dealraker

JOE...maybe FSLR and LHX. A few aren't too short term, longer than most would think.

We were bought out.

None of these are either meaningful nor are they something I'd suggest. But out of sheer boredom in my tax free account in the last two weeks I have bought the following because they were somewhat cheap I think the economy (that's Biden's economy LOL) is far stronger that most wanna admit (and I think interest rates will go up too!!). None except a couple will be long term thangs: SHEL TTE MDT HAL JOE (added) UBER GSK CVX COP FSLR (rebought) AZN SRE (on the fires issue) CWT LHX CWK (added) MSGE NGG C (added) EWBC (added) SLB OXY FMC LYB DOW

As I've posted several times there's been ways to make an incredible amount of money being "associated" with Fairfax through the years regardless of Fairfax's stock price. The Hub insurance brokerage connection is or was the most important wealth builder for me outside of Berkshire and AJ Gallagher and probably the most significant investment I've ever made. It was just as successful as Fairfax has been in the last few years, an incredible literally guaranteed investment - but only in plain sight if you were associated with Fairfax.

There will be millions who feel empowered by the economic gains "entertainment" of others - two mostly - for reasons only a psychologist can interpret. Get on the ride nowadays with DJT and TSLA stocks as the campaign ain't askin'.

I have been a shareholder of Fairfax since 1994. Having Berkshire and Markel plus a mentor who held many of the out-of-the mainstream stocks was my ticket, it certainly wasn't some grand expertise or early recognition of greatness of Prem - although he was considered special. It was a culture I particpated within, a unique fun place to interact and invest. Although I was in the insurance business, most in that business had little knowledge of Fairfax, it was Marshall Johnson from McDaniel Lewis in Greensboro...his making a market for small insurance co's and banks and the links he had that awakened me. I checked my online and I added to Fairfax 27 times both on its journey down and up in the last few years. And finally, much to my surprise, Fairfax is now my 4th largest holding behind AJG, Berkshire, and Meta. I added enough although not near enough to both Meta and Fairfax to make a difference. That's something I probably would have done but not nearly to the extent I did which was fueled by participating on COBF. As I've often mentioned, knowing who to follow is my best skill, a thing I think most investors far under-rate as something that can, if you are programmed like me, greatly affect investment performance.

Sold Blue Owl today. I can't remember the discussion we had here a couple of years ago and who was a part of it, but it turned out wildly successful as we all bought around $10 per share and out at $24-ish. I sold APO but will retain BX because of insane gains the tax man, same less so with BN and BAM. I think these asset managers are wildly popular...too popular. It doesn't always go well for them especially with exponential gains so quickly. At least to me that's the case. Wasn't long ago that these guys were very unpopular.

As far as tops are concerned, as we watch the major beer/wine/spirits makers stocks plummet, I've had a view for some time that I think we now see: A major wipe-out of craft breweries. A few will survive of course.

Yes.

I simply find those that use Berkshire/Buffett/Munger for self-gain to be blandly down on the lowest of any possible level ----- simply incredibly annoying. But so many obviously first class people feel strong connections to these guys and enjoy doing so. I think it is probably related to personality types. LOL! Life is great...if you can stand it!

Berkshire and AJG are 4/5ths of my stuff; Lowes, Norfolk Southern, Erie, Brookfield(s), Brown and Brown, Mondelez, Coke, Pepsi, Markel and Fairfax take me well over 90%. I'm guessing I'm up a bit over 20% this year. I bought Erie after 1994, added some to Fairfax a few times in recent years, messed with Brookfield, and bought Cadbury (eventually Mondelez) in 2000. Other than that no significant portfolio changes since 1994. Lowe's, Fairfax, and the brokers began in the 1993-94 period; Coke and Pepsi go back to 1975. Markel began at the IPO 1987 or 88- can't remember, family worked there and the desire to buy was widespread among those who were knowledgeable financially. Norfolk Southern was a 1/27th (27 grandchildren, me the youngest) of grandmother's inheritance linked to the family's North Carolina Railroad stock. Much bigger railroad today. I held North Carolina Railroad for years until the State of NC bought us minority shareholders out at a bargain to continue the el-cheapo lease to Norfolk. I think business, not stocks. Hate trends and hot sectors...although I have owned Google for some (guessing) 12-15 years...can't remember. Sold MSFT to buy land. And I do now trade some in my 401K! (Which I love doing!) Probably wrote something in error, but I do that constantly and can't figure out how to do better. Oh...by the way, of the stocks I've bought related to the posters I follow here on COBF (their rants...not mine!)? I think I'm doing about 35% annual a year with those! .

Reciprocity...one of Cialdini's 7 for a reason.

I just watched a video of Michael Saylor saying he will be buying Bitcoin at "one million and then probably at one billion." So 21,000,000 times 1,000,000,000 is $21,000,000,000,000,000. Yep 21 quadrillion I think...fifteen zeros. There is a lot of wealth coming to Bitcoin holders! What will happen with all of that wealth?

Since I'm out on the limb this morning... What businesses are most at risk? My view is that while AI is absolutely as meaningful as "we" think it is, the capital mis-allocation towards dealing with it will inevitably prove unsustainable. So in my view the businesses getting sales and profits from AI spending are the most at risk of losing market cap over time, no matter what the growth of those businesses is today. Doesn't mean they won't stay in business and stay profitable, but Intel, Cisco, EMC, etc were....well, Intel, Cisco, EMC.....

The "time" thing Spooky gets hard, really hard. An example I've mentioned is Abbey Joseph Cohen and her incredible status that really got started in the mid the late 1990's. Even when she began her crusade of big cap promotions these stocks were (based on the outcome...any time period after 2001 - it matters little as they all prove it) over-valued. Not over-valued for that time period, but over valued even considering their prices decades later. Yet the parade she led kept on for years and she still had her reputation - despite the outcome - all the way up until 2008. What popular "analysts" today are wrong? Well, you don't know yet.