james22

Always entertaining.

Better than Blue Falcon, certainly.

While might sound odd, I like BRK more than a US Growth/Tech fund or index for such exposure. They've admitted they've missed great companies at fair prices in the past so they're looking for opportunities, they've demonstrated a willingness to invest big when they find one, and they've the cash to take advantage. And better positioned in Value until an opportunity presents itself.

I'd think many value investors have to be thinking the same. But I'm fine being (mostly) out of Tech today. If we undergo a real Value rotation, there's no hurry. But I'll look for the opportunity in a way I haven't in the past.

I give him credit for identifying the FANG stocks back in 2013 and adding Apple in 2017. “Put money to work in the companies that represent the future,” he said. “Put money to work in companies that are totally dominant in their markets, and put money to work in stocks that have serious momentum.” https://www.cnbc.com/2013/02/05/cramer-does-your-portfolio-have-fangs.html Heeding that call would have paid off pretty well...

No doubt.

I tried to keep open a limit order at 20% below BRK's price in the hope of catching a flash crash upon the announcement. Gave it up after a year. Too much work. That was maybe ten years ago...

Sure, a significant dip wouldn't last long. But also why would be so very low risk.

I like to think it might dip significantly for a minute when Buffett passes? Hope I can take advantage of it.

I still believe.

OAK, but owned BAM at the time (still do) so didn't really matter. Less regrettable than confirmed my BAM position, actually. So disregard.

+1

That I could sell it to a greater fool for $247/share?

When people say things are different, 20 percent of the time they are right. John Templeton

Dean Alfange said it best 70 years ago: I do not choose to be a common man. It is my right to be uncommon. I seek to develop whatever talents God gave me—not security. I do not wish to be a kept citizen, humbled and dulled by having the state look after me. I want to take the calculated risk; to dream and to build, to fail and to succeed. I refuse to barter incentive for a dole. I prefer the challenges of life to the guaranteed existence; the thrill of fulfillment to the stale calm of utopia. I will not trade freedom for beneficence nor my dignity for a handout. I will never cower before any earthly master nor bend to any threat. It is my heritage to stand erect, proud and unafraid; to think and act myself, enjoy the benefit of my creations and to face the world boldly and say – 'This, with God's help, I have done.' All this is what it means to be an American.

To paraphrase SowelI: because it isn't greedy to want to keep the money you have earned, but it is to want to take somebody else's money.

Was a good year for Energy (XLE +46%).

audiosciencereview.com

Mauldin's Smart Money Monday note: Now I see the buy signal I’ve been waiting for with Fairfax… For starters, the stock is the cheapest it’s been since the financial crisis. Then there’s the business in India… See, Fairfax recently released its second-quarter earnings. And I found a critical piece of information buried in the press release. One of Fairfax’s holdings, and Indian insurance company called Digit, just became a lot more valuable. Digit recently raised a ton of money from a handful of venture capitalists. This pushed its implied total value over $2 billion. But Fairfax still has Digit on the books at $540 million. The change won’t show in Fairfax’s financials until it releases its third-quarter results. When that happens, it should increase the company’s book value by $61 per share. That’s an 11% increase. This might seem like a minor detail. But it’s a major buy signal for an insurance company like Fairfax. CEO Prem Watsa bought $150 million worth of Fairfax stock not too long ago… Watsa has built his career on shrewd stock picking. It’s a big reason Fairfax has done so well over the past 35 years. And last year, he made a massive wager on the company he knows best—his own. Insiders buy for one reason: They think the stock will go up. It’s fairly common to see insider purchases worth a few million dollars. But $150 million? That’s extremely rare. It’s also a great sign. Shares of Fairfax have already climbed about 40% since the purchase. But my research indicates they still have a lot more room to run. Remember, this stock is still extraordinarily cheap. Today, Fairfax trades at around 0.75X price-to-book. That is just too cheap for a high-quality insurance company. As a reference point, Berkshire Hathaway trades at a substantial premium to its book value—around 1.4X. Were Fairfax to even approach a more reasonable 1.2X price-to-book, the stock would have nearly 60% upside from current prices. I like the setup here. Fairfax Financial is a solid, well-established company with a formidable CEO. But its stock is still undiscovered by most investors. I just saw the buy signal I’ve been waiting for. Consider picking up shares now while they’re still ultra-cheap. https://www.mauldineconomics.com/smart-money-monday/meet-the-oracle-of...-toronto

Sure, but I'm newly retired and dealing with sequence of return risk. Hoping my small value, emerging markets, financials, infrastructure, and energy won't fall as much as growth in any correction/crash, but they'll still likely fall. I've a cash bucket of several year's expenses, but it can take up to ten years for markets to recover. I don't see any "durrrr" options to derisk today. Might add long-term treasuries as a diversifier, but dunno.

MAY 6 2019: “I think stocks are ridiculously cheap if you believe ... that 3% on the 30-year bonds makes sense,” Buffett says. AUG 9, 2021: 30-year bonds <2%

WRT overvaluation, no one is more pessimistic than GMO. Yet: While our glass-is-half-empty view on Growth is sobering, there is a very different way to look at today’s environment. Indeed, relative to traditional equity benchmarks, we think it is one of the best opportunity sets in over 20 years, as in one of the best times to look different and take active risk. https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/2021-mid-year-letter-equity-allocation-strategies/

My guess? Financial repression juicing equity returns for several years before stagflation. https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-we-are-entering-a-time-of-financial-repression-ld.4628

Why not buy after good news? Give up the immediate jump, but hopefully capture some of the move to par. Without risk of loss or opportunity cost.

The government will always win when the Supreme Court imputes to Congress a definition of a conservator never adopted in the history of the world, by broadly reading a narrow exception for incidental powers to let a conservator gobble up all the money for itself—an action that could never be challenged in court as an abuse of power. A unanimous travesty. https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardepstein/2021/07/13/the-supreme-court-throws-fannie-and-freddies-private-investors-to-the-wolves/?sh=4740ad6c15e3