dealraker

On this note Dinar...it seems to me that spending and capital are going to things like crypto, travel, technology related...and not towards the things that make the rails hum with volumes. Of course that can change and maybe the prices of the stocks are reflecting it all.

No...but I will check it out. I had as posted liquidated my 401-K from the 5 stocks (including NSC, GD, LHX, RTX) on the November 11 run-up - but of course hold the NSC I inherited. I was thinking that today may be a start to re-investing. Thanks. I think, given some volumes, the rails are loaded for EPS gains. Volumes are the issue, I don't think pricing or OR's are the ticket to the future for the rails.

Dang...T ain't even in office and all the world's problems are already fixed! Go Trump! The ultimate fixer!

Ya'll just relax, you know as well as me that we elected Trump because he, and only he, can fix it. Plus we all know from reading this forum that Musk is by leaps and bounds the smartest man ever on earth. Knowing the above just implement wise capital allocation...that's crypto and Tesla...well maybe a tad of Broadcom. The pres once again has the Senate and House - nothing to stop him yet again - and interest rates are going down...right? It is off to the races! Ya'll quit fussin' and join forces in peace, then beat some sense into our value stocks. I'd particularly like some help with my railroad stocks...you know those things lookin' to be right now on the rail to living hell? LOL...life is great...if you can stand it!

Trump/Kushner have been wildly successful using the guv for financial survival. Both were on the edge of failure, now both set for life. The Brookfield/Kush-Kush deal is one I have found so interesting because although Brook did the let's pretend half sale of Westinghouse - the 5th Ave thing in my view is a disaster in $ terms. My view as a BAM/BN shareholder never changes, I think they are absolutely average at best investing yet over-the-top successful being feeboys and girls. Dalrymple is on the money with his financial investigation but it is years yet till it gets GE'd. He's a needed start - yet he's an idiot to subject himself to the absolute belief of the Brook bunch. Welch walked on water and drowned his critics for years after GE was obviously failing. The Trump/Gabbard et als trait that is so successful is the grievance/provocation. This mindset and verbset is now just like Fox News, it is the mainstream of the US. Hilariously the most powerful and successful political man in the Western world is a Brit named Rupert who literally owns America yet can't even control his dang children. The 60 years now of Trump owning the media, over-and-over wild euphoric anticipation of his future success followed by absolute chaotic financial failure - this is his his crazy attractive model of sucking in an endlessly rotating in-and-out bunch of believers . His grossly indebted $2.2 bil casino outlays that shortly later got appraised at $800 mil...and then for fear of losing all their $ banks handed T a debt less huge stake in what was left --- this is the model that is repeated throughout T's life. The more he fails others, the more attractive he becomes...literally because he survives. Start fires and crawl out with what's left is Trump 101. He's damn polished at it. I consider T nothing but a low IQ low mental energy goofball, his scrambled mind can't stay on one issue long enough to get past Monopoly's start. If he has success with any of this impulsive plan then we'll be better off. Because if he starts his typical failure cycle then he's going to put into place that game that is so incredibly attractive to those millions of followers (who too haven't been successful) who look externally for blame and outcomes: He'll go on the attack of anyone who isn't kneeling before him. Elon is the brains here, he was on his knees right in front of all the world before T. Elon is 100% a guv sponsored man, he has been for a long time. And it works.

I just watched a video of Michael Saylor saying he will be buying Bitcoin at "one million and then probably at one billion." So 21,000,000 times 1,000,000,000 is $21,000,000,000,000,000. Yep 21 quadrillion I think...fifteen zeros. There is a lot of wealth coming to Bitcoin holders! What will happen with all of that wealth?

Since I'm out on the limb this morning... What businesses are most at risk? My view is that while AI is absolutely as meaningful as "we" think it is, the capital mis-allocation towards dealing with it will inevitably prove unsustainable. So in my view the businesses getting sales and profits from AI spending are the most at risk of losing market cap over time, no matter what the growth of those businesses is today. Doesn't mean they won't stay in business and stay profitable, but Intel, Cisco, EMC, etc were....well, Intel, Cisco, EMC.....

The "time" thing Spooky gets hard, really hard. An example I've mentioned is Abbey Joseph Cohen and her incredible status that really got started in the mid the late 1990's. Even when she began her crusade of big cap promotions these stocks were (based on the outcome...any time period after 2001 - it matters little as they all prove it) over-valued. Not over-valued for that time period, but over valued even considering their prices decades later. Yet the parade she led kept on for years and she still had her reputation - despite the outcome - all the way up until 2008. What popular "analysts" today are wrong? Well, you don't know yet.

So being both old at 70 and having lost my parents at a very early age basically I got throwed (pardon my grammar...but I am from the south) out into the real world financial abyss long-long ago. So I've seen things, things that see-saw such that it makes the mind come to life with both excitement and anticipation. Here's a good summation: I own the best lots in my waterfront development, a development that was done by the family builders supply and millwork where now I am a 25% (was 12.5% until last week) owner back in 1980 and I had enough position and luck in the family to get to choose my place to live. Today my southeast facing waterfront (don't ever buy a west facing home on water unless you want to boil in summer and freeze in winter) home and land across the street (large acreage...3 digits of land acreage) would sell for a big price. I have seen three times in my life living here where I would have had a reasonable amount of difficulty selling my home for 50% of tax value, and once where I'd have been lucky to sell it for 25% of tax assessment. Times change. Today is not one of those times when things don't sell well. The world is full of people in full mode of desperately wanting eggs from others baskets to come to their basket! Fear ain't happening, but greed is glory! Today in this world we just gleefully elected to the pres a man who has been a comical failure in business, yet a resounding success in consistently establishing and maintaining a profitable cult-like following. But business performance wise, that's net profits from sales, the pres stuff shows there's only a massive decay of wealth for 50-60 years from keeping up with inflation. It doesn't matter today because things with little sales and no profits have huge market caps and these aren't just the pres's holdings such as DJT, these wildly "valuable" things are literally everywhere. Money chasing what moves the fastest is the theme. It isn't new and it is not unique whatsoever that the desperation to chase dance comes. It happens repeatedly over time. There will be a time when I won't be able to sell my home and land for 50% of tax assessment value again. Count on it. The more intense today's chase becomes, the more intense the future discount. Miss-allocation of capital is the long game weighting temporarily obliterated by the chase of voting. Welcome to boom and bust capitalism. Oh, one last thing: Could the Donald become "capitalism's" most disliked person- even for no real logical blame at all? If you aren't quite sure of that answer you've got "wet behind the ears" as we say in the south. Life is great...if you can stand it!

Most railroad discussions are stuck in the past, they discuss operating ratios and HH. Here we go, slowing getting up from the Rip Van Winkle to what has been the New New Thing for a while. Very simple and obvious place to start right here. And unrelated to this article....yes the CP thing does seem to make sense to me. https://www.trains.com/trn/news-reviews/news-wire/carload-considerations-will-pricing-above-inflation-work-indefinitely/

Wells Fargo likes the AJG acquisition: Equity Research Price Target Change — December 9, 2024 Insurance Brokers Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Reaffirm Overweight On Accretive AssuredPartners Transaction Overweight Price Target: $344.00 Our Call We raise our estimates and price target for AssuredPartners deal. Our EPS estimates go up 9.6% in 2025 and 9.2% in 2026 and price target rises to $344 (from $315). The expected deal accretion and favorable multiple paid had AJG outperforming peers. Out year estimates and price target go up: Our 2024 EPS estimate is now $10.03 from $10.11 while our 2025 and 2026 estimates go to $12.60 and $14.30, from $11.50 and $13.10. The changes to our estimates reflect the incorporation of the AssuredPartners transaction as AJG stated on its call there was no other change to its financial condition since it last gave guidance. Our price target rises to $344, using a 27x multiple on our 2025 cash EPS (24x 2026) plus $4 per share for our clean coal DCF. More thoughts on the multiple paid: Gallagher is paying 14.3x EBITDAC (13.3x when adjusting for the $1b DTA with the transaction), which screens favorable to other large broker deals (EBITDAC multiples of 20x and above). We think AJG benefited from the PE partners looking to monetize the assets (they will be fully out of AP with this transaction) and they are also known not to pay up for deals (Gallagher also received a great price when buying Willis Re in 2021). Synergies could be conservative: Gallagher is looking for expense saves of $100m, 5% of AP's expenses, which could prove to be conservative in our view (Aon/NFP was a lower 3.5% of expenses, while MMC did save 15% of expenses with JLT). Further, the revenue synergies outlined in the deal ($60m) could be higher as well as they ignored any revenue synergies from the Risk Management business as well as on the wholesale side. Thoughts around owning a broker in the midst of a large deal: While we recognize there are often pitfalls to large broker deals, we believe the financials outlined with this deal are achievable and the expected accretion as well as low multiple paid has us viewing the deal favorable, even against the backdrop of an industry that often sees noise with large deals. AJG has a strong track record of integration larger deals stemming from its internaional expansion in 2014/2015 and Willis Re. Valuation post transaction: AJG shares are now trading at 23x 2025 and 20.4x 2026 EPS estimates, favorable to historical levels given the expected accretion with the deal (average P/E is just around 23x). On an EV-to-EBITDA basis shares are at 15.9x 2025 EBITDA post the equity issuance (and our assumption of $4.5b debt issued with the deal), versus the peer group (ex WTW) at 17.3x on average and 17.1x prior to the transaction. For additional thoughts see first look note & conference call takes.

This is a big one: GTCR Announces Sale of AssuredPartners to Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. for $13.45 Billion

It is going to be interesting to see what the Canadian rails deal with as to the DJT administration. While I own them all and don't consider the stock prices crazy high I'm still not aware of what's coming along to give them more volume and sales growth outside of inflation pricing. I bought NSC averaging in around a bit below $200 during the East Palestine tragedy but as of yet I've seen no other stock prices I'd be tempted with given what seems - at least to me - to be little coming along to up their game. NSC will get their OR down some from where it is now but that's already in the stock price it seems to me. That said, I'm an long term owner but I'm not an expert of the cycles and trends that make would help make a good timed buy.

coffeecaninvestor mentioned the railroads on another topic and alluded to a post I had just made recently as to RR sales of the last ten years. I'm actually a tad more upbeat on the railroads than that post may have presented. So basically the rails have been left out of the most recent years run-up of the markets, and they should have been left out. Norfolk had the disaster thing going and the stock of course temporarily tanked, but for the most part all of the RR's have just been spinning in neutral for a while. I'd think that will change, if and when there's more stuff on track to be shipped. All of the RR's are equipped to run hot should it - the stuff that needs to be RR shipped - come. So in that respect I do think the industry is in good condition and ready. Valuations are appropriate, not high or low in my limited opinion. So over time I think the RR's to be a decent place to invest.

This one has got my attention: https://seekingalpha.com/news/4357638-scam-parody-sign-of-a-top-enron-relaunches-as-a-crypto-play