james22

Had the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac SCOTUS decision gone our way, those who bet big would have looked like heroes. Instead: goats.

Fallacy of the Formula? There are many, many more investors without any reputation who blew up because they made large, concentrated bets.

BRK @ $296

Could a $5 billion investment from Berkshire Hathaway make a difference here? Potentially, yes. The $30 billion in deposits FRC got from its fellow banks gave it a cash infusion. If it got another $5 billion by selling 10% yielding preferreds to Berkshire, it would increase that amount by 16.66%, but without a possibility of it being withdrawn. The preferreds would create a $500 million annual cash outflow, which is much more manageable than the cash drain created by billions of dollars' worth of withdrawals in a week. So, yes, a $5 billion investment from Berkshire could potentially tip the scales enough to make FRC an investable stock. https://archive.ph/sEkus

Ally Financial gains amid vague Buffett takeover speculation https://archive.ph/ChNwT

Whatever BRK does, it will be with insider knowledge. That's helpful.

No, 2008 (GS) or 2011 (BAC). Both earned great returns. All the more reason for him to act now to benefit BRK after he is gone. Eh.

But he knows that. Why wouldn't he assure BRK's continued success by converting $100B cash into a dividend stream (and remove the risk of a successor spending it less wisely)?

For decades, traditional manufacturing jobs were gobbled up by automation and offshoring. This led Robert Reich to postulate a hierarchy of work in which the “symbolic analysts” – essentially, people who worked with information as opposed to actual stuff – were at the top, while people who worked with actual things were at the bottom. With a remarkable lack of sympathy, journalists and politicians told coal miners and auto workers that they should “learn to code” as their jobs vanished. But it turns out that the people whose jobs are at the most risk from AI are, well, the coders. https://instapundit.substack.com/p/the-coming-symbolic-analyst-meltdown

Why isn't buying BRK tomorrow just about risk-free? Knowing the Fed has to bail out the banks if any Buffett investment/intervention fails? Even he if backs away, he has to know what will then happen and act on it. Insider trading is usually pretty profitable.

Great. Just hoping Buffett remembers BRK is his legacy, not "saving" the banking system (again). I'll add Mon morning if there's no announcement before then.

That only makes me believe he'll drive a hard bargain. If this is to be his swan song, I'd hope he'd make it one that really benefits BRK rather than "saves" the system.

*crosses fingers*

40 years later, it's still pretty special.

This. What you read outside or/after school should vastly dwarf what you read inside/during anyway.

However, insiders complained as the bank grew at breakneck speed, its top management became inordinately focused on social issues... SVB executives were also deeply committed to social justice, according to several of its ex-employees. “I almost felt like I was at work on a college campus,” said another former executive, who recalled weekly internal “TED talks” on social issues and classes on “how to make sure you were not committing a microaggression”. https://www.ft.com/content/6e23a2fb-484e-418d-b309-bf558b3a6a17

For nearly 2 months, a short seller was warning on Twitter that Silicon Valley Bank was about to blow up. ‘It was sitting there in plain sight.’ https://fortune.com/2023/03/10/silicon-valley-bank-svb-short-seller-william-martin-twitter-2-months/

A literature course today isn't even about literature. If you were to take a literary theory course, you might think it would be about literature, but it’s really not. It’s about all the various forms of oppression on earth and how we can see them playing out in literary works. https://www.samharris.org/blog/fighting

No question. Doesn't sound like the UK CRO did. It may come out that she knew the UK executives knew the risks taken by the parent and were just hoping like hell for the best. So no reason to do her job.

The number one risk to any subsidiary is the health of it's parent company. You'd expect it's CRO to worry about that. https://news.sky.com/story/bank-of-london-weighs-rescue-bid-for-uk-arm-of-silicon-valley-bank-12830933

The gay/minority/female UK CRO was the most capable person for the job? What are the odds? Pro-diversity initiatives are part of the CRO role? I don't believe being woke is to blame for/excuses SVB's strategy. They were simply greedy. But it might explain why the CRO didn't check the strategy (that wasn't really their job).

I don't know if that excuses them. If the UK CRO choose being woke over addressing the risk (or wasn't capable), seems a diversity issue. In their defense, I suppose they could have hired a diversity figurehead who wouldn't question the strategy in less than nine months if they wished.

I'm guessing the previous CRO left because of the risk and didn't want to take the fall. Nor did any potential candidates once aware of the issue.

I'll let Buffett take advantage for me.

Tilson: My Trip to Ukraine Last Week: The Ukrainian Tiger Is About to Devour the Russian Bear https://assets.empirefinancialresearch.com/uploads/2023/03/My-trip-to-Ukraine-last-week-Whitney-Tilson-3-13-23-1.pdf