bizaro86
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Posts posted by bizaro86
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Live footage of RK/Parsad...
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4 hours ago, scorpioncapital said:
Why do the government bureaucrats have to do all these supply and demand laws and actions? I mean, it sounds to me that by not allowing the free market to operate, there is not an incentive to bring supply and demand in balance. A lack of desire to invest and capital flight. If the government wants to raise taxes to 80% and build all the housing stock itself, why not? Well, that doesn't work so well either. There are lots of slum-type apartment complexes in former Soviet countries - they are falling apart, was constructed poorly, and while it houses lots of people it isn't exactly a good quality of life.
"3.) Rents in Vancouver are controlled by the government. Same for older housing stock in Toronto. So in the same building two of the exact same units can rent for $1,500/month and $3,000/month. So no renters can afford to move today - your rent is going to double if you do. The rental market is effectively frozen. "
Isn't this an arbitrage situation? Switch all the 1500/month rents to 3000/month and the investor/landlord doubles their money?
They have rent control. You can't raise the rent more than ~2% per year unless the tenant moves out. But since the tenant would have to pay double elsewhere they aren't likely to move.
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I would roll forward the losses and just be mentally aware that I can sell some winners without tax considerations.
Whether you pay 0 tax on winners now or later doesn't make any difference, and I think being able to trim things that get overvalued without tax considerations can sometimes improve returns.
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42 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
How do people here about tail risk for Berkshire
BHE - utilities have huge tail risk if they cause fires now.
Apple - risk of China syndrome
Then we have the catastrophe risk from the insurance business.
Something to think about if you have a huge position.
The apple one is interesting. In the last week or so (in round numbers) the market price of their Apple stake is down about $12B.
Now, that takes it down to levels it first achieved like 3 months ago, so not exactly a huge deal, but still, definitely a large position.
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I thought the recent VIC post on WTW (in free with login mode) https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/WILLIS_TOWERS_WATSON_PLC/8662645288
Was interesting. I could summarize the thesis as: this is a good business trading at a low price. Probably something good will happen, and if it doesn't organic/inflationary growth probably keeps you whole.
I bought a starter. I have no relevant experience with insurance brokers, and following one seemed like a good way to learn.
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3 hours ago, boilermaker75 said:
I am teaching a new class this Fall for first year engineering students. It is titled "Keys to Learning." I actually did not know anything that is in this course till about 10-15 years ago when I started looking into what was known about learning. And that was after having taught at the university level for >25 years! I wrote a book for the course to consolidate everything I found on learning from my researches and my now 39 years of teaching. I had to have the book ready when classes started, so I had to go the Kindle route. It is such an easy way to get a book published. I did buy ISBN numbers, which you actually do not have to do if just publishing a Kindle book. I also made up, and registered, a fictitious business name so it sounds like I actually have a publisher.
I took epistemology in high school and have been interested in the subject ever since. Would you be willing to post (or DM) a link to your book?
To keep this somewhat on topic (as I'll likely write my own book someday...) I'm curious whether you (or the others who have self published) found value in making your book available via Kindle Unlimited.
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I don't think that's true at all - I think it's just hindsight bias. It's easy to see the growth companies of the 80s because you already know how it turned out, which makes it seem obvious. If it was easy/obvious at the time Lynch's results wouldn't have been so much better than everyone else's.
I don't know what the current crop of amazing growth companies are, but I'm pretty confident they exist.
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Is it important to you the payments be smooth? If not, I think VCI and LIF will both payout high average yields, but they'll be lumpy.
VCI is a glass recycler that crushes bottles and sells the pieces to fiberglass manufacturers. They are the only firm that does this in Alberta, and there are multiple fiberglass manufacturers here, because of cheap natural gas. I think this is a great niche business.
LIF has a royalty and equity stake in a large, long life iron mine. They dividend out basically all cash flow, which varies dramatically with iron ore prices. On average I think payouts will be higher than your list above but much more variable.
Final idea is MRD. Real estate owner and developer. Land business has huge tailwind as people move to AB from BC/ON to escape onerous housing prices. Yield is 5.4%, and owned RE portfolio/management of a captive reit are significant here, so the development land is more gravy than necessary to tread water.
I own all 3. Finally, I think Canadian prefs are very cheap right now. I'm still in the accumulation phase so Im not converting my LIRA to a LIF any time soon, but I levered up a taxable account for my wife (whose taxable income is much lower than mine) and put the money in prefs. She'll pay very low net taxes on the dividends because the dividend tax credit is figured on the top bracket while she pays in a low bracket, and the margin interest is still 100% deductible so the tax benefits are very real. Floating rates from good companies pay around 10%, and since it moves with floating rates the interest rate risk from funding with floating rates is lessened. I think these are potentially a good source of retirement income - they don't have the dividend growth side covered, but you could pair them. Eg, something with a low but growing payout for the future with a pref to cover the now.
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3 hours ago, Paarslaars said:
Come on you must be joking...
No one watches the women's cup.
I'm on vacation in Australia right now, and they're definitely following it here. Random tourist guides mention it in their spiel, signs/ads everywhere, etc.
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13 hours ago, crs223 said:
I’ve been without a car for 3.5 years. My wife has one and I have an e-bike. I take the bus if it’s raining and I use Lyft if I’m in a bind. I take a few Lyft rides per month. We have two kids (7 and 10). I work at the office 5 days a week which is 9 miles from home. My town (Santa Barbara) is perfectly “shaped” for bike riding — can get anywhere in 45 minutes.
Just the thought of paying sales tax on a new car makes me roll my eyes.
All that being said… a friend took me for a ride in a Tesla Plaid a few weeks ago and I can’t stop thinking about it. I’d like to just rent one for a few days. I’ve seen “Turo” (like Uber but for rental cars). I wonder if it makes sense to buy a fast Tesla and just rent it out on Turo… probably not.
Probably better to rent a fast Tesla on Turo when you want one.
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1 hour ago, Castanza said:
Melbourne is a big city
. I mean you could say that about any futurism ideas. Lyft said in 2016 that half of their vehicles would be autonomous by 2021….now experts are yet again pushing back that timeline to 2035. The promise of autonomous cars was announced in 1939 and the New York Worlds Fair by General Morors. The timeline was 20 years LOL….here we are almost 100 years later and albeit much closer, still a long way to go. I mean GMs Cruze still can’t navigate “unexpected construction zones” and just pulls over in traffic causing jams. There is easily 20 years of regulatory red tape to deal with. Let alone proper connectivity and other key infrastructure. I mean you can go 1 hour outside of a lot of major cities in the US and find areas with dial up internet poor cell service and dirt roads. Same for Canada.
Eventually! But just my opinion it will be a bit. Maybe AI accelerates it? Can’t help but think it’s more bark than bite at this point. Innovation usually happens in the areas people don’t discuss in the media.
I agree with all of that - there are a number of issues that will be difficult. But it isnt the same as fusion (another one that is always 10 years away), where the issues are the laws of physics. This one the biggest issues are human laws and risk tolerance - I think self drivers are probably approx as good as the average human now. But San Francisco is a bastion of over-regulating everything, and if they're allowing commercial use it's definitely getting closer.
Melbourne is definitely a big city, and big cities will naturally be early adopters for this. But the cost of having a human driving the car is really significant - if you eliminate that part the cost of having a car at all times within 60 seconds probably goes down enough that spreads to the suburbs and smaller cities. So they have a huge percentage of the market to work with- if it's never practical for rural areas that doesn't matter given the relative populations.
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18 hours ago, Castanza said:
Not only that but it completely ignores simple things like:- Random emergency
- Popping over to a friends/parents
- Kids sporting events/practice
- Random schedule changes
- Forgot the avocado on taco Tuesday
- Joy ride on a lazy afternoon evening
- Helping a buddy move something
The amount of random “I need a vehicle now” moments there are in life makes the planning and waiting aspect of this ride hailing dubious at best.
Also zero chance I want to send my car out while I’m not using it to taxi random people around. People have no respect for others things. Have enough friend who did Uber that have enough stories of people kissing, throwing trash, smoking, getting to third base etc. all in their car. That only goes up with a driverless vehicle imo. No way I want that stuff in my “family car”.
If there ever is a world where we don’t own vehicles (or other things as World Economic Forum/UN has said) I hope I and my children’s children are long dead by that time.
People who come up with predictions like this seem to think the world is binary like a SIMS game. Ignores the nuance that makes life beautiful and human imo.
I'm in Melbourne on vacation and have been taking Uber everywhere except the day we did a road trip (rented a car for 1 day). I haven't waited longer than 60 seconds to be picked up, and that was with drivers.
People will only switch from their own car if autonomous taxis are just as convenient or cheaper (and some people won't switch unless it's both).
If you don't need a driver and insurance is cheap due to few accidents, you really only have capital costs. That means you can have many, many cars on the road, which keeps the convenience high. If capital costs come down (and the autonomous part is mostly a software/sensors problem) the cost should also come down.
It might take 5 years or 25 but it'll happen.
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8 hours ago, stahleyp said:
I bet they feel important now. If a government, that is (right now, at least) the world's reserve currency and strongest military...isn't AAA, what could be?
Debt investing is about two things - ability and willingness to pay. Investors often abridge this to ability to pay, but willingness matters as well. If a car loan borrower decides not to pay and let the car be repossessed, that isn't good for the lender generally, which is why people with a job and a history of responsible behavior get better rates than those with a job and no credit history.
The US govt debt is all in USD, and they can always print more so ability to pay is a non-issue. But there are political hijinks around the debt ceiling pretty often now, and if you play chicken enough times eventually both drivers don't turn and everyone dies. I think a default on the US debt (where at least some principal/interest doesn't get paid on time) is likely enough for political reasons that AAA doesn't seem like right rating.
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On 7/24/2023 at 3:28 PM, Parsad said:
Searing won't stop the juices from coming out, but it does reduce the amount of juice lost. The caramelization from searing is what provides that fantastic flavor in a good steak, hamburger, roast, whatever. Grilling at high temperature then reducing the heat has a similar effect. If you've ever had meat seared and unseared, the flavor profile difference is huge! Cheers!
Seared food tasted better because of the flavours from the Maillard reaction (the carmelization you mentioned).
You're also correct that it won't stop the juices from coming out, which is why it doesn't reduce the amount of juices lost. That can be demonstrated experimentally, it's definitely true.
Again, not saying you shouldn't sear food, but imo knowing the reason something is a good idea is often useful. Especially when you're trying to generalize a mental model from one area to another.
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3 hours ago, Saluki said:
If you love grilling, get it, you can afford it. My dad has a "quincho" which is like a covered gazebo with a special large charcoal pit for grilling, where the grill can go up and down with a winch (?). I'm sure it costs more than an Egg, and he loves it.
I'm sure the people who buy these, are in two camps. People who love old school grilling and people who want to show off. I see the same phenomenom everywhere. In jiu jitsu, a common brand of uniform is Fuji (like the Honda Civic of BJJ Gis). It's $80, and people usually have several because they take a couple of days to air dry. There are several "high end" brands like Shoyoroll which are $350. And there are some minor things that people love about them (the inside of the collar is foam, not cotton, so it dries faster; it has a liner on the inside which makes it less harsh on your skin etc.). And the people who buy them either train everyday and are really good, or they are the people who have a lot of money. If you have ten Shoyorolls, that's the price of a used car.
When I sold cameras, a lot of people bought Nikon SLR cameras. Some where professionals who appreciated that it had metal everywhere vs brands like Canon where the flange that attaches to lens is plastic. Other people had no business buying an SLR but they bought it because it was a signaling device.
So I don't know which camp everyone is in, but if it makes your grilling experience more enjoyable, even if you are grilling alone, then go for it. I'm not the ideal customer. I used to have a charcoal BBQ and I enjoyed the process but eventually switched to propane b/c it's just so much easier. But I have friends who have smokers and will cook something for hours and I love being invited over when they do.
Great post. If you're truly going to use it and love grilling stuff, then definitely get it.
I love cooking outdoors. I smoke pork shoulders in the winter here even if it's -15C. I have multiple a searing nat gas grill and a pellet smoker, plus a charcoal smoker at my father-in-laws cabin.
But I take pictures for functional memory making reasons, and my phone is fine for that. And I exercise for not-dying purposes, so the gym shorts I bought at Ross 10 years ago are fine for that.
You need to decide whether this is something that's important to you or not. The egg is a perfectly excellent product- but in and of itself it won't make you enjoy grilling/smoking if you don't already.
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2 hours ago, Castanza said:
That SeriousEats article It says searing steaks doesn't actually hold in juice, also says you can cut right into them without letting them rest....Hell even the test kitchen did a cooked from frozen steak and it had less gray banding than one at fridge temp. But the reality is, you don't see any chefs not searing theirs steaks and you definitely don't see them cooking steaks from frozen.....idk about that haha
I consider fully thawed and in the fridge to be basically "room temp" from a food safety standpoint. Usually I get it out of the fridge and let it sit about 20min which brings the temp down maybe a handful of degrees. It is an interesting discussion though and you can certainly find articles justifying either or! Different strokes for different folks!
I'd rather copy Bourdain, Weissman, Ramsay or Alton than AmericasTestKitchen though....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmC9SmCBUj4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdHE2zgSaxU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4aI_O8kcN8
If you're talking frozen meat I agree it needs to be thawed before you cook it. But if you're looking for top quality food I also recommend cooking from fresh, un-frozen meat.
If you are storing fresh meat in the fridge letting it rest at room temperature makes no appreciable difference. It's one of those things people do because that's how they were taught, not because it helps.
On searing: serious eats is correct that it doesn't hold in juices. You can prove it by cooking 2 steaks, searing one and seeing the mass % shrinkage on both. It won't make a difference. That doesn't mean searing isn't awesome though. You need the high temp Maillard reactions for top quality grilled food.
I read the piece again - it doesn't say not to rest meat after cooking (which you should do to let the juice reincorporate back into the meat as it cools) it says there's no need to rest BEFORE cooking.
There are a few bits about how you only lose juices around the cut area when you cut a steak, which is true but silly. Check doneness with a thermometer not a knife and your eyes. We're dealing with science here!
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16 hours ago, fareastwarriors said:
the RMR folks are really something.
I don't really get the attraction to DHC. The activists can probably block the merger with OPI if they want, but then they're left with an RMR managed bunch of seniors housing buildings? Or are they planning to also fire RMR and pay the (huge) break fee. Because IMO they can't pay that break fee without raising money.
No dog in that fight, except that I was long DHC/short OPI as a merger spread. I closed it for a profit when the spread went to 0, so I missed the run up in DHC to a -100% spread...
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2 hours ago, Castanza said:
One of the biggest things people do wrong with any meat (steak, ribs, brisket etc.) is not letting them come to room temp before cooking. You can make solid ribs in your oven in about 2 hours.
There is plenty of science based evidence that the above doesn't matter. Meat at fridge temp is fine.
See:
And
https://amazingribs.com/technique-and-science/myths/let-meat-come-to-room-temp/
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What do you want to do with it? The big advantage those have is they can get very high temperatures for searing.
You can also use them as a smoker, so they do have dual function. But they're a lot more work to keep at temperature for smoking than something like a pellet grill (Traeger most commonly, but lots of other brands).
I considered getting one, but decided to keep my natural gas grill (which gets pretty hot) and buy a Traeger. So now I have 2 things but I'm pretty sure I use the traeger more than I would have used the egg.
Obviously YMMV. I bought it at Costco.
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I've done it a few times on BRK (once in spring 2020 which is probably my biggest mistake by $ value ever). I was fine to buy BRK during covid lows at the prices assigned, but there were so many better bargains I sold all the BRK, realized large losses, and reinvested elsewhere. That worked out better than keeping the BRK but not nearly as good as not writing the puts to begin with.
That said, I still do so occasionally, although more often with stocks that have more "controversy" around them, as the premiums/implied volatility is higher. JOE is one I've made money selling puts in the last year, for example, and I would have been fine getting assigned at the $40 strike.
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45 minutes ago, LC said:
OXY is another one. The warrants are attractive, you can sell short term calls against.
Selling calls against warrants is much more margin intensive than selling them against stock or longer dated calls.
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I have a Google One account (paid). They got me with the Photos app - it's so much better than storing them on a regular drive somewhere (search by person, location, etc).
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@viking have you considered preferreds? Canadian floaters are paying double digit rates. SLF.PR.J, ALA.PR.B etc.
The spreads have blown out the last while, so I think in the mid term your chances for cap gains might be comparable to a diverse group of dividend paying big caps
I bought some with borrowed money in my wife's name recently - her lower tax bracket, the dividend tax credit, and the deduction on the interest paid works out very favorably tax wise and the spread is material.
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2 hours ago, thepupil said:
I think pretty much everyone would agree with you. I've highlighted the key qualifier. Applying a DCA approach assumes a portfolio to which one is able to add through a downturn and is not utilizing for any purpose other than to build wealth for some far out purpose. Most would agree that on a 15-20+ year time horizon stocks will beat bonds/cash.
Using DHI as an example. DHI has returned 12.3% / year for the last 20 years.
I just did a quick spreadsheet using last 20 years of monthly total returns. Here's your IRR's at various withdrawal rates (with no upward adjustments for inflation, so monthly distribution is the same.
$10K invested 20 years ago
WR IRR Ending
0% 12.3% $99K
5% 10.8% $44K
10% 5.2% Depletes in 5/2017 (notice that despite the 20 year return of the asset being greater than the withdrawal rate, the corpus is depleted in year 14, volatility and withdrawals kill the corpus)
Now let's reverse it. What if we add money? We add 5% of initial 10k / year 10% and 20%
Savings Rate IRR Ending
5% 13% $155K (on $20K total invested, $10K initially then $42/month)
10% 13.4% $210K (on $30K total invested, $10K initially then $84/month)
20% 13.9% $321K (on $50K total invested, $10K initially then $166/month)
So it's the same as the point I made elsewhere, one's attitude toward volatility depends on whether or not one is adding to the overall portfolio as well as the correlation between investments.
I ran this quickly. I may be wrong. Feel free to check/challenge as you wish.
@Gregmal one thing I've always found befuddling about your comments on this subject is you simultaneously espouse high qithdrawal rates ("you don't need that much money to do ________ and 4% rule is dumb") and immunity to volatility. The two ideas in my mind are contradictory and potentially dangerous in combination to all but the most adept of investors (which you likely are) but it would lead to ruin for many others.
EDIT/ADD:
same with bond index for last 20 years, which has returned 3% / yr
WR IRR Ending
0% 3.0% $18K
5% 3.6% $5.7K
10% 4.4% Depletes in 6/2016 (Here the corpus is depleted because bonds by themselves aren't generating adequate return. In both DHI's and bonds' case, you die but for two different reasons. The "safe" bonds don't earn enough. DHI makes enough on a long enough time horizon but is too volatile for a 10% WR).
So there's no question here. Investing in DR Horton instead of the bond index was superior 20 years ago. Even at a 10% withdrawal rate. But at a 10% withdrawal rate, DR Horton is only 80 bps of IRR better and depletes 1 year later despite returning much more than bonds. So if you think you can identify stuff that will make 12% / yr for the next 20 years...that will likely beat the snot out of bonds (which are currently priced to return 4.8% ish / yr. But as with everything it a big fat "it depends"
Now let's get crazy and assume 70% DHI / 30% bonds, rebalanced at the end of every month
WR IRR Ending
0% 11.15% $81K
5% 10.5% $41K <---note this is just 7% less than 100% DHI and distributions are the same.
10% 8.4% $340 <---We are on the verge of depletion, BUT we lasted over 6 years longer than 100% DHI.
Notice how by doing 70/30 we didn't reduce overall IRR by that much relative to 100% DHI? And at higher withdrawal rates the addition of the safe asset improved IRR and increased survival.
But let's assume again rather than subtracting we're adding, just doing the add 20% with the 70 /30, I get a 12% IRR / ending value of $244K, which is 24% less than the almost 14% / $321K for DHI.
So at the risk of obnoxious repetition, whether you like volatility depends on whether you're adding or subtracting to the portfolio. Highest and most volatile CAGR WINS if adding.
This is basically MPT which most value investors call bullshit. But it's not really all bullshit.
This is a great post, thanks for making it. I was half way through and had it quoted planning to ask about a rebalancing between the two options.
Thinking about it, since in practice I'm more on the Gregmal side where my portfolio tends to go between 90% and 120% long equities, I wonder if there are quality companies with very low correlations you could rebalance between. I suppose probably not, because the time when rebalancing from bonds pays all the benefits is like 2008-2009 and spring 2020 when basically all equities are down.
What are you buying today?
in General Discussion
Posted
John - I had to read the caption twice. I was absolutely convinced you had, for reasons unknown, posted a map of Canada's oilsands. Because in size and location what you've posted matches them fairly closely.