Parsad

Didn’t Elon Musk say Tesla price was too high at one point too? Yes. Back in like May 2020 when the price was like 1/5 of what it is today. BTC to the Does Musk own BTC because he believes it is a fundamental replacement for currency/hard assets? Or does he own it because he can now tap into the $100B market of potential Tesla buyers that make their money illegally and could not buy Teslas because they didn't want to show cash. That's alot of Teslas that he can now sell that other car companies can't because they don't accept BTC. The buyer pays in BTC and then sells the Tesla for cash to others...instantly laundered money for the buyer and Tesla sells a shitload of new Teslas. At some point, governments will crack down on BTC. They have to get their cut somehow...a BTC/crypto tax is coming! Cheers!

This was pretty good ;D Gave me a good laugh and was actually quite catchy. Does anyone else find it ironic that during a period of intense government control and essentially total compliance by the population, that an "asset" which is reliant on stripping the government of power is the investment of choice? Until now we've all had to accept the abuses inherent with fiat currency, and all we could do was swap one fiat for another - the meet the new boss; same as the old boss. Now there's a real choice, and at all times - the fiat currency is always the safety net. The alternative to BTC is a global digital RESERVE currency - & elimination of USD reserve currency status. Today, central banks either get their collective sh1te together - and offer it (soon), or BTC becomes the RESERVE currency of choice. But it couldn't happen, had BTC not been invented by anarchists. All good. SD I still don't understand the fundamental functionality behind current cryptocurrencies including BTC. With fiat currency, you have tax revenues and public assets that support the currency. With gold/silver/etc you have actual utility value that increases with inflation over time. There is nothing supporting bitcoin except the increase in universality...but at one time tulips were just as universal as currency. This is going to end the same way...probably when well-endowed companies, sovereign funds, nation states create their own digital/crypto currency. Cheers!

Every Tom, Dick and Harry is asking me about crypto now...GME and TSLA don't seem interesting to them anymore. Every time the subject comes up, I smirk reflexively out of disgust, and I keep hoping I didn't offend the person asking the question. I also don't want to engage them, so I just say "Yeessss...." I remember the last time this happened 2-3 years ago in these numbers, Bitcoin fell from $28K to $6K. I'm expecting something similar again, as I don't think we are in a new era! Cheers!

This This play, which he only held for 1 day, was a 5x and more importantly helped him build goodwill with the next generation of investors. These are the investors who will be buying his holding company when it goes public. It was a smart business move that communicated to retail investors "I'm on your side." Really? Even Chamath wasn't thinking that far ahead or communicating that. Either he'll disappear 10 years from now or he'll be huge. There's no middle ground here with him. We've seen these shows before...they go one way or the other. Cheers!

No one could have done that role other than Jeff Bridges...maybe Matthew McConaughey...but that's it! Cheers!

Could very well be CVX...could also have been XOM. Both were quite low and attractive around the end of October. Cheers!

Foreign stock positions are not included in the 13F, so they may have added to positions in Europe, India, South America, etc during the market downturn. Cheers!

Yes, but his girlfriend is absolutely smoking hot and smart too! Cheers!

What was said? Rough version: Called in and told him he needed to step away, he wasn't paying attention anymore, and had lost his touch. Continued by saying that Prem didn't understand any of the companies he was investing in and wasn't doing any detailed analysis on microeconomics, his partners agreed but were Canadian so too nice to tell him, and the bankers were cowards not asking hard questions because Canada doesn't have enough good companies. Sounds like Sanjeev. Kidding!!! Ha ha!! I'm listening to the call now. Let me see who this twat was! Cheers! Don't know who it was, but you could tell that they have very little understanding about how much analysis goes on at Fairfax when selecting investments. I'm probably one of a very few handful of people who has actually seen the internal workings and spoken to all of the analysts, portfolio managers, core group in detail over the years, and does not work for the company. This guy has no idea what he is talking about! Cheers! I have no doubt that you are right. Or more accurately I flipping hope you are right! But in fairness to the questioner, Prem's explanation of his investments is always highly simplistic, and usually revolves around people not microeconomics. We think John Chen is great!!! We believe in Blackberry!!! We bought Exxon on a 10% dividend yield!!! You can get away with that when you're knocking it out of the park, but you have to assume people will question your thinking when you're not. In my view it would do Prem no harm to adopt a more structured, numbers-based approach to explaining his investment theses. 90% of people wouldn't understand. Buffett says he writes his letters in a way so that his sisters could understand what he's investing in. The other issue is that if you say TOO MUCH, then shareholders linger on every tiny word you've said. For example, Prem's said he won't short again...no matter how great the opportunity, or perhaps necessary to protect statutory surplus?! Investors would be jumping all over him again if he shorts. So it's a balancing act between enough information and not too much information. If people really want to know the depth of their analysis and thought process, come to our annual dinner in Toronto. They get very deep into it where they can, especially past holdings. Cheers!

ZM. Cheers!

Did you guys catch the bit on they are investing in mortgages? Did I hear that correctly? Was it mortgage or mortgage related bonds...? Low interest rates, are they looking for yield. Cheers!

What was said? Rough version: Called in and told him he needed to step away, he wasn't paying attention anymore, and had lost his touch. Continued by saying that Prem didn't understand any of the companies he was investing in and wasn't doing any detailed analysis on microeconomics, his partners agreed but were Canadian so too nice to tell him, and the bankers were cowards not asking hard questions because Canada doesn't have enough good companies. Sounds like Sanjeev. Kidding!!! Ha ha!! I'm listening to the call now. Let me see who this twat was! Cheers! Don't know who it was, but you could tell that they have very little understanding about how much analysis goes on at Fairfax when selecting investments. I'm probably one of a very few handful of people who has actually seen the internal workings and spoken to all of the analysts, portfolio managers, core group in detail over the years, and does not work for the company. This guy has no idea what he is talking about! Cheers!

Yeah, pretty clear on his position on BB and talking about it. He said they are insiders and don't discuss securities they are buying or selling. The spike happened in Q1 as well, so I suspect if they did anything it will be disclosed in the Q1 report. Cheers!

While they have concentrated positions, that is one of the broadest 13F's I've ever seen Fairfax report. Closer to Markel's portfolio in number of holdings and structure...other than the huge concentrated holdings like ATCO, BB, etc. Cheers!

What was said? Rough version: Called in and told him he needed to step away, he wasn't paying attention anymore, and had lost his touch. Continued by saying that Prem didn't understand any of the companies he was investing in and wasn't doing any detailed analysis on microeconomics, his partners agreed but were Canadian so too nice to tell him, and the bankers were cowards not asking hard questions because Canada doesn't have enough good companies. Sounds like Sanjeev. Kidding!!! Ha ha!! I'm listening to the call now. Let me see who this twat was! Cheers!

Doesn’t matter when it closes. The point is (I think) they’ve locked in that price for a future buyback of 1.4m shares. Edit: what I mean is that when it closes doesn’t affect the profitability of the eventual buyback. If the TRS contract allows the parties to close out quarterly for example, FFH may be limited to a short term window where they can accrue gains on the reference asset (1.4m shares) less the cost paid (LIBOR + spread) for the period. On the other hand, if the counter party can't close out until a specific termination date set in the future, say 1 year from initiation, then FFH has more time to capture upside on the reference asset which is exciting knowing all the tailwinds occurring at the moment (Farm Edg, BB etc, CR's etc ). Paying LIBOR + spread vs. getting upside on 1.4M shares from $443cdn for a few more quarters is a pretty attractive risk/reward with all these tailwinds in mind. I'm by no means a SWAP expert - but that's how I'm understanding this at the moment. Correct me if I'm missing something. If it’s just a financial bet then you’re right. I don’t think it’s a financial bet. I think it’s a buyback. I think once they have the cash to pay 1.4m * USD344, they close out the TRS and buy 1.4m shares, using gains on the TRS to pay for any amount by which the share price exceeds USD344. Thought about that way, it doesn’t matter whether the transaction happens tomorrow or in a decade. I could easily be wrong! Actually, the way it works is that Fairfax pays a fee...usually Libor plus a negotiated rate. As Fairfax trades higher, the counterparty pays the difference between the strike price and market price. At the end of the swap time period, Fairfax gets the counterparty payments minus the Libor plus negotiated rate. It's not a buyback, but they benefit from it as if they bought those shares, paid a fee and reaped the gains. If Fairfax stock falls, then Fairfax pays the difference between the strike price and market price into the swap. Cheers!

I'm wondering if Prem mentioning the total return swaps hinted at what they may have done with the Blackberry spike in January. I hope they locked in some of those gains! Also, as I estimated, I would imagine book value in Q1 presently is around $500 USD...which would justify a price of $600 USD at the end of Q1. Cheers!

I'm calling a market correction some time this year! After reading this article, I'm pretty sure we are getting near a top. I would also rename this article, "The Man No One Will Remember in 5 Years!" Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-mogul-bets-meme-investing-220000958.html

For the life of me I can't remember where I saw this little bit, whether it was SNL or Youtube or elsewhere, but a wife is disgruntled with her husband and his gambling ways...essentially he's blown everything the family owns. When the family confronts him in an intervention, he defends himself and says that everyone is blaming him for things that weren't his fault...that people called him a degenerate gambler...he then points out how offended he is by it and smugly states "I work, I work, I'm a day trader!" Cheers!

Totally agree! If everyone was left to their own devices, we would have utter chaos! I'll be 52 in July, and even after everything I've saved and invested, I wonder if it is still enough. I also know that the majority of people my age and those heading into retirement have a fraction of what I have saved. Without CPP, universal healthcare, medicare, etc., there is no way they would be able to live a retirement life with any dignity. Cheers!

Sanj, You did not place a currency indicator in front of the dollar sign. FFH trading at CAD$750 is not so exciting because that is only US$600. Book value for Q4 will be what, maybe US$460? BV should be nicely over US$500 by Dec 2021, unless FFH's BB gains are as ephemeral as many of us fear. If you did actually mean that it will trade at US$750 within the next 23 months, I would suggest that is perhaps a shade ambitious. I'd love for that to happen, but... SJ Sorry! When I talk about FFH, I'm always talking in CDN dollars other than their financials...I'm still pissed over the NYSE listing! :o Yeah, for sure $750 CDN before 2022. I think they've got a 60-70% chance of hitting $750 USD before the end of 2022. Why? Assume book value is at $500 USD now...in this market, 1.2 times book is already $600 USD or $750 CDN. I've been saying that insurance was heating up before Covid, and it took a stellar leap after Covid in terms of premium pricing. They are going to write at 95% or better for the next 2 years. Add a simple 4% return on the portfolio and increase in book value should be roughly $40-60 USD a year. That means book value would be closer to $600 USD near the end of 2022...1.2 times book would be $750 USD or around $930 CDN. Mark my words! Cheers!

Barring a market crash, it will trade over $750 before the end of 2022. And I'm being conservative. Cheers!

But people say that every time. He was bailed out by his friends. He was bailed out by being right on the housing crisis and buying collateralized bonds. He was right because he is being bailed out by a tech bubble. As I said, in June he threw $150M of personal money into his own stock and explained why...that it was cheap. I told you guys why it was cheap even before Prem said he bought stock. A couple of other long-time FFH owners also said the same. There was an enormous amount of capital sitting on the sidelines over the last 3 years. Combine that with massive amounts of stimulus flowing into hands that don't need the cash, but they invest it in the markets, you have capital that was originally flowing into growth stocks now moving into value stocks. The Reddit and millennial bulls drew cash from sideline investors as well...so that had to find a place. This is the normal transition of capital flowing from expensive stocks into cheaper stocks...with the more expensive bubble stocks eventually crashing up to 90% of their value down the road. It's not a bailout...it's patience! Cheers! I have owned this for 13 years now and added materially in 2020. You do not need to persuade me that it was cheap! I did not, however, think they might have a chance to monetise Blackberry at $20, or that Digit would be marked up quite so fast, or that Farmer's Edge might generate a $1-2bn profit within 6 months - and I certainly did not think that all three would happen at once. I have never felt that he got bailed out before, personally. But I do not believe he invested in Farmer's Edge or Blackberry because he saw an epic bubble coming in unprofitable stocks. He thought they were great businesses and, frankly, there is precious little evidence so far that he was right. Even if BB and FDGE turn out to be super-profitable over the next decade, getting the chance to monetise them now at silly prices is transformative to Prem's IRR. That is pure luck. And being able to do it when he desperately needs capital is beyond luck. So no, sorry, he's been bailed out on this one. And I am not complaining at all. It be saying the same thing that Elon Musk was bailed out by an inflated stock price or was simply lucky. While the bubble might be true, it doesn't negate the fact that markets and observers were still wrong on Tesla and Musk's vision. Did Steve Jobs get bailed out because he invented the iPhone? Without the iPhone, AAPL today would not exist in its present form. With investing and entrepreneurship, there is always a bit of luck...but the winners always position themselves to benefit from that luck. If Buffett had not bought Blue Chip Stamps, met Munger, or eliminated derivatives contracts at Gen Re, Berkshire might not be the same either. Cheers!

But people say that every time. He was bailed out by his friends. He was bailed out by being right on the housing crisis and buying collateralized bonds. He was right because he is being bailed out by a tech bubble. As I said, in June he threw $150M of personal money into his own stock and explained why...that it was cheap. I told you guys why it was cheap even before Prem said he bought stock. A couple of other long-time FFH owners also said the same. There was an enormous amount of capital sitting on the sidelines over the last 3 years. Combine that with massive amounts of stimulus flowing into hands that don't need the cash, but they invest it in the markets, you have capital that was originally flowing into growth stocks now moving into value stocks. The Reddit and millennial bulls drew cash from sideline investors as well...so that had to find a place. This is the normal transition of capital flowing from expensive stocks into cheaper stocks...with the more expensive bubble stocks eventually crashing up to 90% of their value down the road. It's not a bailout...it's patience! Cheers!

Article on how 28% of American's bought one the hyped Reddit stocks: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gamestop-amc-reddit-investing-213609595.html Sad! Also margin lending versus GDP is at a historical high now. That doesn't bode well! Cheers!