if at all be helped by knowing the AUM of person presenting an opinion about a stock. 8)

Lance, Did that just get listed? Why didn't you buy FIH (in Canada)? Thanks, AtlCDore One reason to buy FFXDF is if your broker does not allow international stocks. Or if your broker does not allow international stocks in IRA and you want the position in IRA.

Thanks. :)

globalfinancepartners, I don't think there is need to put jobyts on the spot. His/her goal is possibly reasonable but not achievable in this forum. Let's leave it at that. 8) Peace

Does anyone know offhand where did the share count drop come from? (I might dig later, asking in case someone already did). Thanks