bizaro86

If anyone has a copy of the transcript with Kernan edited out, that would be much appreciated. Man he is terrible.

I like Ferrero, hadn't thought of that. Anther good place to put a bunch of capital would be airplane leasing, although I'm not sure if anyone is cheap in the space. I came to post DIS and saw someone had. Perfect for BRK. Big media Co, brings cap cities back in the fold. Some of his biggest wins ever (KO) have been big cap "obvious" growth companies on the verge of a change in business model/stepchange in profits. For KO it was international, for DIS it is building a huge international streaming business out of their/fox back catalogue. Plus, DIS is capital constrained. You could put the cash flow from BRK to work building cruise ships, parks, resorts and hotels. The fact they haven't built a new Disney Vacation Club in California for 11 years, is one example of that. (I know they finally have one planned...)

Where are you shorting this? No availability at IB? Do the Canadian brokers have it available?

I have a relative who mapped agricultural exports to Canada by congressional district for the government of Canada. I can only think of one reason they'd want that, especially since the next request was an analysis of which seats were the least safe for incumbents...

I also think if article's about long term underperformance and no catalysts are coming out, the relative value in Canada is probably pretty good.

Shut in of oilsands producers wouldn't be possible, imo. What might be would be a restriction on the TCPL Nova system coming into AB from BC. Cut BC nat gad production, which will hurt station 2 pricing and kill BC royalties, while helping AECO gas prices in Alberta.

Decency vs indecency is a good metric, but so is logic. And it would be farcical to expect the US to import coal from China, so the idea that anyone with it enough to become rich would spend money promoting that idea seems pretty unlikely to me.

DREAM solves the liquidity crunch. They are now very net cash at the holdco and have virtually no recourse debt. There's no liquidity crunch - just a question mark over whether you really want these guys allocating that cash. Judging by the carrying value vs. cost of the investment and equity-accounted portfolios as of q3 they are very good at buying high. I would value a stack of hundreds in my safe deposit box at face value. I would value a stack of hundreds a crazy guy had lit on fire at zero, even if they theoretically belonged to me. I'm not totally sure where Dundee fits on the scale, but their record is pretty bad on some of this stuff. That being said, they do have $2 in retained earnings for every $1 in capital raised. If they would stick to building and selling financial services businesses instead of investing in speculative nonsense this would probably be a great investment.

Things I think are under earning: Labour - corporate profits very high vs wages Disney - content library monetization via streaming service a meaningful catalyst in 2019+ Canadian oil/gas - WCS and AECO spreads should both come in, even without new pipelines

@thepupil probably the best post on the board for awhile. Thanks! I agree with you on pretty much all of these, and am long FRPH and NYRT for the same reasons. I wish the Hawaiian ground leases were separate and not run by someone who will do a bad job. Honestly a bank trustee to cash cheques and send dividends would be enough. Under those circumstances I would allocate huge there at anything over 4% cap. That's a generational wealth asset.

I won't be writing any puts. If I could at a reasonable cost I'd buy 5yr $20K calls and 5yr $5K puts. I'm almost positive that in 5 years BTC will either be way above $20k (like $100k+) or way less than $5k (like close to or equal to $0). That does seem like the best (hypothetical) way to play bitcoin.

I'd be willing to pay up for a 5 year put at $5k, but wouldn't sell a naked call because the scenario where I'm wrong BTC has no upper limit. The seller of a $5k put has a maximum of $5k downside. I would definitely be willing to sell a BTC call at $15k paired with a long call at $20k. (Bear call spead)

I'm sure there will be some winners with crypto, and if you pick them successfully you'll make money. That's probably true with pot as well, and given the level of regulation that can be expected I think tobacco is a better comparable than avocados. I own neither, and have no intention of buying either. I might put together a basket of shorts at some point, some of the ones that have no actual business or prospects and are just riding hype.

The whole basis of this thread is flawed. You are supposing that there will be long term winners in this space to brag about. I disagree. Pot is an agricultural product that is easily grown by anyone (even by yourself in your own garden). That is like saying you are going to get rich investing in tomatoes. Unless the government steps in and creates an artificial monopoly (i.e. licensing only certain companies to grow and/or sell it), then I don't see what competitive advantage any one grower or seller has over any other. I'm sure there will be name brands with proprietary strains and pretty packaging, but that is a long way off and impossible to predict. I think the safest long term bet to profit from pot would be Altria, probably not a bad idea actually. I don't think that's what he's saying at all. Crypto was the #1 performing asset class of 2017, but Canadian marijuana stocks were probably number 2, with many/most up hundreds of percent. As just one example, TSX:WEED is a 10 bagger in the last 18 months or so. Of course, its market cap was unreasonably large before that 10X, and at $7 billion is absurd, its clearly a bubble. But there are people who are absolutely convinced that everyone is going to start using marijuana recreationally, and that these companies are the next MO because of it. Maybe there will be a couple of winners out of this (probably) but I don't see a way to find them in advance, and the valuations assume that all the companies will be big winners, but that's absurd. Very much like crypto, actually. Maybe one or two coins will work out as long term stores of value, but the world doesn't need hundreds of crypto-currencies, so most will flame out. Plus, the companies changing from ice-tea (for example) to crypto probably don't have a durable competitive advantage in crypto currency, so the fact their stocks are going up on a name change is absurd. Basically, there are two big bubbles right now, and we have a thread with people discussing their big gains in one. Surprising that no one has big gains on the other to brag about. I was the only one who admitted owning any of them, and I only had it as a merger arb position. The two segments don't seem that different to me in bubblyness, so I'd be surprised if we had buyers of one but not the other on the forum.

Thanks! That's actually hilarious, as I've owned Bri-Chem for a couple of years, I first saw it mentioned here: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4021454-bri-chem-trades-cheaply-even-75-percent-move-2-months

Well that was fast. I sold my CMED today for a bit over $37. My consistent history is to sell way too soon on speculative nonsense stuff, so this may be an entry signal, I'm not sure. I think I'll go invest my ill gotten gains in a net-net, if anyone has any suggestions.

Thanks, I appreciate that! I have a reflexive anti-bubble attitude, and had a really hard time putting on the merger arb trade, even though I would have done it without question had the companies in question sold industrial machine parts or something. I'm trying to be open minded about special situation opportunities without buying into speculative mania, which is a surprisingly hard line to walk. I suspect those put buyers are paying a rational price for the puts, but its tough because with volatility so expensive you need to get the timing right. Maybe bear call spreads?

I had a short CMED long HIP merger arbitrage that made a ridiculous return when HIP went up 5x in a week after they got a regulatory approval. I closed the position with HIP at $2, so missed the top but pretty happy that my 15% spread turned into a 4x. Sized it small like all arbs, so won't move the needle too much. Now have a small CMED long position just over $24, since the Aurora offer should put a bit of a floor at $24, and I think Aurora can raise their bid with more funny money. Very speculative and small. Gives me something to do when I'm waiting for actual value ideas. I owned Village Farms when all they grew was tomatoes as a value play, and sold on the initial double after the announcement they were switching to marijuana.

I have various dealings with all 5 big Canadian banks, and over time I seem to be migrating more and more of it to RBC. Mostly happens when one of the others screws something up, something that has gone smoothly in the past at RBC...

I would echo the comments that I don't like the choices. I'd put a write in vote for IBKR.

Part of it is the differential. Many companies on the list don't sell WTI, they sell WCS.

I think it's reasonable to expect market value as a multiple of intrinsic value to go up though, simply because the BRK investor base (including WEB) have been talking about P/B for so long.

Heaven forbid they trim down management expenses a bit as the business shrinks.

Yes, definitely start a VVI thread. Your write-up was very good, and its definitely an interesting company. I have had it on my watch list for years.

I love VVI, and have for some time, especially the former Brewster businesses. I'm concerned about two things though, and would be interested in hearing any comments. The first is where we are in the cycle. I can't shake the idea that this might be a cyclical dressed up as a growth company, and that buying after a big economic expansion might be a mistake. I would love to hear why I'm wrong on this one. Recent acquisitions don't seem strong to me. AV seems more likely to commoditize than booth/event management, especially as tech gets cheaper. I would have preferred they continued to outsource. Also, flyover seems like a way weaker attraction than something like the Banff Gondola, so you're diluting the business quality. Flyover has no moat, anyone can buy a motion simulator and rent some space, but the government isn't likely to rent out another mountain in Banff for a gondola. 100% moat vs no moat. Anyway, would love to hear why I'm wrong on this, as pursuit (why rename it?) Is a business I would like to buy and hold forever.