james22

BRK

Overrated, I think. I held a lot of cash all thru the 2010s. All so I could buy in 2020 at prices I could have bought mid-decade. Every decade is different, of course, but have to recognize the opportunity cost can easily equal the opportunity.

I'd like to learn more about his thinking at the time. Did he recognize an opportunity others did not? Or did he take risks (change in terms/conditions) others weren't willing to?

Corrected for you.

Yep. Thanks for sharing.

He has to know that. But he only has to outlive Putin.

Won't like what he's learned. In Rostov-on-Don, where people are applauding and chanting 'Wagner is Power' as Wagner fighters pack up to return "according to plan." Wagner's "March for Justice" was a significant litmus test that shows whom Russians actually support. After Wagner withdrew from Rostov-on-Don, protestors came out against the police, chanting "shame on you" and waving Wagner flags. Russians are now even more united in their view that the state is corrupt, cowardly, and inept.

Seems Prigozhin was being pushed out by Shoigu and so had to take his shot. Once he found he didn't have air support and so couldn't advance on Moscow, he then had to take the deal offered (Shoigu dealt with, Wagner amnesty, and exile). Putin actually may come out pretty well if he can now blame the war on Shoigu and Prigozhin out of the picture.

I would have guessed a fake coup as equally likely, but nope: President Vladimir V. Putin on Saturday pledged “decisive actions” to quell what he called a treasonous, armed rebellion by his erstwhile ally, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, as he addressed the nation for the first time since the uprising started to unfold the day before. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/24/world/russia-ukraine-news#putin-strikes-a-tough-tone-in-his-first-address-since-the-uprising-started

Shoigu may not be suicidal, but seems he's the fall guy if this is a fake coup.

Because so much of what happens in Russia, is elaborate state-sponsored theater meant to distract attention from actual problems, it is not completely unreasonable to suspect that the currents events may not be a real coup. Here's a possible alternative explanation. According to one version of the "fake coup" theory, Russia is losing the war slowly but surely, Ukraine is poised to liberate large swathes of land, but Putin needs an internal off-ramp, a way to place the blame on anyone except himself. For months, Prigozhin ruthlessly criticized the Russian military something that Putin cannot publicly do, fomenting what appears to be a conflict between Wagner & the Russian military. But, he doesn't criticize Putin, who is the one ultimately responsible for Russian losses. One of the hallmarks of Putin's reign has been interfactional fighting. The country is controlled by competing clans who control and get rich off of various parts of the state budget, while Putin remains safely above the fray, making sure that no clans gets too powerful. The real or fake conflict between Wagner and the Russian military gives Putin a few options, one of which is to say that Russia is facing internal turmoil and he needs to withdraw troops from Ukraine to protect Russia. That way a military retreat can be covered up. In addition, any staged turmoil inside Russia can be used as an excuse to tighten control over society, by limiting Internet access for example (there are signs of this already). Tightening the screws may be necessary for Putin to remain in power in the wake of a military defeat. Both Prigozhin (formerly Putin's chef) and defense minister Shoigu are close to Putin and they're not suicidal. Whether there is an actual coup taking place in Russia or Kabuki theater remains to be seen. Either way, Putin's regime is as weak as it has ever been.

Prigozhin now says that the Russian military has ordered air strikes on Wagner convoys inside Russia, but thanked Russian air force pilots for refusing to obey those orders. In the latest update, Prigozhin says that Wagner has entered Rostov and was warmly welcomed by Russian border guards. He said that 18-year-old conscripts were deployed to stop them, but that they let Wagner pass through. He says that Wagner will not stop.

Russian state news has just confirmed that Wagner is attempting a coup d'état in Russia. Russian sources say that the Russian 45th Brigade (VDV/paratroopers) have refused orders to deploy against Wagner. It's important to note that Russian soldiers generally respect Prigozhin and Wagner more than their own senior commanders whom they see as cowardly and corrupt. More and more Russian generals are appealing to Wagner to stop the coup attempt. Here, the 1st deputy head of the GRU (military intelligence), General Alekseev says that the Russian military neither attacked nor plans to use force against Wagner and begs them to stop. The Russian military is deploying troops, including special forces in Moscow and barricading the center of the city as it prepares for what looks more and more like a coup. Russian general Surovikin says that the Russian Ministry of Defense ordered him to return from the front and he appeals to Wagner to obey Putin's orders and to stop their armed convoys. He says that Wagner fighters are comrades in arms and that what they're doing helps the enemy. Russian sources report that 2 Wagner military convoys that are each dozens of kilometers long are heading into Rostov from Russian-occupied Ukraine (Donetsk). Russian border guards are letting them through even though the border was ordered closed. Turmoil in Russia: -some Russian TV channels have shown Prigozhin's anti-MoD speech. -state of emergency in Rostov-on-Don (possibly Moscow) with heavy military/MVD presence; checkpoints on road to Moscow. -Border between Rostov region and Russian-occupied Donetsk has been closed. There are reports (not yet officially confirmed) that Moscow is being put into a high state of emergency, known as plan "Fortress." This would be done when there is a serious security threat such as violent riots, terrorism, or a coup attempt. Prigozhin accuses Russian defense minister Shoigu of coming to Rostov-on-Don to oversee a military operation that was supposed to destroy PMC Wagner and that the helicopter pilots and artillerymen who were involved were kept in the dark about the real target of the operation. Prigozhin says that 25,000 of his men are on a mission to take on the Russian Ministry of Defense and to restore justice, but says this is not a military coup and the actions of Wagner will not affect Russian troops. He says anyone can join them on their justice crusade. Prigozhin has just announced that after the attacks on his men by the Ministry of Defence, Wagner will clean house, punishing those responsible. He says they will kill anyone that gets in their way and restore justice to the army and all of Russia. Just in: Prigozhin's channels release video, claiming rocket strikes on Wagner PMC camps. Reports of numerous casualties. Eyewitnesses suggest the attack came from the rear, implicating Russian military forces. https://twitter.com/StateOfUkraine

Prigozhin, whose Wagner troops have pulled back from Bakhmut, also attacked Russia’s current war efforts in the face of Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Directly contradicting Putin’s claims that Moscow has fended off Kyiv’s counterattack, Prigozhin also accused the Russian military leadership of lying to the public about the scale of its losses and setbacks in Ukraine. “The Russian army is retreating in all directions and shedding a lot of blood … What they tell us is the deepest deception.” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/23/wagner-chief-accuses-russias-military-of-attack-and-says-evil-leadership-must-be-stopped

Conflicting data out there. This as of 2020: $5M = top 3% Top 1% = $11M https://dqydj.com/net-worth-percentile-calculator-united-states/

Coup?

Last year India surpassed China as the world’s most populous nation. That might be a marginal consideration until specifics are examined. The fact is, China’s population fell for the first time in 60 years, and China is now the fastest-aging nation in human history. As most know, the population replacement rate is 2.1 children per woman. China’s 2011-2020 census (as far as CCP numbers can be trusted) shows their replacement rate is 1.3 at best. Peter Zeihan has reported the replacement rate of women in highly populated urban areas like Shanghai is 0.7! Replacement rates, and these charts, tell us that China’s demographic collapse will occur within one generation – within a human lifetime! China’s worker-age population peaked in the last decade, and by 2050 will be less than half of what it was in 2020. The population collapse of China is not just starting, it is happening right now! https://andmagazine.substack.com/p/china-is-a-dying-paper-dragon

Create a BTC ETF and the next high will be later that day.

Frailty, thy name is SEC.