Parsad

Vancouver has similar constraints to New York. Essentially, we have mountains to one side, Pacific Ocean on another and the U.S. border on the third side. So as such, we either build upwards, higher density or east to the Fraser Valley. Cheers!

Rosenberg comments on prices in North Bay, ON. Cheers! David Rosenberg on Twitter: "I'm going to change the Einstein definition of insanity to this: when home prices in North Bay, Ontario begin to look like a dotcom stock in 1999. There's a whole lot of pain, globally speaking, if (when) this housing bubble bursts. https://t.co/NTR4H2Z7WT" / Twitter

Hi All, Please move this discussion over to the Coronavirus thread on the Politics Forum. Same username and password as the Investment Forum. https://politics.thecobf.com/topic/37583-coronavirus/?tab=comments#comment-1240380 Thanks! Sanjeev

Incidentally, Fairfax doesn't have to monetize their BB position. I think it would be equally beneficial if BB did something similar to AMC and did a at the market equity raise as well. BB raising $1-2B at these prices would be as good as FFH selling or monetizing their BB investment. Cheers!

Fairfax is one of the most opportunistic companies out there. They couldn't capitalize on BB last time, because the convertible debt agreement restricted any sale of BB for six months. They said they looked at all different ways to capitalize on it...Wade and Roger sold their shares so you know half the investment team thought it was over fair value...it wasn't like Brian and Prem were sitting on their asses eating potato chips and watching hockey. If they haven't capitalized on it some way this time, then I will agree with you. But the opportunity to sell or monetize last time simply wasn't there. Cheers!

Also, that analyst's comments were some of the dumbest things I've ever heard. Do they actually know how in depth Fairfax goes before making a large investment...I've talked to the analysts who work there, I've seen the reports, articles, statements on their desks...I've talked in depth about investments with Brian, Roger, Chandran, Prem...I know how their team tears apart an idea that anyone brings forth for investment...Wade, Lawrence come from the Cundill environment, which should speak for itself. Just because their investment ideas don't necessarily fit in the framework of what shareholders, analysts or other managers frame their ideas in, doesn't mean the work isn't there. Cheers!

I think they'll monetize a significant portion of the shares as lumber peaks towards the end of the summer...maybe at $25-28 per share. Might even get taken out by a larger international player. In terms of Atlas, I've owned it since under $8 for about 3 years. Essentially doubled my holdings during the March 2020 collapse of the market. Sold half in my taxable accounts around $14, and am holding the rest. I've been watching and following Sokol since he left Berkshire. I think he's extremely talented at understanding distressed scalable, high capex businesses that are normally cyclical, and then converting them into consistently, cash flowing businesses that have reduced operating risk compared to their peers. Atlas has become the fastest growing shipping lessor with long-term guaranteed contracts, flexible supportive financing...and they will slowly diversify into a handful of consistently cash flowing businesses that dominate their respective space. He's also very good at finding talent. Cheers!

How come no one is talking about Fairfax's stake in Resolute Forest Products? The one that everyone was hacking apart 2-3 years ago, and now sits at nearly $20 per share as lumber prices soar! Up $5 a share since the end of Q1 and up over 300% since the end of 2019. Owning 40% of a $1.5B lumber company sounds pretty good right now...alongside a 40% stake in a rapidly growing $3.3B shipping company...10% of a $6.5B telecommunications company...30% of one of Greece's largest banks valued at nearly $3B...some pretty interesting large stake turnarounds that are taking hold for Fairfax. Combine that with a very hard insurance market, tons of dry powder and soon to be $1.3B in holding company cash after paying off the revolver...looking like $700 CDN at the end of the year looks reasonable. Especially if India's 2nd wave drop takes significant hold and the Indian economy starts churning again over the next few months. Cheers!

Sure, I would agree with some of that. But the actual mRNA technology used in the Pfizer/Moderna vaccines is not new. It's been researched and developed for over 30 years. So it's not like the world came up with this overnight. The technology was there. Cheers!

Yeah, but that works both ways...one group says one thing...the other group says the opposite. After everything that has happened...reviews, recalculations, court cases, audits, secondary audits...there is still nothing showing any fraud from the election, but you still have people digging. Vaccines, Wuhan, even frickin' kneeling during the anthem...each side has their own narrative, and neither side wants to listen to the facts. What else is new? Cheers!

I understand your sentiment, but you can't have it both ways: - The vaccine may have side effects, even though none have come to light other than 1/100,000 or greater chances of blood clot or inflammation of the heart...so the anti-vaxxers say wait for the long-term effects and evidence. - The virus came out of a lab, but the conspiracy theorists said let's not wait for evidence. Which is it...do we base decisions on evidence or speculation? As value investors, you invest based on evidence or fundamentals. As a speculator, you invest based on speculation. I would imagine that value investors are an evidence-based group, but perhaps the recent influx of capital by value investors into crypto should indicate otherwise! Cheers!

This was what I was talking about yesterday...I'm glad the U.S. government acted so quickly! Cheers!

No it doesn't! But it is hilariously accurate...including the cheating and character part. Cheers!

Well I think the public has their limits: Bill Cosby's entire life of good work is now completely overshadowed by the terrible things he did in his personal life...no one is ever going to celebrate any positive thing Cosby has done. There have been a ton of horrendous allegations and prosecutions against priests in the Catholic church...and I think the reputation of the Catholic church has been irreparably harmed...anything positive the church does lives in the shadows of its atrocities. Cheers!

But what is it? Cheers!

Have you ever had second thoughts about a decision? I'm assuming Buffett is human and fallible. Also, relationships and the nuances around them probably aren't Buffett's strengths. Calling him a douche for changing his mind is probably a little extreme. Cheers!

You also have to remember that certain desirable locations to live like Vancouver, are limited on growth by three natural borders (mountains, ocean and U.S. border). So a city like Vancouver has only two ways to grow...out towards the valley (east) or up (condos/towers). That puts additional pressure on prices in the region on top of any bubble. Cheers!

Buffett wanted The Snowball to be open and candid about his life, and gave Alice full access to everything, including his personal letters that other writers never had access to. Unfortunately, when the final draft came out, the stuff about Susie made some family members upset, which led Buffett to reconsider what was written. I have no idea if he asked Alice to remove some things or not, but I suspect something of that nature may have happened, and that's why he stopped talking to her...perhaps she refused to take anything out. I don't know. All I know is that he and family members were upset with how Susie was portrayed, even if it was essentially the truth. Cheers!

Test

For the Chinese, the ban on crypto is more to do with unwanted outflows of capital. China has extremely tight control on citizens/expats/businesses moving capital outside of China...they don't want to see an exodus, nor can they support a large-scale exodus of wealth and capital. For years, capital has been flowing outside of China through BTC transactions in Macau...they have tried to cutoff the head there, but little luck. They want to make sure mainstream Chinese institutions aren't moving capital outside using crypto as well. Frankly, I'm surprised more nations aren't banning crypto...there is so much illegal activity occurring through crypto's ability to hide transactions and the ownership of wallets. The amount of tax evasion occurring should also worry nation states. I suspect the current batch of crypto's demise will come when nation states or large corporations issue their own digital currencies that are more stable, efficient and accepted internationally through mainstream institutions. Cheers!

This is not quite correct. Susie essentially became involved with someone else when she left Omaha and began living in California on a more permanent basis. Buffett was completely loyal to his wife, even after she made this decision. They were basically two very different people who fell in love, married, had children, and then Susie realized she had spent much of her life devoted to Buffett, Berkshire and the children, and wasn't able to pursue the life she was missing. Once she had become involved with someone else, and Buffett was alone, she asked Astrid to check in on Buffett from time to time as a friend and companion...not necessarily a lover. Eventually a relationship formed with Astrid, as Buffett and Susie while still married, were not really together any longer...they remained loyal to each other as friends and parents, but were living two different lives. This is one of the reasons Buffett stopped any contact with Alice Schroeder (who wrote The Snowball), as he had kept the incorrect story alive...that he was the one who became involved with Astrid and that Susie lived with Buffett's infidelity. Schroeder while revealing the true story, actually ended up destroying her relationship with Buffett. In other words, for decades, Buffett was thought of as a cheating billionaire, when that wasn't really true...Buffett was ok with that, as he loved Susie dearly...but the truth was much more different than what the public understood. So the comparison to Gates is not accurate at all. Cheers!

Way to go rkbabang! Your one of the few who can say you've actually been to the moon! Cheers!

I hope there is no more to this than Epstein having been a donor...but often in these cases, it's just the tip of the iceberg. Especially with the number of times Gates met with Epstein and travelled on his private jet a few times. Cheers!

I put up the March 31, 2021 numbers on my post above...accidentally mislabeled it March 31, 2020. One quarter difference changed the results that much for 1, 3 and 5 years...what do you think will happen as value stocks continue to outperform over 2021 and 2022? Cheers!

For a guy managing over $500M and sitting on a private insurer worth somewhere north of $150M, your belief that Francis is all washed up is right on the money! The nerve of this guy to keep doing something he loves, treat his investors equitably and just plain be a nice guy. Mohnish is also another one...why do these guys continue to live and do what they enjoy! Assholes! At the end of 2019, Francis' compounded returns for the Associates Fund in USD was: December 31, 2019 (Series A) 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years 20 Years Chou Associates Fund ($US)1 6.5% 0.0% -4.8% 3.5% 4.0% 7.4% S&P 500 ($US) 31.5% 15.3% 11.7% 13.5% 9.0% 6.1% His numbers ending March 31, 2020: Chou Associates Fund (USD) 85.02% 7.45% 7.43% 2.61% 3.73% 8.41% As you can see, numbers can be skewed significantly due to single year or multi-year under/over performance. With one really good year, Francis' continues to out perform the S&P500 in USD since inception and the numbers over 3 years and 5 years increased dramatically. So you cannot look at performance in a vacuum. Alot of value managers have struggled over the last few years with a rampant bull market. That doesn't mean their results will remain dismal...I suspect Mohnish's numbers will also be skewed heavily in his favour through 2021 and 2022 as fundamental stock picking becomes more important than momentum. Cheers!