Parsad

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brit-launches-lloyd-london-insurance-082212934.html I guess we were too early with Sequant Re four years ago...we were offering access to Lloyd's book of contracts as well as Guy Carpenter's book with our ILS business. Very disappointing! Cheers!

Not related to your question but I work in TO in the finance industry. Here is what I heard on the grapevine: CIBC makes most of their money on interest margins. Lower interest rates really hurt them. Other banks are more diversified...make more money off investment banking or other things less tied to interest rates. Fear of interest rates going down in event of another recession is why CIBC trades low. CIBC is a horrible internal culture. Everyone I know says this...I personally never experienced it. CIBC historically has always had a less diversified portfolio of business than Royal Bank and most of the other big banks. Their credit portfolio standards have historically been the worst of the big banks. When credit losses rise, CIBC gets hit harder than anyone else. TD has done the best job in the last decade to expand their book of business, especially the U.S. market. Royal Bank, TD and Bank of Montreal have all done a good job of expanding their services and book of business, and Bank of Montreal has done a good job of improving their credit quality standards. Bank of Nova Scotia has been doing a good job over the last 3 years and should be the bank to improve their banking profile the most over the next few years as they expand their wealth management business. The credit quality standards for these big banks is superior to CIBC, as is the underwriting culture between them and CIBC. Cheers!

Don't worry, the message board itself will remain the same or very similar. Ease of use will be the primary factor. Most of the changes will be around the rest of the content, utility, having guest contributors, the overall feel of how the COBF community developed over 18 years, and an upgraded more modern look and feel. Cheers!

Yo, bros...keep your pants on. COBF is going to be going a redevelopment over the next 6-8 months...thus why I haven't made certain upgrades, etc. It costs money to do a complete revamp! It will look - completely different - more modern - something I can actually treat more as a media website, rather than simply a message board - but the message board feature will be safe, and all existing posts transported over - including the section you love so much "Politics"...but it will be in its own play-pen, so you don't have to look at it if you don't want to. It will have more features, and all of the little "ignore" features you guys are looking for. Better security features. And yes, hats and t-shirts are coming, so that you guys can identify yourselves as the cult-nutjobs you are when you hold your city get togethers or go to Toronto or Omaha. Lots more as we add features, etc and redevelop COBF! Cheers!

Every time it falls below book value, I see Brian Bradstreet buying some shares. We shall know shortly! I think for long-term investors, who don't want to fiddle with their portfolio and just sleep at night...it's a buy! Cheers!

Also for those on a tighter budget, here is the phone call/teleconference auction: https://www.ebay.com/itm/123936600677?ssPageName=STRK:MESCX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1557.l2649 Plenty of sizzle...no steak...literally, there's no food! ;D Cheers!

Personally, the current bid of $17,000 is too rich for me. I don't consider myself enough of a high roller to bid on lunch with Monish. Maybe if there was an option for just coffee. Since this is supposed to be a value investor thread, I'd like to make a couple of points about what might be hidden value for some of you. First, I'd like to say that I am more impressed than ever with the wisdom of what Pabrai is doing with Dakshana. If you want your dollar to go a long way then Monish has found a very positive way of impacting the world. I also want to call out some people on this board who like to complain about the injustices of Hunter Biden starting life on third base, or the inequalities that the left concerns themselves with. Well why don't you put your money where your mouth is and give some money to an organization that actually does something about that sort of issue? Second, I think you could mock Pabrai for having this fundraiser and say that he is just copying Buffett. I might be tempted to do the same, but there's a problem with that. Buffett and Munger say that you can't pick and choose which parts of the system to copy. They say that if you want to adopt their system, you have to copy everything. I am guessing that Monish's interactions with Charlie, Warren and others in their universe have taught him something about that. There are too many people who say, "I'm going to be just like Buffett, except for the part about ethics" or "I'm just like Buffett, except for the part about living modestly, in fact I don't even want to live with my means, borrowing heavily to consume seems like more fun." Kudos to Monish for his efforts to copy ALL parts of the system rather than picking and choosing. It's probably better to risk being mocked for copying everything Buffett does than to leave out something important due to ignorance. It's probably also worth accidentally charging $8 dollars shipping or accidentally using your personal eBay account and exposing that your hobby is collecting beanie babies, either of which would obviously open you to ridicule. Finally, since I thought we were supposed to be analysts, here's an argument that the auction presents a bargain. Even if you don't think that speaking to Monish about investing or business has value to your particular situation, Monish has had the opportunity to spend time with Buffett and Munger and has become friendly with many people who are close to them. Even if you think the only value is that maybe some pixie dust fell off on to Monish, at 37 bps relative to the cost of lunch with Buffett, maybe it's not a bad deal? Even if you thought you should make adjustments for the relative scarcity of Buffett's time versus Monish's time, or maybe adjustments for the relative AUM amounts, etc I think someone could still make arguments that the lunch is cheap on a relative basis. Plus, I suspect we could learn something from Monish about marketing and self-promotion. Now Monish, I know you read CoB&F occasionally, and as a master marketer, I'm sure you check up on your online presence . . . so, about that coffee . . . feel free to message me. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glide_Foundation Event number Year Winning bid (USD) 20 2019 $4.57 million[9] 19 2018 $4.23 million[11] 18 2017 $2.68 million 17 2016 $3.46 million 16 2015 $2.35 million 15 2014 $2.16 million 14 2013 $1 million 13 2012 $3.46 million 12 2011 $2.63 million 11 2010 $2.63 million 10 2009 $1.68 million 9 2008 $2.1 million 8 2007 $650,100 7 2006 $620,100 6 2005 $351,100 5 2004 $202,100 4 2003 $250,100 3 2002 $25,000 2 2001 $18,000 1 2000 $25,000 The first 3 guys who had lunch with Buffet between 2000 and 2002 belong in the hall of fame of value investing. What the heck ever happen to the 2019 lunch? Did that crypto guy ever had a steak lunch with Buffet at Smith and Wollensky? Even Mohnish and Guy Spiers are at #8 and paid $650,100...a relative bargain compared to the going rate. Better use of money than paying off people to correct your child's SAT score or get them on a rowing/swimming team at college! :o Cheers!

Im just kidding... relax. Im just shocked at the prices people pay for investing advice. I doubt that anyone mainly pays for an investment advice or as some one else indicated, to get their name in papers when it comes to having lunch with Pabrai. Most people want to donate for a good cause when money is used wisely and if it comes with a lunch with him, it's even better. Wallet, investment etc are just bonus. I will highly recommend reading Dakshana Foundation's annual report. Exactly right rranjan! I personally paid $21K to play a round of golf and lunch with Wayne Gretzky. I'm not going to meet him to show off or become the next Gretzky...well past my prime, as well as my best before date! I wanted to donate the money, and in turn I get to have lunch with someone I marveled at when he played hockey and as a statesman for the sport. Certainly a better use than buying an expensive car! Cheers!

Only COBF members would shit on a guy for raising money to help others! Nice! Cheers!

For a good cause...Mohnish's non-profit "Dakshana". Bidding is at $15K currently and ends tomorrow! Cheers! https://www.ebay.com/itm/Power-Lunch-with-Mohnish-Pabrai/123928887750?hash=item1cdabcc1c6:g:PKAAAOSwX-Zdl6~L

Parsad, I never told you or anyone for that matter that the items I listed in my previous post were the reasons for Fairfax underperformance during the last decade. I can only assume that you are mixing up my comments with someone else's. Added: I also don't understand how you can claim their equities have done well by excluding puts and derivatives. That is like saying a long/short hedge fund did well on the long side if you ignore their short positions. Doesn't make much sense to me. -MD I'm not saying their overall portfolio did well. I'm saying that they made macro bets on the market and economy, including those puts and derivatives, which hurt their equity picks. Prem has said as much in the annual letters. And for all intents and purposes, those macro bets were a mistake. But if you are using 3.5-1 asset to equity leverage, plus debt, plus float, then you may be hamstrung by having to make macro bets to ensure you don't suffer catastrophic losses that reduce statutory surplus when you are writing insurance business. My point was, that if they have learned from those mistakes, their portfolio should do better over time. If they haven't learned from those mistakes, their portfolio could continue to suffer from macro bets. Investors should decide what they are comfortable with before buying Fairfax. Cheers!

Out of those five items, only really the macro calls affected performance. Their equity positions overall have done reasonably well since 2008, excluding the puts and derivatives. That's what really killed about $2B in gains. As for the Watsa family involvement, Ben has only been involved for the last 3 years, while Christine has been involved for one year...are you going to tell me that was the reason Fairfax underperformed for the last decade? Fairfax is not buying the market...be it value or growth. So that's not an excuse, nor the reason why it underperformed. We all know clearly from the letters that the macro calls since after 2009 offset about $2B in gains. And that extremely conservative position left them holding a ton of cash and a ton of bonds, when equities were priced at 50 year lows. So if shareholders want to blame anything, I would say they should be blaming the macro calls on what might happen. - Going back to shareholders holding the stock or considering buying...if you think that Fairfax has learned their lesson on macro calls, Fairfax will probably do well in the future. - If you think that Fairfax will continue to try and make these macro bets, then yes, it is possible Fairfax will be out of step. I personally am betting on the former, but at the same time, I manage a considerable amount of my own portfolio and only a portion is in Fairfax. Cheers!

You have so much cash sloshing around that it is hard to find undervalued investments or write insurance business that is priced correctly. Look at the hurricanes the market has seen for the last 5 years, yet pricing pressure isn't even close to what we saw after Hugo 15-16 years ago. Fairfax doesn't have to do well every year, or year to year. All Fairfax has to do is wait for when liquidity is at a premium again. Do we really think that such low interest rates will persist on a global basis? Asset prices as a whole are all hitting highs or close to highs...inflation is non-existent at this point in time. Both elections in the U.S. and Canada...not one person, including Republican/Conservatives are talking about balanced budgets or reducing debt relative to GDP! I've never seen that! The day of reckoning for all of this easy money will come. Only a handful of countries are below 90% debt to GDP...and it ain't any of the large economies! You wait for the fat pitch! Cheers!

Lost more respect than when the stock dropped from $590 to $68 between 1999 and 2003? Now that was a sign the company had lost respect! This is value investing being out of fashion. Unless Ben Graham was wrong, eventually value will become fashionable as people pay attention to fundamentals. But when 1/2 of all capital is moving into index stocks, it's kind of hard to love value stocks. As for the silly comment by Gregmal about "nepotism"...how is it different than Howard Buffett sitting on Berkshire's board? Or the Desmarais family, Thompson family or Weston family? At least both Ben and Christine have finance backgrounds...what the heck is a photographer/farmer doing on Berkshire's board? And I know the Watsa kids quite well...they have learned carefully from their mother and father on what is ethical, what Fairfax means, how to treat shareholders, etc. I'm much more comfortable with the two of them on there than Howard Buffett on Berkshire's board...as nice a guy as Howard is! Cheers!

It's usually at such depths, when investors start to reconsider their investment in Fairfax, when it is ultimately gets rewarded. That being said, there are a handful of things that investors need to understand about Fairfax currently and going forward: - It is no longer really just an insurance company...so any portfolio decisions made are going to have a significant impact...BB, Recipe, SSW, India, Africa, etc. - It's insurance division is far superior to the insurance companies it owned in the past...this is more comparable to Berkshire now...well run, consistent, quality insurers. - Prem has handed over significant responsibilities to others now...the team at Hamblin-Watsa is considerably different and will continue to change when Brian is gone...so results will be different over the next 20 years...equity decisions could be actually better, but I would expect bond/fixed income investments will be worse. - Leadership is young outside of the old core guard...if they picked the team right, this could actually be a better investment than Fairfax itself was over the last decade, so you could be making a big mistake...Paul Rivett is as capable as Prem as a leader. - As long as they get most of it right, the natural asset/equity leverage and long-term float will provide great returns to shareholders...so they don't have to shoot for the moon, just get 4% on the whole portfolio and write 100% CR. - They are now the go to buyer in Canada for assets, alongside Brookfield, and their reputation gets them offers that many other investors wouldn't get. - You don't need to put everything into Fairfax...if you have time to manage assets yourself, you can probably put part with them, part with someone else, and manage a portion yourself...as long as they are not overlapping strategies. Cheers!

+1! Totally agree. Cheers!

There won't be any smog as electric cars become more and more prevalent. Also, the reason test shops are closing is because cars are getting to be extremely efficient and they tend to produce low emissions as they age, rather than burning oil...just better quality...which I don't see deteriorating going forward, but the exact opposite. Cheers!

The problem is that this all comes down to the whole notion that everyone deserves an education (meaning college/university), a home, a job, etc...entitlement! There used to be a time when people would save up for all of these things...or at least a significant portion of it. Hardly anyone puts down 20% now on their first home, but they all believe they should own one. So many students borrow for college...instead of working part/full-time and paying for it as they study. I see parents buying their teenagers cars, putting away money for college, but they don't even plan and save for their own retirement. If you want something, go work, save for it and then buy it or get it. Don't borrow unless you have a growing asset behind it. A communications degree isn't going to guarantee a growing job! Alot of this is bloody common sense is it not? Cheers!

Using about every cliche about the Millennial generation there is. My sample size is small, but from the handful of millennials I als I know from work, no fits this description. As for the student loan bailout, it’s inevitable, imo. Once the millennial generation puts their mark on the political landscape, it’s only a matter of time. Ah, Greg was a grumpy, 65-year old senior when he came out of his mother's womb, so I would take that all with a grain of salt...especially on the $9 avocado toast...it's more like $15 everywhere! That being said, the stats don't lie, and they do show that Millennials are struggling on a broad basis. So maybe not your immediate peer group, but certainly the age category. And truth is that is natural since they come out of school with debt, carry mortgage debt, credit card debt and auto loans as they build their young careers. But the sheer weight is enormous for this age category compared to Boomers, Gen X & Y, etc at the same age. Cheers!

Millennials are struggling with their debt load...in particular student loans, auto loans and credit cards. In fact, delinquencies on student loans are getting dire: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/student-loans-debt-grow-193708816.html I would expect a bailout of some sort in the next Presidential term. Cheers!

+1! Yup, a bunch of as*holes will sleep better tonight. Hope they investigate this! Cheers!

I've had to deal with this on at least four separate occasions in the last 20 years. I sat them down, put all of the information I had gathered in front of them, and helped them figure out options to deal with it...not once did I suggest to bring the capital to me to invest. That way, I cleared my conscience of what I know, helped a friend/client deal with a potential investment timebomb, provided them solutions or options, and never made it about not investing with me. You won't believe the results. Only in one instance did they actually do anything about their portfolio. Three let it ride with the advisor...one brought it over to me to manage. Of the three that let it ride with the advisor...one who was put in an inappropriate annuity ended up ok and got their money back at the end of the annuity...one who was letting their cousin invest their portfolio at a local brokerage kept losing huge sums each year in penny stocks...and the last one who put it in an inappropriate, ill-liquid investment ended up having to let it ride because they could not redeem, and ended up losing 75% of their RRSP. Cheers!

Should not have taken the money out in the first place...for personal use! That's one of the biggest no-no's. Mistakes are one thing...this was a calculated decision to use partner capital to cover personal expenses. Cheers!

Former Bank of Canada Governor and Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, is favorite to lead IMF. Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/christine-lagarde-imf-replacement-mark-carney-050000686.html

I'm sure the British thought the Patriots/Rebels were lefties when they sought independence...thank goodness for lefties! Cheers! No one is stopping them from leaving and colonizing somewhere else! Most of the lefties run all of the tech companies...you would be left with only Twitter. And you would have nothing to ever watch again on television other than Fox News and 100 Huntley. Cheers!